5 Big Questions for the 2022-23 Maple Leafs

Only games give answers.

But the big questions that will swirl around and shape the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2022-23 season are easy to debate even as we wait another week for training camp to begin.

Here’s a look at the big storylines that will unfold over the winter and — maybe, just maybe — well into spring.

Will the double down gamble pay off at the goalie?

Press conference bard (and former Leafs coach) Paul Maurice once questioned whether the NHL got their middle letter right. Perhaps the highest hockey circuit should have been named NGL – National Goaltending League.

Because this last line of defense exerts such a disproportionate influence on who picks silver and who gets fired.

That said, in 2021-22, only four of hockey’s 16 playoff teams qualified for the tournament with a save percentage below the median (Minnesota, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Washington). Neither of them lived to see Round 2.

Today, with the Maple Leafs losing two No. 1 workhorses in two offseasons, all eyes are on their backup hopefuls, both of whom have much to prove. And that under a microscope that burns with criticism.

Of the 61 NHL goalies who played at least 20 games last season, injured Matt Murray ranked the Ottawa Senators 36th in save percentage (.906). New backup Ilya Samsonov tied for 25th with a .911 with the Washington Capitals. Their former clubs had no interest in keeping them.

Not-so-fun fact: Jack Campbell (now an Edmonton Oiler) had more NHL wins (31) than Murray and Samsonov combined (28) last season.

Thus, redemption of the new tandem becomes GM Kyle Dubas’ big bet.

We’re not saying the high-scoring Maple Leafs need elite goaltenders to thrive. Toronto scores in heaps and defends better than most would have you believe.

We say they need at least one healthy and reliable man in the pads – either one – to make one safer than their opponent on the other end.

The Maple Leafs are actually good… but are they really better? (And does it matter?)

While another bout of first-round sadness tarnishes the fact, 2021-22 was the greatest regular season in Maple Leafs history.

The final tally of Toronto’s most gargantuan 82-game campaign: 54 wins, 115 points, a plus-62 goal difference, the scariest power play in hockey, and 13 players with career-high point totals.

At the start of 21, Dubas rightly stated that this squad was the best version he had put together during his tenure.

Unfortunately, this assessment can still be true now.

While the defense corps remains essentially unchanged (see you, Ilya Lyubushkin), it is questionable whether there will be any significant losses in the net (Campbell) and in the storm (Ilya Mikheyev, Ondrej Kase, Jason Spezza) from the arrival of Murray, Samsonov, Calle Jarnkrok, Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Adam Gaudette.

We’re not sure the Leafs will score as many goals as they did last season (315), but with Florida, Tampa Bay and Boston expected to fall slightly behind, they may not have to.

Coach Sheldon Keefe has placed great emphasis on winning the Atlantic Division and securing the home ice next spring.

Unfortunately, beating Tampa in the winter doesn’t guarantee you’ll make it to the thaw.

Where the Maple Leafs fit and finish in a less one-sided split will be a matter of debate. But it will be controversial if the core fails to deliver in April.

How hot are these seats?

This historic 2021-22 feat began in a hole. Do you remember?

The Maple Leafs were beaten back-to-back by the Sharks, Penguins and Hurricanes last October and – fair or not – job insecurity was in the air.

With President Brendan Shanahan remaining loyal to Dubas and Dubas sticking to his head coach and core after a sixth consecutive post-season win for this group, is the job of management at stake?

“I think it’s a valid question. I feel like it’s at stake every year and I’m judged at the end of each season. I don’t necessarily feel like there’s more pressure; I just think it’s very important for me personally to help with the organization,” Dubas said this summer. “Every day I get up and try to do whatever I can to help our organization and of course the end goal is that we succeed when it counts – in the playoffs.

“As much as we want to fast-forward all the way there, if we skip all of these steps, we’re going to fall short. So, I completely understand the question, but I don’t treat it any differently. I put a lot of pressure on myself to do something for the people who hired me and the people I work with. And that will never change.”

The Leafs can’t win October.

If they start out smooth, it’ll be, “OK, great. Wait until the playoffs.”

If they stumble, panic could set in long before Game 7, and Daniel Craig won’t be the only one to challenge knives.

Which cape color should Matthew Knies choose?

Assistant GM Brendon Pridham’s top-heavy record could benefit from significant contributions from homegrown youngsters still in or emerging from their entry-level contracts.

Is that winter left winger Nick Robertson making a perma-jump to the big club and punishing a couple of NHL goalies with his evil shot? Not only can Timothy Liljegren and/or Rasmus Sandin continue on their promising path, but also fight for the top four minutes at the back end?

Or, Leaf Nation is gradually building all of its anticipation for the conclusion of the University of Minnesota Gophers’ season and pinning its high hopes on new hope Matthew Knies looking to give the roster a boost in the postseason.

Will they win a damn playoff round?

In truth, there is only one question that needs to be answered.

Yes, we’ll be distracting ourselves with fourth-row contests and John Tavares winger debates all winter. Certainly there is external discussion about how many bargains Michael Bunting and David Kämpf will achieve with their next contracts.

But the only thing that matters cannot be addressed for months.

Let’s recycle those words about the Maple Leafs by Jon Cooper.

“I see one hell of a hockey team,” the Lightning coach said before extending Toronto’s run of playoff futility to 18 years. “They were a damn good hockey team that had some bad breaks in the spring. And it seems that, for whatever reason, they haven’t climbed the mountain yet. But they have a team that can definitely do it.”

Yes you can.

But will they?

7 bonus questions: Will Auston Matthews score three goals as Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy champion? … Can Mitch Marner snag his denied 100-point campaign? … Is the possibility of a bold move – cough, Patrick Kane, cough – still in sight? …Will Keefe try to reunite Marner with Tavares? … Who will blink first during Rasmus Sandin’s contract break? … Are Justin Holl and Alexander Kerfoot skating out of their current Toronto contracts? …Did Zach Aston-Reese’s PTO lead to a roster spot?