ATP Paris Masters Day 4 predictions including Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Gilles Simon

It should be an entertaining fourth day at the ATP Paris Masters as all eight round of 16 matches will be played in Bercy. As always, here at LWOT we will be offering our predictions for every game on the schedule including Novak Djokovic vs Karen Khachanov. But who will reach the quarterfinals?

ATP Paris Masters Day 4 Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov

Head to head: first date

As the youngest No. 1 in ATP history, Alcaraz is an interesting period in his career as he enters tournaments like this with a level of pressure he’s never experienced before. To be fair to Alcaraz, not many others know what it’s like to occupy the penthouse of the rankings at the age of 19, never mind. The Spaniard’s results have been mixed since the US Open; He lost to David Goffin in the first round in Astana but also reached the semifinals in Basel, where he lost to Tour formman Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Grigor Dimitrov also reached a semi-final on indoor hard court this fall and put on a solid run in Vienna after struggling all year. For the Bulgarian it was his first semi-final since Monte Carlo. This week Dimitrov was solid in Paris, winning in straight sets against Botic van de Zandschulp and Fabio Fognini. Alcaraz looked good in their opening game as well, defeating Yoshihito Nishioka 6-4, 6-4. It’s sure to be an interesting match, but Alcaraz is world No. 1 and the favorite for good reason.

Prognosis: Alcaraz in the 2nd
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Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe

Head to head: de Minaur 3-0 Tiafoe

Alex de Minaur scored his best win of the season (and probably his career) in his last game, defeating last year’s finalist and 2020 champion Daniil Medvedev. De Minaur was also an underdog in his opener at Bercy but managed to knock out the in-form Sebastian Korda in three sets. Frances Tiafoe has managed to regain the form he showed earlier in the autumn as he recorded his first consecutive wins on indoor hard courts of the season, going 1-2 in Stockholm and Vienna and not defending a semi-final and a final.

The American looked better in Paris, however, not dropping a set in victories over Lorenzo Sonego and young wild Jack Draper. The 23-year-old Australian has won his three previous matches despite Tiafoe clinching a set in each meeting. He will also come into the competition fresher, spending half as much time on the pitch as de Minaur in the week so far. He enters the match as a slight underdog looking at their duel, but leans towards Tiafoe in this match.

Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Tommy Paul

Head to head: first date

Pablo Carreno Busta took his time getting used to the indoor hard this fall but got better with each event, defeating Vienna finalist Denis Shapovalov in his last match. That was one of Carreno Busta’s best career wins indoors. Meanwhile, Tommy Paul clinched the best win of his entire career. The American had struggled indoors to get to Paris, pulling off a decent upset over Roberto Bautista Agut in the first round before beating Rafael Nadal in the second round.

The second seed was playing his first match since a fourth-round loss to Frances Tiafoe at the US Open, meaning Nadal has lost half of his matches against Americans this season. Both players are likely to see their opponent as a good draw at this point in the event and should have a lot of faith in them. Paul, who seems to be enjoying a really special week, should almost be in the lead, although an improving Carreno Busta won’t make things easy for the American.

Prediction: Paul in 3
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Felix Auger Aliassime vs Gilles Simon

Head to head: Auger Aliassime 2-0 Simon

Two players at opposite stages in their careers. Felix Auger-Aliassime is shaping up to be a real threat on the ATP Tour while Simon makes his last stand. The Canadian’s talent was never in question, but Auger-Aliassime gained a reputation for falling at the final hurdle of his young career ahead of this year. The 22-year-old cracked the code in 2022 and won his first ATP title in Rotterdam before dropping three straight times in October. Auger-Aliassime arrived in Paris after winning titles in Florence, Antwerp and Vienna and winning 13 straight games. However, Auger-Aliassime looked tired in his first set as he edged out Mikael Ymer in a tie break in the third set.

Simon went into his final tournament without any pressure. The 37-year-old did well at his last French Open in May but has largely struggled for wins even at the Challenger Tour level over the past 15 months. This week, however, the Frenchman has pulled off two incredible victories, beating Andy Murray, who had beaten him in 16 of his previous 18 encounters prior to this week, and ending world No. 11 Taylor Fritz’s ATP Finals hopes. With Simon playing well above his level and Auger-Aliassime showing signs of vulnerability in his final match, this will be an incredible fight and match of the day. It’s hard not to go with the Cinderella story here.

Prediction: Simon in 3

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