Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Tips & Predictions – Thursday Night Football Week 3

Both teams go into Week 3 with identical 1-1 records, but for very different reasons. Cleveland has had the mother of all heartbreaks while the Steelers’ offense is lifeless. Our NFL betting tips show why you should back the Browns in the first half.

The AFC North takes center stage in Week 3 when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cleveland Browns for Thursday Night Football on September 22 – and we break down the spread, totals and gwith our best NFL betting tips and predictions.

Pittsburgh is 1-1 but has endured an ugly outing in New England in Week 2, with the offense struggling for gains and the Black-Yellow faithful demanding a quarterback change. Starting QB Mitchell Trubisky is unable to push the ball down the field, sparking rumors of a move to rookie Kenny Pickett.

Cleveland won’t have to wait long to exorcise the ghosts of a historic collapse on the New York Jets on Sunday. The Browns botched a 30-17 lead with less than two minutes remaining, but that hasn’t stopped early action from climbing on Cleveland’s spread.

Steelers vs. Browns best odds

Steelers vs. Browns tips and predictions

Cleveland is looking to shake off the stench of the epic Week 2 collapse as soon as possible and has a good chance of holding its own against a Pittsburgh defense already running with fumes as 2022 begins.

The Steelers stop unit was on the field for more than 77 minutes in their first two games and is now playing against a very physical attack from the Browns in a short week. Cleveland is yielding nearly 55% of snaps and has a relentless ground-and-pound fueled by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who have this running game after two weeks at EPA’s #4 per handoff.

Not only do the Browns dominate possession time (No. 3 in TOP) by moving the chains on 29% of first downs, but their pace has teams hot on their heels in the first 30 minutes – they set the 8th fastest pace in seconds per game in the first half (27.38). That early urgency in and out of the huddle could break the steel curtain before halftime.

Cleveland is ranked No. 2 in 1H Offense DVOA at Football Outsiders, and while the Steelers are ranked No. 3 in terms of 1H Defensive DVOA, Pittsburgh is in a more difficult position given the workload on defense, playing on the road in a short week and a supplemental offense that ranks second worst in first downs. The Steelers have a two-week win rate of just 38.7%, including a 37.9% first-half rate.

As spreads rise, last Sunday’s shenanigans may scare away Browns bettors on the game-wide spread, but I’m comfortable laying Cleveland -3 at home in the first 30 minutes.

my best bet: Brown’s first half -3 (-110 at bet365)

Steelers vs Browns betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread Analysis •Over/Under Analysis •trends to know •game info •injuries •weather

Spread Analysis

The look-ahead line for this classic rivalry was set at Cleveland -4 following news of Deshaun Watson’s suspension in the summer. The spread reopened to Brown’s -3.5 on Sunday night after Cleveland’s collapse against the Jets.

Cleveland had that game in hand, but a late score from Nick Chubb — rather than taking a knee and ticking off the clock — left the window open for New York. The Jets would hit an onside kick before the go-ahead touchdown with 22 seconds remaining and win back. It was a miracle finish that doesn’t reflect how dominant the Browns were in the other 58 minutes of the game.

Cleveland also received a better-than-expected QB play from veteran Jacoby Brissett, who ended Week 2 with 229 yards on 22 of 27 passes — an average of 8.5 yards per attempt. That’s far better than what we’ve seen from Trubisky, who is picking up just over five yards per pass at the start of 2022.

That opinion led to early action on this game, and pro betting groups hit the shorter range on Monday – lifting Cleveland from -3.5 to as low as -5.5 in the first 48 hours of action. There are some injuries on the Browns’ defensive line that is keeping some markets at -4.5 and -5 lows.

This line movement contradicts what some sportsbooks are reporting in regards to splits. DraftKings has taken 73% of the bets and 72% of its early money on Pittsburgh as a street outsider — it seems the public is pissed at the Browns — but astute players are giving Cleveland the benefit of the doubt.

Over/Under Analysis

The over/under total opened at around 40 to 40.5 points, and early game hit the under, pushing that number as low as 38 points in some trades.

Both offenses are executed centrally, with the Browns giving up nearly 55% of snaps earlier in the year and the Steelers not only seeing poor pass production but also putting up a lackluster offensive line against a Cleveland pass rush that can get sacks without an extra to bring speed cameras.

Pittsburgh’s defense — despite the absence of All-Pro TJ Watt — is still a force. The Steelers have allowed just 37 points in regulation in two games and sit 6th on the EPA allowed per game while also counting six takeaways (5 INT, 1 FFR).

In two encounters in 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield at center (arguably better QBs), the Browns and Steelers faced closing totals of 43 and 43.5 points. The lower produced Winners in each of these meetings combined for only 25 and 40 points.

Steelers vs. Browns betting trend to get to know

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 9-5-1 SU in Cleveland during his tenure at Steel City (since 2007), with those games ending 5-10 over/under (66.7% unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Browns.

Information on the Steelers vs. Browns game

• location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
• date: Thursday 22 September 2022
• kicking off: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Amazon Prime Video

Steelers vs Browns key injuries

Steelers vs. Brown’s weather

Monitor game conditions with our live NFL weather information and learn how weather affects NFL betting.

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