Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions Today – The starters are shining bright

Against all odds, San Diego and Philadelphia will open the NLCS on Tuesday. While neither side was expected to be here, we’re still treated to a high-profile affair that will see both pitchers put on a show — as our MLB betting tips predict.

Three teams in the National League have won 100 or more games this season. Neither of them will meet for the NL pennant.

That’s because the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres did the unthinkable, starting in the wild card round and knocking out everyone who got in their way. Now they face off in the National League Championship Series.

And while they may not have been the top teams in the regular seasons, this series will be full of star power. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Rhys Hoskins to name a few.

But it will be pitching that will take center stage in Game 1 as Zack Wheeler shoots the rubber at Yu Darvish. I’ll dig through the numbers and bring you the best bet in our MLB betting tips and predictions for the Phillies vs. Padres.

Phillies vs Padres best odds

Selection and predictions between Phillies and Padres

It’s kind of funny considering it’s the postseason and the fact that they’ve already faced two division winners, but the Phillies made it into the NLCS with relative ease.

Philly started with a two-game win over the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium and then defeated defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves in four games, beating Atlanta 24-7.

The Padres, on the other hand, have taken a slightly longer path. To be fair, they had to knock out the New York Mets with 101 wins and the Los Angeles Dodgers with 111 wins.

Regardless of the path, we get an excellent matchup on the mound in Game 1.

Zack Wheeler put together another strong season for the Phillies, throwing to a 2.82 ERA, giving up a .221 batting average and batting over one batter an inning. Additionally, he continued to be a reliable innings-eater, averaging nearly six innings per start.

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish was out for the Padres in the second half of the season. The veteran right-hander threw to a 2.71 ERA, limited opponents to a .199 batting average and also hit more than one batter per inning.

Additionally, Wheeler and Darvish both did well in their first two postseason starts, and they each got one start against the other team in that matchup when those two met in Philly in May.

Both threw seven shutout innings. Wheeler gave up four hits and hit nine without walks, while Darvish conceded six hits and hit five without walks.

While both lineups have some explosive bats in them, I really expect this to be a classic Championship Series fight highlighted with excellent starting pitching. That’s why I’m betting under 3.5 for the first five innings.

my best bet: First five innings under 3.5 (-125 at bet365)

Phillies vs Padres NLCS odds

teams	Odds to win streaks
Philadelphia Phillies	+105
San Diego Padres	-120

Phillies vs. Padres Moneyline Analysis

I have a feeling this is going to be a very close series and so is sports betting as San Diego is just a -120 favorite to advance to their first World Series since 1998. The story is similar to Game 1 with the Padres on the board -125 home favorites. And it’s easy to see why, as there’s not much between these two teams.

Since we collapsed, the appetizers are about to have a wash. The Bullpens finished 10th (San Diego) and 11th (Philadelphia) in FIP for the second half of the season, and both teams’ strong assists have looked good so far this postseason. (I’m looking at you Josh Hader).

But when it comes to lineups, I’ll give the Phillies the advantage. And not just because they averaged 5.3 runs per game in the postseason. Philly had the stronger and more reliable lineup all season and was significantly better against righties.

The Phillies placed 11th in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fifth in home runs when facing right-handed hurlers, while the Padres placed 19th, 17th, and 23rd in those categories.

With everything else about to get a wash, I’d lean towards the Phillies and their hot lineup for the plus money.

Phillies vs. Padres Over/Under Analysis

It’s clear that I like this game to be underscored early on, so I’d also lean toward under when it comes to overall game totals. But there are a few things that have held me back there.

One is the strong nature of the Phillies’ offense. They’re on fire at the moment and have put up some good numbers against some good starters in the postseason so far. And secondly, although the Bullpens were better for both teams in the second half, they’ve proved at various points this season that they have their respective problems.

So I’m sticking with my top five overall.

Phillies vs. Padres trend to get to know

The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 matches between the Phillies and Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres

Information on the Phillies vs. Padres game

start pitchers

Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA): Wheeler finished the regular season strong, giving up just one run over his last three stats and carried that into the postseason, where he held his opponents in three runs with six hits over 12 1-3 playoff innings.

Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA): In a rotation full of big names, Darvish was clearly the best for the Padres. The right-hander recorded 20 good starts in the last 23 times he has picked up the ball in the regular season.

Phillies vs Padres latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports here.

Phillies vs. Padres weather

Be sure to monitor game time conditions with our MLB weather information.

pages on this topic