Eastern Conference Preview: Ranking of Teams by Tiers

The Eastern Conference is stacked. And deep.

This could be the best Eastern Conference we’ve seen in decades, meaning not only will good teams struggle to make the playoffs, good rosters will even end up missing the play-in. The East is at least 11 deep with teams dreaming of the playoffs this season.

Let’s break down the Eastern Conference by tier. To be clear, these tiers are based on the team’s ability to win the title and not just where they will end up in the regular season standings. For example, the Heat or the 76ers in the East could easily be seeded in the top two, they’ll be good regular-season teams but they have playoff questions to answer.

TITLE RECIPIENT

Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Celtics

Anything short of the Eastern Conference Finals will disappoint these teams. Milwaukee has continuity, a strong defense and the best player in the world in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks just need to stay healthy (they might have made it back to the Finals if Khris Middleton hadn’t sprained his knee), but adjusting the defense to take away a few more 3-pointers wouldn’t hurt. Still, this is the core of a team that won it all in 2021 and could do it again.

Boston has depth, continuity, athleticism and defense (especially if Robert Williams III recovers and returns to the lineup) — all of which propelled them to the Finals last season. The only question (which keeps me from getting them to win it all…but that’s for next Monday) is how they react to Ime Udoka missing and Joe Mazzulla stepping in as coach. The Celtics may not miss a beat, but Udoka helped them find their identity last season and guided them fantastically to the finals. This is no small thing to replace.

FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)

Philadelphia 76ers
intense heat

Not only can both teams finish in the top two in the regular season, but they also have rosters good enough to be serious title contenders — if they can answer questions (there are only bigger questions than the Bucks and Celtics). The 76ers’ big question is James Harden in the playoff spotlight — he’s historically weakened in big moments and played bad games when his team needs him most. Sixers GM Daryl Morey has upgraded the supporting cast this season, which is good enough, but now the pressure is on Harden to fulfill his potential in the playoffs. Also, Joel Embiid’s streak of unfortunate postseason injuries must end. Health is also one of the Heat’s concerns, but the bigger question with the Fours is where they need to fill PJ Tucker’s consistent postseason hand. Is Caleb Martin ready for this?

EDGE OF THE FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE LOTS OF QUESTIONS)

Brooklyn Networks

The Nets have so many big, pressing questions they deserve a category of their own: Will Ben Simmons accept his role and fit in with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving? Is Irving fully committed? (It’s a contract year, I expect he’ll be dialed in.) Is Nic Claxton center enough? Can this team get stops? However, Durant asked the big question about this team, and it sounds like even he doesn’t know the answer:

Let’s save the quote from KD on the #Nets Training camp mood: “The mood has been right now, but who knows what the mood will be like if we slip or if we don’t play well or if someone gets injured. That’s what makes a team, how we stick together in these times.” #NBA

— Brian Lewis (@NYPost_Lewis) October 11, 2022

Playoffs or bankruptcy

Toronto Raptors
Cleveland Cavaliers
Atlanta Hawks

These three teams are likely to be fighting for sixth place and avoiding the play-in, or at least seventh or eighth place so that the play-in to playoff path is easier.

For the Cavaliers and Hawks — teams that made bold moves during the offseason — a move forward into the playoffs seems imperative. Atlanta added Dejounte Murray, giving Trae Young an All-Star-level backcourt who can be both a disruptive defender and keep the offense buzzing when seated. The Cavaliers traded Donovan Mitchell for the fast-rising Evan Mobley and All-Stars Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs may have the best young core in the NBA, but how quickly can they get together?

From this group, I take Toronto to get the sixth seed. The Raptors have their All-NBA player in Pascal Siakam, a rising star in Scottie Barnes, and an extensive roster full of long, switchable, athletic players — guys that Nick Nurse uses in an aggressive system unlike any other team in the league is. The Raptors are tough to play, they’re my pick for getting the 5th or 6th seed, but they don’t feel like a threat to win it all.

PLAY-IN TEAMS

Chicago Bulls
New York Knicks
Washington Wizard

These teams have playoff dreams but are probably headed towards the play-in – and you might even miss that.

Bulls fans might think they should be a notch up, they played that way last season when they were healthy, but Chicago is starting this season without Lonzo Ball (which hurts their defense and transition) and with questions about DeMar DeRozan repeat a career season at age 33. The Knicks will be better with Jalen Brunson leading the point and RJ Barrett taking a step up, but the rest of the East got better too, and this roster still has holes. The Wizards could break out of this group and make the playoffs, but to do that they need a perfectly healthy Kriztaps Porzingis, bet on it at your own risk.

One thing to keep in mind with this group, if a team suffers a serious injury or gets off to a slow start, will they switch to tanking early and chasing Victor Wembanyama instead of winning?

LOTTERY BOUND

Detroit piston
Indiana Pacers
Charlotte Hornets
Orlando magic

These teams think more about Wembanyama than playoffs. The Magic have some impressive young talent, led by Paulo Banchero (he’s the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year), but they’re young and have some hard lessons to learn. The Hornets will likely miss Miles Bridges for the entire season and LaMelo Ball early on, and that’s too big a hole to climb out of. The Pacers still have real talent on the roster, talent that can win games, which is why everyone in the league expects a Myles Turner and/or Buddy Hield tour sooner rather than later.

If one team is going to break out of this group, it’s the Pistons, led by Cade Cunningham and impressive rookie Jaden Ivey, with some promising role players. They are the best of this group and although it is a young team that learns spontaneously, they might surprise us all.