NHL Scoring Continues Unabated – TSN.ca

The National Hockey League has been increasingly vocal about increasing offense over the past two decades. And to its credit, the league has frequently put its thumb on the proverbial scales – tweaks like downsizing goalie kits and changing the rules of the game were always meant to stimulate offensive play. But the expected goalscoring came slowly.

That was until about five years ago. Since that point, we’ve seen a steady increase in scores in all game states. There is an intriguing debate, which cannot be resolved today, about how to split the credit for the climb. How much do you weigh things like rule changes versus longer-term initiatives, like expanding international recruitment pipelines to enhanced player development programs?

In any case, scoring has been around for a while, and it’s created a more compelling and fun product. In years past, the high-scoring Octobers faltered as the season progressed, ending with a healthy dose of three-goal games in March. Now the scoring is more firmly anchored throughout the year.

I wanted to see what opening week of this NHL season looked like as I was fascinated by the increase in scoring chances over the past few years. Lo and behold, things are looking up again, with the league recording 6.4 goals per game at the start of the year:

We’re talking 3 percent of the season, so we’re still working with very small samples right now, but 12 teams — led by the New York Islanders (4.9), Boston Bruins (4.6) and Pittsburgh Penguins (4.5 ) – score at least three goals per game.

Also of note is that the underlying numbers are also up, and why I remain optimistic that this trend will continue. Yes, teams score more goals, but scoring more goals can simply be a by-product of higher-than-expected shot rates or cooler-than-expected save rates. These percentage shifts rarely sustain themselves and aggressively regress toward the mean over long periods of time.

But what if crime is inherently more dangerous? That’s the case, and that’s why changing the rating is still supported. Consider the four charts below showing offensive shot volume by game status (even strength and power play) and offensive shot volume adjusted for shot quality (expected goals). The following shows the same 15-year period:

This is an important relationship. Underpinning the league’s goal-scoring trend is an observable change on two fronts: teams are more effective than ever at deflecting shots at opposing goalkeepers, but those shots are also much better quality. It puts relentless pressure on the defense and will accordingly score at a sustainably higher level.

Just to show how far we’ve come, compare the opening frames of the 2022-23 regular season to those from 10 seasons ago. If you just compare the shift in rating, it’s up 20 percent. But look at what’s happening beneath the surface:

I wrote last season that offense is becoming the big differentiator. As the score increases, so does margin and volatility, and the lineups that can routinely threaten their opponents will be well positioned to win games; Likewise, teams that are struggling to score goals will find themselves fighting increasingly tough battles as the value of a single goal has diminished.

Being a great defensive team is still crucial. But it’s never been more important to nail down a lineup that can often score. This will again be one of the main storylines this year, as weak offensive teams will lose their footing in the standings faster than usual.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference