NFL Week 8: The Falcons are the least pathetic team in the pathetic NFC South

Another week means another strong underdog has tons of money thrown his way. This is interesting because the dog seems to win when bettors throw a lot of money behind it. Just this season, most of the reviews I’ve written about revolved around the New York Giants’ 6-1. Big Blue have an incredible ability to control the pace of play, dominate possession time and still manage big plays – a big reason for their success despite an apparent lack of talent.

The G-Men seem to have worked their way out of the underdog hole. Instead, a new contender has joined the fray — the Carolina Panthers, who are quarterbacked by a former XFL MVP, PJ Walker.

Corresponding OddsChecker USA, 60 percent of money line bets on the upcoming Panthers-Falcons game went in favor of Carolina, who will be the away team in this contest. That could actually be an advantage. The Panthers have won their last two road matchups against Atlanta, and within that series, the road team has won at the end of each of the last four and five of the last six.

Additionally, it’s hard to overlook the Carolina Panthers after Walker and company just dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-3. However, the Falcons are up against the 49ers 2-1 at home this year, so how reliable is the betting trend really?

The Dirty Birds run the ball second highest valuation in the NFL (60.6 percent) – ahead only of the Chicago Bears (64 percent). The Carolina Panthers have one of the best running defenses in the NFL, at least in terms of allowed yards per carry (4.1 yards allowed per rush – seventh in the NFL). They are also top-10 in defensive first-down rush percentage (23.4 percent) and lead the NFL on expected points added by their rushing defense (22.17). Pro Soccer Reference.

After what I’ve just said, you’d probably think I’d lean heavily into Carolina’s good graces too, but I’m not. Why? Because San Francisco also has an elite defense, and the Atlanta Falcons dominated the Niners.

Using the run game to open up the pass attack is what made Atlanta so dominant in this game. The Falcons weren’t very effective at running the ball. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier averaged under four yards per carry. Sure, that’s pretty normal for any team playing the 49ers, but unless you’re averaging close to five yards per carry, most teams tend to run the ball less as the game progresses. Not Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball 31 times with either Huntley or Allgeier, with 14 of those carries coming in the first half before a normal team would start giving in to the game script. It also doesn’t include runs from QB Marcus Mariota or Avery Williams. That number would be much higher if that were the case.

In the passing game, Mariota went through the air 13-on-14. We all know he’s not the most accurate quarterback, but even he was able to dissect the 49ers’ defense. Was much of that down to head coach Arthur Smith’s great game design? Probably. However, at least in the first half, most of Atlanta’s big passing games didn’t come from game action or quick on-screen passes. They were just either good pre-snap reads, Atlanta receivers finding a hole in the cover, or Mariota showing up and playing with his legs. Sure, the touchdown to MyCole Pruitt was off-play action, but in terms of driving across the field, almost all of those airplays were on easy dropbacks. The same goes for the Falcon’s second touchdown drive, which is completed with a Mariota rushing TD.

While Carolina’s offense looked pretty strong last week, I’m not willing to call a team led by Walker, DJ Moore and D’Onta Foreman better than San Francisco. The Atlanta defense could handle a 49ers without Christian McCaffrey and shouldn’t have a harder time with a Panthers without Run CMC. I just don’t see a chance the Panthers will handle the Falcons as well as bettors seem to think. Considering the San Franman managed the Panthers just a few weeks ago, I’m leaning heavily in Atlanta’s favor. Sure, Carolina arguably has a better quarterback now, but that won’t be enough to grant a win. Give me Atlanta minus four.