NHL Fantasy: Top 10 sleeper goals for the 2022-23 season

Hitting a few sleeper picks is paramount if you’re getting away with a fantasy hockey title this season.

A sleeper can be categorized as someone who could, or is very likely to, hit past their weight in an average pulling position. From experiencing a classic recovery season, to living up to expectations, to the totally unexpected breakout (see Troy Terry), there’s no shortage of factors that can lead to a sudden burst of productivity in a player.

At the end of the day, it’s about finding value. With that in mind, here is a list of 10 sleeper goals:

The rankings below are taken from Sportsnet’s preseason Top 250 Fantasy rankings and are quantified based on past production, forecast, age and potential.

1. Jakub Vrana, LW/RW, Detroit Red Wings (SN Rank: 106) – ADP: 166.1

In a total of 37 games with Detroit, spread over parts of two seasons, the double-eligible winger has scored 21 goals and 30 points. Proportionally over 82 games, this results in a clip with 47 goals and 66 points. Even if Vrana scores half as fast, it’s a steal – especially considering where he’s gone in standard drafts. After all, the 26-year-old has laid the foundation for a professional year. At the start of the season, Vrana is expected to skate in the second row and also in the first powerplay session.

2. Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabers (SN Rank: 151) – ADP: 164.9

In 50 games with his hometown Sabers following offseason shoulder surgery and a trade from Vegas, Tuch had 12 goals and 38 points. In short, the 26-year-old was on his way to a career-high 62 points. Needless to say, the power forward confirmed the notion that he was ready for a rise in responsibilities after playing mostly in the bottom six with the Golden Knights. In no time at all, Tuch advanced to one of the top 6 matches and became the first player to be a power play unit.

3. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars (SN Rank: 155) – ADP: 98

With John Klingberg in front of the door, the time is near for Heiskanen to take the next step offensively. In 70 games last season, the 23-year-old scored five goals and had a career-high 36 points. With that in mind, realistically, at least 50 points should be a achievable number that the Finn can reach this season if he continues to develop. Of course, Heiskanen caught the entire hockey world’s attention in the 2020 bubble playoffs when he amassed 26 points in 27 games in Dallas’ run to the Stanley Cup Finals.

4. Tyler Toffoli, LW/RW, Calgary Flames (SN Rank: 161) – ADP: 165.1

After Toffoli was acquired by Montreal last February, he was used primarily in a third-line role by Darryl Sutter for the remainder of the season. Well, that will change. In case you missed it, the Flames have been busy this summer. And suddenly a garden seat has become free next to Elias Lindholm. Enter Toffoli, who not only has the front-row experience but also the credentials to secure promotion. Since the beginning of the decade, the 30-year-old has scored 61 goals and 114 points in 153 regular-season games. At this point, it’s very likely that the Marksman will start the season in line with the aforementioned Lindholm and newcomer Jonathan Huberdeau.

5. Ilya Samsonov, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (SN rank: 173) – ADP: 116.6

Given Matt Murray’s recent track record of inconsistent gaming and health issues, Samsonov undoubtedly has the door open to snagging Toronto’s number one job. However, the 25-year-old, who signed a year-long Proof-It contract in July, has endured a terrible campaign with Washington. In 44 appearances, he recorded a 3.02 goals-against average and a .896 save percentage. Samsonov will likely start the year as a backup but again he will definitely get a chance to prove his worth.

6. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Seattle Kraken (SN Rank: 202) – ADP: 167.3

To make room for Johnny Gaudreau’s monster contract, Columbus had no choice but to take a pay cut, paving the way for Seattle to take over Bjorkstrand. Put simply, both the advanced metrics and eye tests review the 27-year-old winger, who is enduring a season in which he posted career-high goals (28) and points (57). Bjorkstrand is expected to start the year on Seattle’s number one line. And that means a lot of contact with Calder contender Matty Beniers – which is a great thing.

7. Connor Brown, LW/RW, Washington Capitals (SN Rank: 215) – ADP: N/A

With Tom Wilson out due to off-season knee surgery early in the season, Brown will be given every opportunity to hold on to Washington’s top line alongside Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin. The 28-year-old winger, who joined Ottawa in July, had 10 goals and 39 points in 64 games last season. Most importantly, Brown is set to become an unrestricted free agent next July, so there’s also the whole money motivation thing.

8. Seth Jarvis, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes (SN Rank: 230) – ADP: 168.8

From the start, Jarvis was a revelation in his rookie campaign for the Canes. In 68 regular-season games, the 20-year-old has 17 goals and 40 points. In addition, he had just eight points (three goals, five assists) in 14 games for an encore performance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Most importantly, as the season progressed, Jarvis became a mainstay on Carolina’s top line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. Look for more of the same this season, they had some serious chemistry.

9. Phil Kessel, RW, Vegas Golden Knights (SN Rank: 243) – ADP: 179

After three seasons with Arizona, Kessel stayed in the desert this summer, opting for a one-year deal with Vegas. While it’s unfair to expect the 34-year-old to return to his pro-game glory days, there’s no question his fantasy stock can only be positively impacted by the move to Sin City. However, it will all depend on how he is deployed by the Golden Knights’ new bench boss, Bruce Cassidy. At the very least, Kessel could help give a boost to Vegas’ lazy powerplay, which finished 25th in the NHL last season under Pete DeBoer.

10. Adam Boqvist, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (SN rank: N/A) – ADP: N/A

This one is a heavy sleeper, but given the job shortage and its potential, it might be worth picking up a flyer about Boqvist. First off, the 22-year-old has seen a performance improvement from 13 over 16 to 22 points in each of his first three seasons in the NHL in 2021-2022. In fact, he was running at a 35-point pace a season ago. In terms of the planned deployment, alongside his role as head of the second powerplay unit, Boqvist will almost certainly get top 4 minutes at the same strength. Of course, that could also mean a juicy Zach Werenski presentation.