The Tonga volcano has thrown an unprecedented amount of water into the atmosphere

NASA satellite data shows the volcano hurled more than 146 teragrams of water — enough to fill 58,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools — into the second layer of Earth’s atmosphere known as the stratosphere, where the ozone layer resides and just above airplanes fly. According to the study, the amount released corresponds to 10 percent of the water that is already in the stratosphere.

“This is the first time this type of injection has happened in the entire satellite era,” which includes water vapor data going back to 1995, said Luis Millán, lead author of the study and an atmospheric scientist at NASA. “We’ve never seen anything like it, it was pretty impressive.”

Volcanic eruptions emit many different types of gases and particles. Most eruptions, including Hunga Tonga, release particles that cool the Earth’s surface by reflecting sunlight back into space, but they usually dissipate after two to three years. However, very few water vapors blow that high. This water vapor can stay in the atmosphere longer – five to ten years – and store heat on the Earth’s surface.

Volcano eruption near Iceland’s airport sparks travel fears and risky photoshoots

Millán speculates that the water vapor could have a warming effect on the planet’s surface temperature once the accompanying cooling particles dissipate in about three years. He’s not sure how much the temperature would rise, as that depends on how the vapor plume develops. The team theorizes that the accelerating warming will continue for a few years until circulation patterns in the stratosphere flush the water vapor into the troposphere, the layer where Earth’s weather occurs.

“This is just temporary warming, and then it will return to where it should return,” Millán said. “This will not exacerbate climate change.”

NASA atmospheric scientist Ryan Kramer added that given the numerous factors driving temperature changes on yearly timescales, the volcano’s warming effect could also be lost in the noise, depending on its magnitude.

On a shorter one Over time, the increased water vapor could also exacerbate stratospheric ozone depletion, said Susan Strahan, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA.

Stratospheric ozone protects the earth’s surface from harmful UV radiation. Chemicals that deplete the ozone layer were largely phased out by the 1987 Montreal Protocol and subsequent amendments.

Strahan, who was not involved in the study, explained that the excess water vapor will affect many of the chemical reactions that control stratospheric ozone concentrations. NASA satellite data from July already shows a decline in ozone levels compared to previous years in the place where excess water vapor is most concentrated. She added that a full analysis needs to be done to find out the cause.

“There’s probably an impact right now, but what we need [is] One model that tells us is by what mechanism(s) the impacts occurred. Meteorology and chemistry will almost certainly both play a role — the questions are how much, where, when?” Strahan said in an email.

Strahan also said the excess water vapor could enhance the formation of special noctilucent clouds, which appear as shimmering, ghostly wisps in the night sky. They occur about 50 miles into the atmosphere, higher than the stratosphere, and are among the rarest, driest, and tallest clouds on Earth. For many people, the clouds offer a remarkable view of the sky. However, the researchers believe that a noticeable change in these clouds would only occur later, depending on how long it takes for water vapor to travel upwards in the atmosphere where the clouds are forming.

Rare glow-in-the-dark clouds are the most vibrant in 15 years

Overall, Millán said the excess water vapor isn’t in itself anything to worry about, just “something that’s just interesting and happens.” He and his colleagues use this opportunity to test their computer models, which help us to understand climate change and weather forecasts in general.

“We have these huge amounts of water vapor moving in the stratosphere and we can test how well the models reflect its movements in the atmosphere,” Millán said. “This volcano will create a lot of work for many researchers.”