What will the Calgary Flames’ defensive lineups look like next season?

The Calgary Flames go into next season with a charged defensive core. The addition of MacKenzie Weegar has improved the right flank of the Flames’ blue line and provided the club with three quality right-handed defenders. That gives head coach Darryl Sutter some options for configuring his defensive pairings.

What might these pairings look like?

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that the Flames will start opening night with Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev, MacKenzie Weegar, Nikita Zadorov and Oliver Kylington as the six defenders.

Correct shots: Weegar, Tanev, Andersson

Left shots: Hanifin, Kylington, Zadorov.

Here are a few options for how the Flames’ defense could look as the 2022-23 season begins.

Option 1: Upload the top 4

The first option Darryl Sutter has is to charge his top two pairs.

First pair: An interesting possibility for the Flames is to pair Weegar and Tanev as the de facto number one pairing. We all know what Tanev can do. He’s one of the best defensive backs in the NHL. Pairing him with a high-end puck-moving defender like Weegar has the makings of an elite pairing. One could argue that he has a chance to become one of the best in the NHL. Weegar would play at left flank, as he has done in a pairing with Aaron Ekblad in Florida for the past two seasons.

Both Tanev and Weegar have posted elite numbers over the past two seasons. Putting them together could be a nightmare for opposing players to face off against.

(League ranking of the 210 defenders who played over 800 minutes over the past two seasons, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.)

Second pair: Hanifin and Andersson developed strong chemistry as a pairing last year. They essentially played the entire season together. According to the Natural Stat Trick, Hanifin and Andersson went 5v5 to outperform their opponents 66-46 and had an xGF% of 56.19%. There is no need to break up this pairing as they have established chemistry and results.

Third pair: A third pairing of Zadorov and Kylington will have a risk-reward element in their game. The reward could be this pair working well together as Zadorov could play a defensive, down role, which could open up opportunities for Kylington to join the onslaught and attack a bit, similar to how Kylington played with Tanev last season.

There is also a risk factor in putting these two players together. First, they are both left-handed. One of them has to play offside, which is difficult. Tasks like backhanding the puck off the board and making breakout passes on the weak side are no easy task, even for NHL defensemen. Kylington would probably play on the right side since he has experience with it and is a more adept puck mover.

Second, both Zadorov and Kylington tend to make the occasional costly rallies with the puck. If these two guys are playing together and one is on their offside, it could potentially lead to some defensive struggles.

Overall, the top two pairs in 5v5 would get a lot of ice time. Sutter would rely on them for big match-up minutes while protecting Zadorov and Kylington.

Option 2: The Tampa Model. Load a page

I call this the “Tampa model” because for the past three seasons, Tampa Bay has been charging the left side by putting its top three defensemen on different pairs. In this setup, Lightning head coach Jon Cooper was able to more evenly distribute ice time for their three defensive pairings. This also ensured that there was always at least one of Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev or Ryan McDonagh on the ice.

The Flames could have a similar lineup with their top three defenders all being right shots.

First pair: In this configuration, Hanifin and Andersson would likely take the role as top unit.

Second pair: Calgary could keep Kylington and Tanev’s pairing together. They were one of the best 5-on-5 duos in the NHL last season, beating their opponents 57-35 while standing together on the ice. They showed great chemistry and proved they work well together.

Third pair: A Zadorov-Weegar combination would be a luxury for Sutter. This is a pairing that could go well together as Zadorov initially plays a defensive game. Much like Kylington, Weegar could create more chances offensively and capitalize on that part of his game.

In this setup, Sutter could have one of Andersson, Tanev, or Weegar on the ice at any time 5-on-5. This could give the Flames more balance where they wouldn’t have to rely as heavily on four players. It would also ensure that every defender plays at their strong side, something NHL coaches love.

Overall, the Flames are in a good position when it comes to how they distribute their defensive pairings. This is arguably one of, if not the deepest, group of defenders Calgary has had to work with in the salary cap era. It will be fascinating to see Darryl Sutter harness the talent of his blue line.

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