begin to see the beginning of some trends.
However, we won’t know if these are trends for a few weeks, but by then it may be too late if you’re hoping to snag some players from the waiver.
Of course, it could be a game or two that skews the numbers. Nonetheless, it’s good practice to examine players in the top 100 for leaderboard shots, ice time, percentage of power play minutes played, etc. It could give you a player to follow as a potential breakout candidate, or you could find someone worth stashing.
Most of the players on this list are undrafted in most leagues. I’m not saying you should drop struggling superstars like Patrick Kane and Jack Hughes for some of the names on this list. However, we all have players to drop. For example, in a 12-team, 25-player Yahoo league I’m in, I took a chance against Sammy Blais, who was expected for a top-six role but so far is injured and hasn’t played a game.
Below are the top 10 far too early takeaways from the first few games of the season.
10. JJ Moser gets a lot of ice age
For those who haven’t been following, the Coyotes play with a top powerplay unit with three forwards and two defenders. However, Moser, 22, was one of those defenders in a move that perhaps no one saw coming. He has spent nearly 80 percent of the team’s power play minutes on the ice, helping Moser to two power play points in two games. He also plays shorthanded minutes, accounting for about 64 percent of all Arizona penalty shootout minutes on the ice. This has resulted in Moser’s 25:30 average ice time to date, the fourth-highest nightly average of any NHL player. Even on a team as offensively lazy as Arizona, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
9. Zeros across the board
There were a few players who would have been better off not including them in your lineup. For example, Jonathan Drouin has zero points, zero shots, zero PIM, zero plus/minus, zero powerplay points, etc., despite only playing one game. The same goes for Nate Schmidt and Shane Wright. Ryan O’Reilly also has zeros other than a minus one (although he also has six faceoff wins, if that’s what your league counts). Perhaps most frustrating was Jakub Voracek, who fired six shots in three games and not much else. The rest of his stat line is zero goals, zero assists, zero PIM, zero hits, and zero power play points. He also has a worst minus six in the league, which is worse than a clean sheet.
8. Beginners don’t get the Ice Age
Anyone who claims hockey is now a young man’s game has never met NHL coaches who seem determined that rookies “earn” their spots and pay for their mistakes, which veteran players don’t . Shane Wright played 6:14 on his first appearance and was a healthy scratch for the second game. Jack Quinn had the least ice time of any Saber forward in Buffalo’s first game of the season, and in the next game his ice time was cut by nearly three minutes. Dylan Holloway was quickly pulled out of a top-six role in his first game and is averaging 8:16s over two games. Marco Rossi led the league in preseason but centers the fourth tier during the regular season. Juraj Slafkovsky is averaging under 11 minutes a night in three games with the Habs. Alexander Holtz played alongside Jack Hughes in the preseason but is in the third tier in the regular season. Kent Johnson averages 12 minutes per competition in Columbus. Sure, there are a few exceptions, but this proves once again why you don’t draft rookies in year-old leagues.
7. Daniel Vladar is said to have more starts
File this under “News that would have been nice to know three weeks ago, before the majority of drafts happened.” Calgary Flames head coach Darryl Sutter told Calgary media Saturday morning that he plans to give Vladar one start a week. That might not sound like a lot, but that puts Vladar at about 26 games. That will have a slight impact on the production of Jacob Markstrom, who would launch about 56 games, down from the 63 games he launched a year ago. With some strong play, Vladar might be able to grab another start or two. Fewer starts mean fewer wins for Markstrom.
6. Marc-Andre Fleury keeps fighting
The Savages have done much to ensure Fleury is their main man in the Nets with little competition. Last year they traded Kaapo Kahkonen to San Jose. In the summer they sent Cam Talbot to Ottawa to pack. But Fleury has struggled with Minnesota, and the Wild have left themselves in a situation where they don’t have proper support (nothing against Filip Gustavsson). In 11 games with the Wilds last season, Fleury had an under-average .910 SV% and 2.74 goals against average. But he won nine of eleven games as the team scored 44 goals in those eleven games. Fleury kept fighting in the playoffs. This year is similar for the soon-to-be 38-year-old as he gave up seven goals in his first game and four first-half goals on Saturday night before being drawn.
5. A revival of Carter Hart
Many had thought the Flyers were going to be terrible this year. They received poor results for fan confidence and optimism, and many thought the team would be a contender for first overall in the NHL draft. It’s early days, but it seems like John Tortorella has been a huge positive influence on Hart. The Flyers goaltender has two wins in two games, plus 2.00 goals against average and .940 SV%. Many have given up on Hart, but Tortorella has a proven track record of bringing out the best in his goalies. Maybe this is the start of getting the best out of Hart.
4. Boone Jenner’s face-off skills
I wrote in preseason that Jenner could be a long shot for a 40-goal season, largely because he was expected to start the season on an equal footing alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine while also being in the top- Powerplay unit plays. Although everything has come true so far (apart from the goals) he could remain at the top thanks to his face-off skills. He leads the league with 47 faceoff wins (along with just 17 faceoff losses for a staggering 73 percent win rate). He has won 12 of 13 man-advantage faceoffs and won at least 14 faceoffs in each of his three games. He’s consistently been above 50 percent faceoff win rate for years, but last year he finished with at least 10 faceoff wins per game for the first time. Right now he is at 15.67.
3. Justin Schultz again mans a power play
Though he was once a power play specialist (he hit 20 man advantage points in one year with Pittsburgh), he hasn’t been able to replicate that success in recent campaigns. He barely saw the ice in his final years with the Capitals when the team had a power play, so Schultz may have been overlooked before the season started. However, he was given an opportunity to go on a power play again and responded with two power play points in the first game. He’s been on the ice for about 60 percent of Seattle’s power play minutes and is available in 94 (!) percent of Yahoo’s leagues as of Sunday.
2. Surprising Ice Ages
As mentioned in the introduction, a good strategy is to look at the Ice Age guides early in the season to see if there are any surprises there. We’re still at that stage of the season where a game can skew the numbers. So you’d have to look more closely at unexpected surprises to determine if this is sustainable. For example, did the player experience an extension of the Ice Age at the end of last season? Do they only see an increase due to a teammate’s injury? Did the coach say he thinks the player deserves it or does he want to see what the player can do with more Ice Age? We mentioned Moser before, but here are five other surprising names among the top minutes per game:
Valeri Nichushkin: 22:04 is the fourth-highest among forwards, pushed up thanks to 6:05 power play minutes per night.
Travis Boyd: 20 minutes a night while centering the Arizona top line while also on the top powerplay unit.
Nicholas Paul: 19:20 per night. While 3:49 of those are shorthanded, he plays with Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn with equal strength.
Noah Cates: With an average of 19:37, he already seems to have earned John Tortorella’s trust. He and Joel Farabee tied for 4:44 of Philly’s shorthanded minutes Saturday night (the next highest combo was at 1:56). He also averages 2:30 power play minutes per game and is second among the Flyers forwards for consistently strong ice time per game.
Joel Farabee: At 20:52 a night, he plays shorthanded and even strength with Cates, but is also on the top powerplay unit.
1. Austin Matthews is a hit machine
In three games, Matthews has 14 goals, which is fifth in the league. He had a career-high 67 goals last season, but it took him 73 games to do that. So far he has had at least three hits in every contest. He won’t finish on the 383 hits he’s on pace for, but even if he hits 250 hits it would make for an insane fantasy season. We look at Matthews adding another element to his fantasy play that would put him close to Alex Ovechkin when Ovi was in his prime. Imagine a season where Matthews finishes with 60 goals, 100+ points, 350 shots, 20 power play goals, 35 power play points and 250 batting. This could cement him as the number one draft pick in the year-long fantasy leagues next season.
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