Thanks to the Taurid meteor swarm, we could see a dramatic increase in the number of fireballs shooting through the night sky over the next few weeks.
Every year, from September to November, the Earth is pelted with ice and dust by two broad, overlapping debris streams in space. As a result, twin meteor showers will light up our night sky, emanating from the constellation of Taurus.
The northern and southern Taurid meteor showers appear to originate in the constellation of Taurus. The source of both of these meteor showers is likely the same object — an ancient, shattered comet. Photo credit: Stellarium
Even when two meteor showers are active at the same time in the same part of the sky, the “Taurids” are usually quite weak. While the August Perseids or December Twins can produce up to 100 meteors per hour during their peak alone, we typically only see a handful of meteors per hour from the Taurid showers, even at their best. That’s because the meteoroids are fairly spread out in the Taurid debris streams. Therefore, the portion of the electricity that passes through the earth in each year is usually quite sparse.
However, this is not always the case! Embedded in the stream is a cluster of larger meteoroids known as the Taurid Resonant Swarm. In the years that Earth meets this swarm, the gravel-sized debris will ensure that Taurid fireballs will light up the night.
Three Taurid fireballs captured by the NASA All Sky Fireball Network in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Credit: NASA
The last time we appeared to have seen a similar Taurid Swarm event was in 2015. That year saw unusually high Taurid activity, according to Western University meteorologist Peter Brown.
“Our Southern Ontario Meteor Network cameras captured 54 taurid fireballs from October 31 through November 4 alone, compared to 22, 18, and 32 taurid for the entire month of November in 2014, 2013, and 2012,” Brown told Spaceweather.com back then.
This year, astronomers expect the Taurid swarm to reappear.
1/3 This year, Earth will pass through the resonant swarm of the Tauride meteor shower. Some have theorized that it may contain more than 100M asteroids and be the only known concentrated source of potentially dangerous objects. We’re organizing a monitoring campaign to find out! pic.twitter.com/BHI8PEBG8p
1/3 This year, Earth will pass through the resonant swarm of the Tauride meteor shower. Some have theorized that it may contain more than 100M asteroids and be the only known concentrated source of potentially dangerous objects. We’re organizing a monitoring campaign to find out! Denis Vida on Twitter: “1/3 This year, Earth will pass the resonant swarm of the Taurid meteor shower. Some have theorized that they contain more than 100m asteroids and may be the only known concentrated source of potentially dangerous objects. We’re organizing a monitoring campaign to find out! pic.twitter.com/BHI8PEBG8p / Twitter”
As a result, we were able to see an unusually high number of fireball meteors every night from October 24th to November 11th. The best time for viewing is in the hours around midnight when the constellation Taurus is high in the sky.
What are we likely to see?
Typical meteors can appear bright when viewed under dark skies. However, they usually cannot keep up with urban light pollution. Because of this, we advise stargazers to get as far away from city lights as possible to spot a meteor shower.
To see fireballs from the Taurid swarm, however, you can watch from pretty much anywhere. You really only need three things: reasonably clear weather, a good view of the night sky, and patience.
As always, patience is required at these events. Even in the best-case scenario for a Taurid swarm to appear, we won’t see hundreds of fireballs throughout the night. Even the numbers reported by Peter Brown in 2015 were only about one fireball per hour.
However, that is still far more than we usually see at this time of year! So if you’re heading out at night for the next few weeks, don’t be surprised if you spot some extraordinarily bright meteors darting across the sky!
Dangers in the Taurid Hive?
Astronomers are interested in finding larger objects that may be embedded in the resonant Taurid swarm, according to Denis Vida, a meteorite researcher at Western University.
“Some have theorized that it may contain more than 100 master asteroids and be the only known concentrated source of potentially dangerous objects,” Vida said a tweet On Wednesday. “We’re organizing a monitoring campaign to find out!”
Potentially dangerous objects are near-Earth asteroids and comets, which are about 20 times closer to the moon and large enough to cause significant damage if they hit us. According to NASA, there are 2,270 known potentially dangerous asteroids, which accounts for about 8 percent of the population of near-Earth objects. Of these, only 17 are actually on NASA’s Sentry Risk Table, each with a very slim chance of hitting Earth sometime in the coming decades.
There are two known large objects in the Taurid streams – asteroid 2004 TG10 and comet 1P/Encke (the sources of the northern and southern Taurid meteor showers, respectively). Neither is seen as a threat to us.
The orbit of the Taurid meteor shower around the Sun is shown in this diagram along with the Taurid resonance swarm. Credit: Western University
However, there is suspicious timing between Earth’s passage through the “outgoing” section of the Taurid Current (from early June to mid-July) and one of the greatest impacts in recent history – the Tunguska event of June 30, 1908.
This coincidence has some researchers wondering if the object that exploded over Siberia about 114 years ago came from the Taurid Current.
Locating larger objects in the passing Taurid swarm could solve the mystery of what happened on June 30, 1908. At the same time, it might also give us a better idea of whether the swarm poses a threat to us in the future.
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