Steelers vs Browns: betting odds, tips, prediction

Steelers vs. Browns Odds

The Browns extended a 13-point lead over the Jets with 2 minutes remaining. Nick Chubb inexplicably ran for a 12-yard touchdown when he could have slid into the limits to guarantee a win. It then led to a truly insane sequence of events that led to her humiliating defeat.

I imagine the Browns will be happy to play football Thursday night looking to progress from that game as soon as possible.

Matchup Analysis Steelers vs. Browns

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Steelers and Browns statistically match:

Steelers vs. Browns DVOA breakdown

Total DVOA	22	22
Pass DVOA	22	24
Rush DVOA	20	20

Total DVOA	4	8th
Pass DVOA	8th	9
Rush DVOA	1	18

When the Browns have the ball

Jack Conklin has no injury designation ahead of Thursday’s matchup, meaning he will be making his season debut. One of the best run blockers in the game, his return couldn’t have come at a better time.

The Browns will likely lean heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in what should be a much easier matchup on the ground with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt on injured reserve.

The Patriots averaged 4.9 yards on the ground in their first idle game for the Steelers last week. I expect the Browns will continue to use Jacoby Brissett as their “game manager” quarterback. He’s attempted just one pass 20 or more yards down all season.

In a game where we could see wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph, making it harder to throw the ball down, the Browns’ offense is specifically designed to thrive in this very matchup.

When the Steelers have the ball

The Steelers offense is in tatters right now, and it’s likely a mix of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Mitch Trubisky and offensive line fault. It’s unlikely to be resolved in a week where they only have three days to prepare for the game, so I assume their struggles will continue.

Pittsburgh are averaging just 21.4 yards per drive (third lowest) and currently are unlikely to be able to exploit the Browns’ primary weakness on defense, which is going down 20+ yards. Trubisky has consistently been one of the worst downfield passers in the league, and that has continued this season as he is just 3 of 11 (27%) on pass attempts 20 yards downfield.

I’m leaning towards the Under for today’s game. The Steelers rank last at 7.5% in explosive play rate and have the third-lowest average yards per drive (22.2). They’re unlikely to resolve their issues in the short week, and considering they’ll struggle to pick up points here will feed into the Browns’ run-heavy, ultra-conservative offense.

The Browns offense should dominate possession time in this game as it relies heavily on the running game. However, Cleveland faces some regression when it comes to scoring points. The Browns have scored on 52% of their drives, which ties the Bills and Chiefs for the league lead. Based on their underlying stats, we would expect them to score closer to 39% of their drives going forward.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense has allowed 39% of their drives to score, but the underlying data suggests they should be closer to 30%. So I think we could see some value in Browns Unders in the near term.

Unfortunately, that total has dropped from 40.5 to 38.5, so I’ll only be tilting down. I’ll wait and see if that number moves back up towards 40.5 before possibly betting on it. However, I can’t imagine the number going down any further.

Be sure to follow me on the Action app to get notified when I end up betting on this or anything else in this game. I would consider betting this again if it goes to 39 or 39.5.

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