What Australia’s flu season could herald this fall in the US

Australia is nearing the end of its worst flu season in at least five years, which could be a sign of what’s in store for the fall and winter in the United States.

As of August 28, nearly 218,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza had been reported to the country’s national notifiable disease surveillance system, according to data from Australia’s Department of Health and Elderly Care.

The season started earlier than usual and during its peak in June, more than 30,000 cases per week were reported to the NNDDS, according to the latest surveillance report. This compares to 25,000 cases being reported each week at the peak of the 2017 season.

In addition, there have been 1,708 flu-related hospital admissions in Australia so far this season – of which 6.5% were admitted to intensive care units – and 288 deaths linked to the virus.

Meanwhile, there was only one flu-related hospitalization and no deaths last year, Health Ministry data show.

Researchers and modelers often look to the Southern Hemisphere, which experiences its flu season first – typically May through October – to predict what the season will be like in the US, and experts tell ABC News we should take Australia’s warning.

“We often look to Australia and the Southern Hemisphere as a signal of what to expect,” said Dr. John Brownstein, epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital and contributor to ABC News. “Obviously it’s not a perfect 1-on-1 match, but more often than not the severity of the flu season in Australia is a good correlate of what we might expect and it helps us prepare.”

Cases have not been reported as many in the US over the past two years as in previous years, due to COVID-19-related mitigation measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing, and school and business closures.

A Wayne State University study looking at Detroit Medical Center found that neither adults nor children tested positive for influenza A or B during the 2020-21 flu season. However, during the 2019-20 flu season, 13% of adults and 20% of children tested positive for the virus.

Another study examining Akron Children’s Hospital in Ohio found no cases of influenza A and only two cases of influenza B were detected during the 2020-21 season — a 99% decrease from the previous season.

But with COVID-19 expected to peak again in December 2022 or January 2023, and with lower flu immunity in the population and fewer mitigation measures, this could be the first time Americans have had to deal with two respiratory viruses at once, which could have an impact another strain on hospital systems.

“Given the concerns we have about healthcare capacity and healthcare burnout, there is no way we want parallel epidemics at a time when our healthcare systems are few and far between,” Brownstein said.

Health experts said they strongly recommend Americans get their flu shot by the end of October for the best protection, but say it’s never too late, even if people get the shot later in the season.

“One of the possible things that could cause the flu to come back with a vengeance is low immunity,” said Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News. “It’s definitely more important now than ever because of the possibility of a bad flu season and a bad COVID season.”

She added: “Indeed [Tufts was] still require [flu vaccination] of any new hires or suppliers by June 1st because last flu season lasted so long so it’s never too late.”

The experts add that getting the flu can lead to serious illness and death, so it’s important to reduce the risk of infection as much as possible.

“While COVID has dominated headlines for years, we must remember that influenza is a serious infection, and while most influenza patients recover, we must acknowledge that influenza results in tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths,” he said brownstone . “Some influenza infections can lead to serious illness and death. Just as we are trying to mitigate the risk of COVID infection, we must try to make similar efforts against influenza infection.”