NFL week 7 tips
Chris Raybon: Last week I noticed that the Packers weren’t doing well with the Jets defense due to their ability to apply pressure, and this week it’s similar for Green Bay against the Odds/Washington football team”>Commanders. Washington ranks third in the print rate (29.3%), and the fact that her print rate place is seven places higher than the lightning rate (28.4%, 10th) signals that she is with her four -Man rush can come home.
Without Davante Adams, who quickly wins off the line, Rodgers struggles under pressure, with his 103.2 passer rating falling from a clean pocket to a 65.0 when under pressure. Rodgers began relying more heavily on Robert Tonyan last week, connecting with him on 10 of 12 passes for 90 yards, but that may not be the case this week as Washington is third in DVOA on passes to TEs.
You’d think Matt LaFleur would eventually pick more run games given the presence of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but that doesn’t seem like a quick fix either, given Washington’s defense ranks fifth in the DVOA against the run.
Washington’s offense won’t be any worse with Taylor Heinicke than it was with Carson Wentz (IR, thumbs) and should succeed with its three-man backfield of Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic against a Packers defense that’s bottom in the DVOA against the run.
The Commanders also have a distinct advantage over special teams, finishing fifth in the DVOA while the Packers are 30th, which could play a big part in what is expected to be a low score.
According to our Action Labs data, in week 7 non-divisional house dogs +7 or less in low total games went 141-102-7 (58%) against the spread (ATS).
Even though the Packers are up against the likes of Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson in half of their games, the Packers still have just one 3+ point win this season.
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Chris Raybon: The Giants are lucky to be 5-1, but they fit well with the Jags. The Giants play the third-highest man coverage rate, and Jacksonville ranks 30th in yards per completed pass vs. man (4.9) and 31st in yards per completion vs. man (7.5).
But in large part because they faced the Colts twice in six games, the Jaguars had the second-highest zone coverage in the league, inflating their offensive numbers. In last week’s competition, the Colts didn’t even play a snap from man coverage.
And in the two games against Indianapolis, Trevor Lawrence completed 45 of 52 passes (86.5%) for 400 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) with three TDs and no interceptions. In his other four games, he was 88-151 (58.3%) for 997 yards (6.6 YPA) with six TDs and four interceptions.
On offense, the Giants should be able to ride Saquon Barkley again against a Jags defense that has allowed 155.3 scrimmage yards and 2.5 TDs per game for opposing backfields over the past three weeks. After beginning his career as a turnover machine, Daniel Jones has quietly made ball safety a strength with just four turnovers in six games – half as many as Lawrence.
According to our Action Labs data, Jones is a 12-4 ATS as a street dog, including a perfect 10-0 ATS as a street dog with under 8 points.
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Chris Raybon: Pollard has rushed for at least 43 yards in four of six games this season. The two times he didn’t both came against top-flight running defenses ranked in the DVOA top-8 in Tampa Bay (eighth) and Washington (fifth). The Lions-led defense bears no resemblance to these units, ranking 31st in the DVOA.
One of the most efficient RBs in the league, Pollard has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry on 372 attempts. That efficiency helped Pollard rush for 41 or more yards in 13 of 19 games (68%) last season, despite playing behind Ezekiel Elliott.
I projected Pollard for 49 yards in this matchup.
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Chris Raybon: Jaire Alexander shaded for the first time last week, pinning Garrett Wilson on four goals while Wilson ended the day with just a catch for eight yards.
This week, Alexander is a good bet to shadow McLaurin, who is leading the Commanders with 387 yards this season. McLaurin would be a good bet to go under that number even if he weren’t in danger of being shadowed by Alexander, as he’s in four of six games this season and nine of Heinicke’s 15 starts last season at four or fewer receptions was detained.
Overall, McLaurin has topped four catches in just eight of 23 games (35%) going back to the start of last season. I’m forecasting him 3.8 catches and about a 67% chance of dropping below 4.5.
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Chris Raybon: Hubbard will likely lead the Panthers’ backfield in passing-down snaps, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good bet to beat his receiving yardage prop.
The Bucs defensive front cleared RBs in the passing game, giving the position a league-low 10.8 yards per game. With Lavonte David and Devin White flying around as linebackers, the Bucs only allow opposing RBs 2.4 yards per aim and 3.4 yards per reception, allowing Hubbard to catch a handful of balls and still hit the under. In six games, Todd Bowles’ defense has yet to allow an RB to surpass 14 yards, with only one RB surpassing 12 yards.
The under is 10-0 for RB, who are getting yardage props against the Bucs this year.
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Chris Raybon: Kirk started the season with three six-catch games but has been held to a total of seven catches in his last three games. He’s unlikely to break out against a high-volume Giants defense, giving the WRs the fewest receptions per game in the league (9.67).
Kirk’s season average is 4.2 receptions per game, which is what I predicted for him. Even if I conservatively increase it to 4.5, its true probability of falling below 4.5 should be -111, and its true probability of falling below 5.5 should be -244.
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