Week 2 player props and NFL best bets

With more information at our fingertips, week 2 always gives bettors a great chance to beat prop markets.

This week I’m aiming for a Commanders receiver to pick up where he left off and Davante Adams to continue magic with Derek Carr.

Latest NFL Prop Picks

• Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
• Curtis Samuel for 37.5 yards (-112)
• Davante Adams for 92.5 yards (-114)

Check out the full tips analysis below or click here for the full betting map.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

Mister Utility

Many bettors were upset to see a competent Carson Wentz against the Jaguars last week, but it was his receiver Curtis Samuel who perhaps surprised the most.

In his first start since Week 4 last year, Samuel played 71% of the snaps (55), drew on 27% of the target percentage and added five rushes for 17 yards. He had seven touches in the opening drive, which he finished with a 3-yard touchdown.

Samuel’s use may have surprised some, but those who knew what he was doing with head coach Ron Rivera at Carolina were unimpressed by the performance.

In 2019, he received 107 goals as Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore’s third fiddle, and Rivera found creative ways to get his hands on the ball.

Of all the routes Samuel ran in Week 1, Wentz aimed for him at an insane 32.4%. For comparison, Terry McLaurin saw a throw on just 9.4% of the routes he ran while playing 90% of the snaps.

I double-dive when Samuel plays indoors and against a weak secondary from Detroit who ranked 30th in the dropback EPA last season.

Curtis Samuel Prop: Over 3.5 receptions (-125 at BetMGM)

Curtis Samuel Prop: Over 37.5 yards (-112 at BetRivers)

target practice

The connection between Derek Carr and Davante Adams was impressive in Week 1 as Adams led all receivers with a stunning 48.6% goal percentage en route to a game with 10 catches and 144 yards.

Carr and Adams did so against a Chargers secondary holding Patrick Mahomes for 235 yards Thursday night. Now the new duo meets the Cardinals, who were roasted 360 yards in the opener by the Kansas City quarterback.

The Cardinals blitzed more than any other team in football in Week 1, but they generated no sacks and left their vulnerable secondary wide open. Arizona started the season with one of the weakest cover groups in football and currently has its No. 2 corner and starting security listed on injury reports and as questionable for competition.

It’s not every day that we get a total of 92.5 yards, but THE BLITZ projects 114 yards as Carr, Adams, and Hunter Renfrow all project as +EV. With a running game lacking in talent and a defense missing a corner and middle linebacker, the Raiders could come by early and often against this soft Arizona secondary, and Adams is the new man in town.

Davante Adams prop: Over 92.5 yards (-114 on FanDuel)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Where there is a Williams

Javonte Williams might not have seen enough work in the running game in Week 1 against the Seahawks, but his 11 goals and 10 catches were no fluke, according to Denver coaches.

After his great performance in the passing game, the coaching staff said that this could be the norm for the explosive back and that it will continue to be a very important part of Denver’s passing attack.

“The Week 1 loss provided a glimpse of what the Broncos believe in [Javonte] Williams can be… a versatile weapon that could be destined for a bigger role in the passing game.

Note that in week 2 DEN plays HOU, which allowed IND RBs 10 receptions in week 1. https://t.co/pHEKku0ERv pic.twitter.com/xJAEriOYz8

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) 09/16/2022

The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider also believes the Broncos will find even more ways to get the ball into Williams’ hands in an easy matchup against the Texans, who gave up 517 yards to the Colts last week.

Compared to the Seahawks, Williams played 31 of his 38 snaps in passing downs and was targeted on 43% of his routes while running a route on 63% of the team’s dropbacks.

For a man who caught 10 balls last week while his coaches were asking for more, 22.5 yards feels terribly short. This sum is already in motion.

Javonte Williams Prop: Over 22.5 receiving yards (-120)

Scared to run?

Lamar Jackson didn’t take too many chances on the ground in Week 1 against the Jets, finishing with just 13 yards on six rushes. Eight of those yards came on scrambles, while he had seven yards on four separate runs (he lost two yards on Victory Knees).

Being uncontracted next season could certainly play a role here, as could the game script, but this offense looked inadequate compared to one of the worst defenses in football, averaging just 5.2 yards per game. Kenyans Drake, Justice Hill and Mike Davis also didn’t help with their combined 46 rushing yards on 15 carries.

It’s a little worrying for Jackson, who is still being hounded over his contract issues and also looks visibly taller than a season ago as he’s reportedly gaining 15 pounds coming into the season.

Now he faces a fast Miami Dolphins defense that allowed the fourth-least opposing quarterback to rush for yards a season ago (12.7 per game) and will make it harder for him than the Jets last week.

His rushing yards closed at 60.5 last week and was an absolute winner for under bettors. This week he’s at 55.5, trending down at 54.5 with some books.

With the offense potentially struggling to move the sticks after gaining just 274 yards against the Jets and facing infinitely better defense this week, his path to 56 yards won’t be easy if Jackson decides to take flight . The lack of draft runs in the last week is a big factor here. If the Baltimore QB has another easy under, that’ll be a bigger topic of conversation next week.

Lamar Jackson Prop: Under 55.5 rushing yards (-108)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

Pierce gets a replay

It’s ironic that Dameon Pierce and the Texans take on the Broncos this week as Denver doesn’t give their better back more carry just like Houston did in Week 1. The big difference is that Pierce gets a confidence boost from his head coach.

Rex Burkhead passed Pierce 72% to 28% last week compared to the Colts, but Lovie Smith told reporters this week that “we need to get Pierce more touches. We have to do that.” The HC added that he wished he had gotten the running back more involved.

Feed Dameon Pierce the rock ???? pic.twitter.com/GDyQWP94xf

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 14, 2022

Sounds like a vote of confidence for the preseason standout, who had 7.8 yards per carry in warm-up games and was named a starter before the opener.

The books opened his rushing total at 42.5 against a Denver defense under new control with first-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and last week facing the league’s worst offensive line with the Seahawks.

If Lovie Pierce gives up more than 11 carries in a game that could be more competitive than the 10-point line indicates, the rookie has more than 50 yards ahead. His rushing total closed last week at 50.5 in a similar position against a big favorite. THE BLITZ projects 48.30 rushing yards and that’s without adding Smith’s handicap comments.

Dameon Pierce prop: Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

With your tools

Marcus Mariota looked great under center against a strong New Orleans defense last week. He totaled 72 yards on the ground but was also competent as a passer thanks to Arthur Smith’s use of the play-action pass. The Falcons had the highest rate of game action in Week 1, and the athletic Mariota looked comfortable and excelled at it in her career.

Some positive results from week 1

-The offensive line looked noticeably better
-Run game/play action will make this offensive much more dynamic
-There seems to be a pass rush
-Hawkins/Grant looked very handsome
-London looks real
-CP picks up where he left off
– Mariota looked decent

— Miles Garrett (@MilesGarrettTV) 09/11/2022

Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts are all elite weapons for the quarterback against a Rams defense that ended Week 1 with the second-worst dropback EPA and pass success rate.

Last week, the Bills didn’t have much on-the-spot success against the Rams, which could lead the Falcons to pass more or include Patterson in the short passing game rather than running straight into that defensive line.

A 10-point underdog on the street, Mariota also has the game script on his side and a modest total passing length of 213.5 yards I hit the over at. His 1.5+ passing TDs at +165 also project well at THE BLITZ.

Marcus Mariota Prop: Over 213.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Brissett breaks the bag

Jacoby Brissett didn’t blow people’s minds with his Week 1 performance against the Panthers, but he did enough to win. He certainly doesn’t have great speed, but did manage to climb eight yards three times and had a designed run for another pair. We don’t expect the Cleveland QB to run 40 yards, but with a modest 9.5 rushing total, Brissett could concede this over quickly.

First off, Brissett was one of the slowest quarterbacks to throw the ball, indicating his slow reads on his receivers. The longer it takes him to read his pass catchers, the more likely his body clock will go off and he’ll have to move, increasing the likelihood of a mess.

The Jets created some of the lowest pressure numbers last week, which should also benefit Brissett, whose under-mid skills should keep this game a little tight.

In his 38 career NFL starts, Brissett averaged 16 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry. His rushing market closed last week at 10.5 and THE BLITZ is counting on 19.88 rushing yards.

Jacoby Brissett Prop: Over 9.5 rush yards (+104 at Caesars)

Season so far: 4-3 SU, +0.34 units (risk of winning 1 unit per game)

NFL Week 2 Prop Betting Card

• Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
• Curtis Samuel for 37.5 yards (-112)
• Davante Adams for 92.5 yards (-114)

— —

• Javonte Williams for 22.5 yards (-120)
• Lamar Jackson Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

— —

• Dameon Pierce Over 42.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Marcus Mariota Over 213.5 passing yards (-115)
• Jacoby Brissett over 9.5 rush yards (+104)

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