Dodgers vs Giants odds, tips and predictions today – Junis is keeping it tight

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look for a 3-0 win over the San Francisco Giants this afternoon at Oracle Park as a -165 favorite last night. Los Angeles have beaten San Fran 20-7 in that series and given the lack of goals from the home team combined with the setting and a matinee, I’m not expecting much action on the bases today.

Find out where my best value is in today’s free MLB betting tips and Dodgers vs. Giants predictions.

Dodgers vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best available odds for every betting market from regulated sports betting providers.

The Dodgers opened as -210 favorites and the line held overnight. This is the shortest time on this streak as they closed last night as -165 favourites, Tuesday at -150 and Monday at -140. The total stands at 8.0 after closing at 7.0 last night.

Use the Live Odds widget above to track all future line movement up to first pitch and be sure to check full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs Giants Predictions

The selection was made on 8/4/2022 at 9:30 am ET.
Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.

Information about the game Dodgers vs. Giants

• location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
• First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Bay Area, SNLA

Dodgers vs Giants Betting Preview

start pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.66 ERA): Kershaw will wrap up a dominant streak this afternoon. The Giants flagged him for four runs two starts ago, but the left-hander had some control issues in the game that led to an unusually poor outing. He’s only allowed 14 walks and six home runs in 81 innings this season. THE BAT has forecast he will play six innings today versus a lineup that was stranded 10 on base yesterday and will likely have a weaker lineup with the quick turnaround.

Jacob Junes (4-2, 2.78 ERA): Junis will look to slow down the best offense in the National League as he makes his fourth start since June 10 after being sidelined with a hamstring injury. He was effective with a 1.05 WHIP, but has not recorded more than 13 outs since returning from injury. He only saw 18 batters on his last outing and needed 74 pitches to do so. His 2.78 ERA is quite misleading as he is a 4.61 ERA pitcher with a 4.05 xERA this season. He’s stranding runners at an 84.6% rate, which is unsustainable, as is his .256 BABIP, but Oracle Park should help him today.

weather

Be sure to monitor game time conditions with our MLB weather information.

key breaches

Find our latest MLB injury reports here.

to know the betting trend

The Giants are 4-0 in June’s last four starts with four days out. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants

Dodgers vs. Giants tips and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total score in that game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

running line analysis

Bettors got a great price for the Dodgers last night after it closed at -165. Now, with Clayton Kershaw on the hill, that line has shifted to -210, which I think should have been closer to yesterday’s line.

To be honest, this afternoon’s duel between Kershaw and Jakob Junis is not very different from yesterday’s duel between Julio Urias and Alex Cobb. Kershaw saw the Giants at home two starts ago and closed as a -220 favorite, which makes me think today’s line is 15-20 points short.

San Francisco isn’t even a tough team today to convince me on the running line.

Kershaw has had slight trouble with that lineup this year, with two starts and two shortened starts. The southpaw has failed to record 15 outs in just three of 14 starts this year: once in Colorado and twice against the Giants.

He’s still an elite pitcher but is priced in heavily in this matchup, coming in with back-to-back hard starts — allowing for nine runs in his last two games. Spin on his fastball has dropped slightly in the last three starts, and he’s not a pitcher I’m putting the helm on today, especially when I rated him 15 points the other way.

The Giants may be 3-0 down in the series, but they’ve been decent at clinching hits despite only scoring seven runs. They’ve been 6-a-side 18 with runners in goal position since Monday, beating Los Angeles eight-to-six in yesterday’s 3-0 loss.

Another big advantage the home team will have today is that the Dodgers’ bullpen has been overused with all the wins. Setup man Evan Phillips has served on consecutive days and closer Craig Kimbrel may not be available thanks to a 21-pitch performance last night. Midfielder Yency Almonte has also served three times in four days.

The Giants’ bullpen is completely rested and can eat middle innings with their best arms. I’m not getting greedy here and I’ll take the Giants +1.5.

forecast: Giants +1.5 (+105 at bet365)

Over/Under Analysis

I loved the sub 7.0 yesterday and was very surprised to see a total of 8.0 instead of 7.5 today.

Kershaw wasn’t his best against the Giants, but the results weren’t bad – 1-1 over/under this season. The 8 total gives us plenty of room here in today’s best home run suppression park, while Los Angeles has some elite middle release players who can come in and throw effective innings when Kershaw falters.

Jakob Junis is a pitcher likely to fall back into a worse ERA, but Oracle should help keep those unsustainable BABIP and LOB percentages in check today. He’s likely to see some benchers in the lineup this afternoon as Dave Roberts could easily give some veterans a day off with a big run against the Padres starting Friday.

In the first three games of the series, both bullpens have a combined 1.92 ERA with 12 shots allowed over 23 1-3 innings and a 16/3 K/BB ratio. A late goal in this series was not common.

With afternoon lineups tending to be weaker, Oracle Park doing its thing and a couple of Bullpens throwing up donuts, I’m confident hitting this under for the second game in a row.

forecast: Under 8 (-110 at bet365)

best bid

THE BAT has Junis pitching 90 pitches today, which is a great prognosis as he has pitched 32, 62 and 74 pitches in consecutive starts since returning from injury.

The right-hander has solid CSW numbers at 31% on the season. His batting average of 21% is the third best percentage in all of baseball for a starter with at least 50 innings of work.

A look at Junis’ recent starts, as most recreational bettors do, tells the story of a pitcher who probably won’t surpass 3.5 strikeouts, but Junis has stretched out and today should be almost the full line in a hitter’s park .

He knocked out five starting LA batters over five innings before hitting the IL and posting a 30% CSW in that game. Potential additions to the lineup would be Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger which would be a huge boost for this over 3.5.

Seventy points is pretty hard for the vig, but that number should definitely be 4.5. THE BAT predicts nearly 5.00 punchouts for Junes, with Over 3.5 -170 implying roughly 4.3 strikeouts.

Jakob Junis Prop: Over 3.5 strikethroughs (-170)