Let’s clear up all the necessary caveats first: I’m not a gambling “expert” which I think would be a “sharp” or maybe a “promoter” in correct usage if I was selling my picks. I am none of those things. What I am, however, is a brand ambassador for Coolbet because I have loved betting on sports since long before the government sanctioned it and I particularly like their site. Oh, and they also give me some money to tweet about this hobby. But the whole “ambassador” thing isn’t why we’re here today, at least not only.
We’re here because however bookmakers set boundaries ahead of an NHL season, it makes for some fascinating conversations about hockey. It’s one thing to do the super vague things we all do before the year starts with our friends. You know the “yeah I think the Sens are going to be a lot better this year” part, “I dunno man I think this is finally the year the Bruins are going backwards”, etc etc.
So for example… do you think the sens are getting better? Well that’s the step we often skip in these chats: how much better, special? They had 73 points last season and finished 27 points from a playoff berth. When you say you think they’ll do better, are you saying they’ll get 75 points? Or all the way to the playoffs, with maybe 97 or 98 this next season? How much better exactly?
The books set Ottawa’s season point over/under line at 87.5, up somewhere 14 or 15 points, which is still 10 points behind the playoffs… if you agree with the books. So what do you say, will the sens accumulate more or less than that amount?
I personally won’t touch this line as I think it’s one of the more accurate ones out there. I think they will be a lot better with Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux and Cam Talbot and internal improvement. But unfortunately, the Lightning and Panthers and Leafs and Bruins all still exist, and Detroit and Buffalo should be better (and Montreal could be too), so the line ahead is still tough to hack.
However, there are some other lines that I see differently from the books. Let’s take a look at some of them, shall we? (FYI, most of these bets pay out in the -110 or -115 range if you were interested in actually making them rather than just discussing them.)
PLAYER POINTS
One more note: I can’t stand betting unders on things like player points. It’s supposed to be fun, this whole betting thing. I don’t make a living from it, it just spices up boring games. So you won’t find me betting under player points. There’s nothing to cheer about. Go on.
What fascinates me most is this line, what do you say: Jack Eichel, over/under 71.5 points?
I’m intrigued by it because it’s almost a bet not on its exit, but his health. Surely a healthy Jack Eichel as the number one center and a man in the number one power play unit of the Vegas Golden Knights would decimate 71.5 points, right? The other guys who currently have roughly the same lines at Coolbet are Roope Hintz and Tomas Hertl. Last year that score fell between Jesper Bratt and Tage Thompson. They’re all good players, but shouldn’t a healthy acorn be a step above?
Kasperi Kapanen, over/under 13.5 goals?
Kapanen scored 20 for the Leafs a few years ago. He’s had a couple of rocky COVID seasons but has certainly had a proper summer to prepare for a pretty normal season. He’s on a two-year contract to earn hay and earn a big NHL contract before things go wrong with him, and he’s 26 years old. I may be biased here, having worked with him a bit on the undertones, but he’s just too talented for this line.
Patrik Laine, over/under 33.5 goals?
The dude scored 26 goals out of 56 last year (a 38-goal pace) and still had those “Nobody scores that goal but Laine” moments. Before last season he was generally a healthy player. He has a unique goal-scoring ability and will be joined this year by Johnny Gaudreau, who will be the best linemate he has ever had. I actually think this is a no-brainer when he even plays 70 games. Laine could turn 50 this year.
A potential choice: Alex Ovechkin over/under 45.5 goals?
Ovi had a Casual 50 again last season, but my God: it’s got to slow down at some point, right? I feel like the guy who bets red after 15 black numbers in a row at roulette. IF I CONTINUE PREDICTING THIS, I HAVE TO BE RIGHT ULTIMATELY: I think Ovi will finally slow down for a breath and only score 42 points this season.
TEAMS
I know there are some statisticians out there who like it when New Jersey and Anaheim surprise, and their respective over/under lines for points are 89.5 and 80.5. I don’t touch them either, although I like it when both of them exceed those totals a bit.
Another biased choice: I like those New York Islanders over 91.5 points.
The Islanders’ three season points (prorated across 82 games) from last year: 103, 96.5, 104. This is a team that made two conference finals before last season’s disastrous start, with the long road trip (while UBS Arena ended war), followed by a COVID outbreak that essentially brought the season to the turf. They got a lot better in the second half and I just don’t think they’re the team we saw for much of last season.
That Red Wings Line is 82.5 points. And they are a whole new team.
They added David Perron and Andrew Copp, both of whom are difficult to play and have a degree of scoring touch. They added Ben Chiarot and Olli Maata and Dominik Kubalik and a goalkeeper in Ville Husso. They will have seven or eight new players – good players – added to their 74-point team last year. I like it when they erase 82.5.
A few potential unders? The Bruins line is 95.5, and they start without Brad Marchand for a few months, and the same goes for Charlie MacAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk. Those are massive casualties and they’re in a tough division. Oh and the Leafs line is a whopping 109.5 points. Opening the season without John Tavares and Timothy Liljegren, all the bottom teams in their division improved and they swapped Jack Campbell for Matt Murray/Ilya Samsonov. Bet on it, boy, BOLD.
As for the overall picture bets for teams, Rangers have their third chance to win the Metro, behind Carolina and Pittsburgh. A win in the Rangers division would pay you +325, and I’m pretty bullish on NYR. On the other hand, you can bet on each team missing or making the playoffs The books believe in the Dallas Stars. They are -172 to make the playoffs and +145 to miss the playoffs. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn aren’t getting any younger, and I’m not sure the “supporting cast” can match last season’s performance. Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, Winnipeg… they’re in a tough league. I would consider this “miss” bet.
AWARDS
Now we come to a section that as a price picker I personally can’t bet on. But a few ideas that make sense to me going preseason: Owen Power isn’t the Calder Trophy favorite, but looking at the guys around him, he might be the best bet at +500.
He plays in the hottest media market of the five guys listed above, so the guy will catch the eye, and he’s already been great everywhere he’s played. He’s a household name before the puck drops in the first game, and that stuff helps. Cale Makar is the absolute favorite for the Norris. But if you bet on all three of Victor Hedman/Roman Josi/Adam Fox you could be in a good place in terms of value if Makar gets hurt or stumbles out of goal or something like that:
And finally, two things I want to leave you with before you start digging through all the preseason fun bets, and both are advice:
1. If you want to bet on a team winning the Stanley Cup, go for it. The odds you get on the favorites aren’t much different now than they were in April, so it’s best to check out the teams in this window if you think they’ll be coming out of the gates hot (which will result in that their payout will decrease). . I cut this right after the two Albertan teams, both of which are +1500:
The avalanche are +425. Don’t make that bet, it’s here for you in April.
And finally,
2. The obvious: know your limit, play within it. It’s fun to talk about this stuff with friends when you don’t want to play.
Good luck with your predictions for 2022-23 – the only one I’m sure I’ll be right about is that it should be loads of fun.
#Lets #betting #markets #view #NHL #season
Leave a Comment