COVID-19 risk is rising, DeMille says

THUNDER BAY — A confluence of factors, including new varieties and changing seasons, is expected to lead to a surge in COVID-19 infections in the coming weeks and months, Thunder Bay’s health officer says.

In an interview on Friday, Dr. Janet DeMille, she already sees some evidence of a “significant increase” in infections in the local sewage data.

While DeMille cautioned that the data is early — and that the data available is also limited — she said she hoped local residents would recognize the rising risk of COVID-19 and respond by taking more precautionary measures, such as meet the covering indoors.

“Certainly we’re not going back – we’ve plateaued and I have recent evidence that our numbers are now starting to rise and we’re watching that closely.”

COVID indicators across the province have risen, with the health ministry on Thursday reporting the highest weekly death toll since the spring, with 109 deaths related to the virus.

dr Ontario’s chief medical officer of health Kieran Moore said last week he plans to issue new guidance on masking — although the government says the advice will be for individuals, not governments, to reintroduce mask mandates

Infections were always expected to increase with the arrival of colder weather, but health officials are concerned this will be amplified by the emergence of several new Omicron subvariants that appear to be better able to boost immunity to vaccines and earlier to avoid infections.

The BA.5 subvariant continues to drive most current infections, but is already declining at the provincial level, and other subvariants are expected to become dominant in the coming months, DeMille said.

She worries about the strains that the local healthcare system could face during the winter.

Coupled with flu season – which she said is showing up early this year – COVID-19 is likely to cause “a lot of disruption” in healthcare and in schools and the workplace, she said.

“Hospitals have survived flu outbreaks in the past. But when you get the combined effects of COVID, flu, and all the other respiratory illnesses and presentations at that [emergency rooms]…it really combines to create significant pressure.”

It’s a good time for local residents to take greater precautions to reduce their risk of catching COVID-19 and spreading it to others, she said.

“It would help if more people masked to control the spread of COVID — or flu or other respiratory viruses,” she said.

While acknowledging that many might find a return to masking unappealing, she said, “It’s an important tool that we must use to navigate the coming months.”

Vaccines remain the most effective tool in protecting people from COVID-19, she said, particularly with bivalent booster doses targeting the Omicron variant now available.

She hopes those skeptical about getting another dose of the vaccines will look at the data showing they remain effective at protecting people from hospitalization or death from COVID-19 – and regular boosters are key especially for elderly or immunocompromised people.

“I understand people are tired, they’ve signed up for the vaccine and it’s frustrating that we keep recommending the next vaccine and it feels a bit much,” she said. “That’s the challenge COVID-19 has presented us with – it’s always changing, it’s always coming with new variants or sub-variants.”

The ages of those considered most at risk have also changed, DeMille noted.

The Department of Health is now identifying people aged 65 and over as having a higher risk of COVID-19, which is reduced compared to those aged 70 and over, she said.

Those in the group over 65, as well as anyone who is immunocompromised, are strongly encouraged to get their bivalent booster as early as three months after their last dose or COVID-19 infection, she said.

Locally, 60- to 69-year-olds have much lower vaccine uptake than 70- to 79-year-olds, DeMille found.

Just 41.9 percent of this younger group had reported for a fourth dose, compared with 65.6 percent in the group of 70-79 year olds on Oct. 11, the health unit’s latest available data.

Children under the age of four are also considered to be at high risk for COVID-19, which DeMille says many parents may not be aware of.

“We have relatively low uptake of the COVID vaccine for children under the age of [five],” she said. “The second-highest rate of hospitalizations is in very young infants and young children for COVID. The highest rate is in those over 70.”