76ers vs. Celtics odds, pundits’ pick, prediction: Improved Philadelphia has value on opening night (October 18)

Odds between 76ers and Celtics

After four long months, the NBA regular season returns Tuesday night, kicking off with a terrific double-header on TNT as the Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers in a clash of Eastern Conference powerhouses.

The mood of these two teams is shifting in opposite directions. The Celtics organization has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons. On the other hand, the Sixers are heading into the season with plenty of optimism following news that James Harden is coming on form and some solid off-season acquisitions.

The Celtics started as four-point favorites, but the line has shifted against the defending Eastern Conference champions. This number has been reduced to 2.5 as of Monday afternoon. Let’s break down this game and see if this line move was justified.

Will the 76ers make a leap with better depth?

The Philadelphia 76ers face another disappointing playoff exit. Harden had a poor performance in the postseason, but off-season reports that he was returning to form have left fans optimistic that he can return to his superstar form. After joining the Sixers midseason, he shot just 40.2% from the field and never developed much chemistry with teammate Joel Embiid.

Tyrese Maxey enjoyed an incredible leap in his sophomore season as one of the Sixers’ most reliable and efficient scorers. He thrived on the starting lineup, averaging 17.5 points per game on 48.5% shots from the field and will look to continue his rise as a star in this league.

PJ Tucker, Montrezl Harrell, De’Anthony Melton and Danuel House round out a list of clever, low-risk off-season acquisitions. Daryl Morey continues to hoard and target former Houston Rockets to build his squad.

I can see each of these players making a huge impact on a team struggling with depth. Tucker, Melton, and House are great full-backs and 3-point shooters that help distribute the floor. Harrell benches Energy while Embiid rests.

The Sixers finished the season a modest 11th in offensive rating (113.0) and 12th in defensive rating (110.2) according to NBA Advanced Stats. With their roster moves and a more engaged Harden, I expect those two metrics to improve this season.

Embiid played a career-high 68 games last season. The success of the 76ers’ season will depend heavily on Embiid’s health. I expect he will be unstoppable in the paint against a Celtics team without Robert Williams III coming up deep. Tucker and Matisse Thybulle are two fierce defenders who will make life difficult for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Will the Celtics defense remain without a Timelord Elite?

The Celtics had an impressive 2021-2022 season, but their quest for the NBA championship fell through after they lost to the Golden State Warriors in The Finals. The Warriors’ experience and depth proved too great, and the Celtics immediately addressed those concerns in the offseason.

They acquired Malcolm Brogdon, Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari to strengthen their bank. That excitement quickly faded after Gallinari tore his ACL while playing for the Italy national team at the FIBA ​​World Cup.

Shortly thereafter, head coach Ime Udoka became embroiled in a scandal that led to his all-season suspension. Boston will now start this season with an interim head coach, Joe Mazzulla. He will be tasked with leading this young team to success amidst all these distractions.

The Celtics led the league in defensive rating last season (106.2), according to NBA Advanced Stats. They were one of three teams (Celtics, Suns, Jazz) to finish in the top 10 in both offense and defense. One of the biggest contributors to the defensive success, however, is Williams III, who will miss the opening months of the season to recover from knee surgery.

On/off numbers indicate the Celtics’ defensive rating falls 3.7 points when he’s off the court, according to the basketball reference. Additionally, the Celtics were 5-11 ATS as home favorites last season with their bouncy big man off court, according to Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. Without Williams III, Al Horford and the Celtics front will have a hard time stopping Embiid.

76ers Celtics pick

The line movement toward the Sixers is warranted. Her stock is trending higher as Harden gets in shape, solid offseason pickups and a full training camp with her two stars.

On the downside, the off-season distractions, new coach and Timelord’s injury are all reasons the Celtics may be slow to start this season. They struggled to start last season and I see the same thing this year.

I’m making this line Celtics -2 so I like the sixers to cover the spread here. Make sure you buy lines as the spread ranges from 2 to 3.5.

Choose: Sixes +2.5 (to +2)