I’ve already written down a few tracks what I expect from the coming seasonbut given the fact that it’s this time of year – and I do a daily radio show for the Leafs – it only makes sense that I’d write another one and put my pre-season opinions on the Leafs on the record.
They are as follows:
You will be very, very good
My buddy JD Bunkis has been (wisely) saying for years that the Leafs had enough good players but the puzzle pieces just didn’t fit. Wasn’t that the case with the fourth line when Jason Spezza was a fixture? He was an excellent contributor, an excellent leaf. But with him there, what should your fourth line be?
Their current fourth line is David Kampf, one of the league’s top defensive center backs, Zach Aston-Reese, a physical forward who has brought Selke votes in the past, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel, a guy who just clinched the trophy in one very good bottom -six. Their role is clear – take out the opponent, hit, forecheck, play with energy and shift the game from their own end to the other.
The rest is already proven. They have three pretty good defensive pairs when they’re healthy and they put in such a bad goalkeeping performance last year and still scored 115 points, so don’t ask Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov if they’re Georges Vezina’s second choice.
This team is (somewhere close to) a 110 point team and there is room to be better.
Whether through injury or performance, the Leafs gain another NHL goaltender to get games in the playoffs
There are a number of scenarios that can unfold with Murray and Samsonov. But the outcome the Leafs want – Murray both good and healthy, Samsonov good and healthy – is probably not the most likely. Murray has played 47 games combined over the past two seasons. Whether he’s injured or struggling or Samsonov is injured or struggling, it seems a more likely outcome that the Leafs look to their team in February and say, “We need more security at the net, what do we have to do to get someone.” else in here?” They got the best people they could from those who were available. That doesn’t mean someone else won’t be available during the season.
If they ask Erik Källgren to play a dozen games this year, the plan has gone sideways.
Big core years
Last season, Auston Matthews scored 60 points, Mitch Marner about 100 points, and William Nylander and John Tavares about a point a game. The three younger guys there should match those totals or better, which fans should appreciate. It’s not often that you see real superstars in their prime every night. The years some franchises spend struggling to get these guys… Phew. Don’t forget how unfunny that can be.
With Muzzin’s health a constant question mark, D depth comes into focus
As both a player and a guy, Jake Muzzin is someone the Leafs are proud of. But he did have a preseason quote about “having a lot of miles on him” after not feeling great, and that’s his reality. He also makes $5.625 million against the cap and is a guy the team relies on for defensive stability. If they don’t have it available, the questions begin (including how best to use their salary cap dollars). You’ll be paying attention to her D depth, which is actually…better than it’s been in recent years. Timothy Liljegren isn’t far behind, Jordie Benn should be an option, Victor Mete is waiting in the AHL…there’s a good chance the Leafs will field a lot of defenders this season, but the D Corps should remain pretty solid no matter who’s in it .
Staying healthy becomes a topic of conversation
Last season, their top four forwards were generally healthy and played 305 out of a possible 328 games. After that, Rielly played 82, Brodie played 82, Kerfoot played 82, Bunting played 79, Kampf played 82, Engvall played 78…they were a pretty healthy bunch. That leads to continuity and 115-point seasons, but it’s never guaranteed.
I’m curious if the team deserves credit for that (they rely heavily on a sports science department that prioritizes health, nutrition and sleep) or if they just got lucky last season. To win the division they need health again, and if they don’t have it how much do we end up talking about it?
Nick Robertson will play a part in some way
I say “in a way” because I think it could be as a player but also as a trade piece. The reality of the Leafs is more important this year than planning for the future, as it has been for years, and while Robertson may have numerous 30-plus seasons down the road, you need players now. If they get into a pinch where they need to add a player right away – like at the close of trade – would he be an option to go the other way?
Or there’s the other possibility that his preseason showed signs of something the Leafs really need and now have in him: a cheap contributor. He looked great. If he shows he can score for his salary, wouldn’t the team love that?
kyle Dubas – who is in his final year of contract – will get a short extension around Christmas
Based on the optimism above, I think the Leafs will be at or around the top of their division by Christmas. If so, they will have to make big decisions related to the previous topic: What will they give up going forward in order to get better this season, to go “all in”? And can you have a GM capable of making such important decisions that you don’t trust enough to grant an extension? If you don’t trust him to make those calls, should he be in power? I think to avoid some of the embarrassment when the Leafs are good Dubas will be extended into the season.
And finally,
There will be playoff successes
That doesn’t mean “they’re going to win the Stanley Cup,” but…I can’t believe I’m writing this…the Leafs will win a playoff round and give the city a little run.
Listen, I have to talk about this team every day this year, I can’t go into it with sheer pessimism. I’m sure the comments section will respond appropriately.
Leafs/Habs, 7 p.m., Wednesday night on Sportsnet. Let the games begin.
#predictions #Toronto #Maple #Leafs
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