When is the 2022 flu season and how intense will it be? Virus experts share key flu insights for this year

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Australia ends its worst flu season in years. In May, the Australian government’s Department of Health and Elderly Care reported that confirmed flu cases were twice as high as in May 2019, the country’s worst flu season on record. And with the virus drinking like a lizard — that’s Australian slang for work hard and fast — experts warn we should brace for a tough 2022 flu season in the US, too.

“We’re looking at Australia very closely,” says Ryan Maves, MD, a professor of infectious diseases at Wake Forest School of Medicine and chair of the American College of Chest Physicians’ COVID-19 Task Force. Thanks to similarities in societal behavior and population densities, flu patterns in the northern hemisphere tend to mirror those in Australia – so their earlier season may provide clues as to what’s to come. “Besides, it’s not always predictable,” explains Dr. Maves, adding, “But I think we should be prepared for a serious flu season.”

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A September 2022 report published in the peer-reviewed international journal, The lancet, suggested that 85% of influenza cases in Australia this year were caused by influenza A (H3N2), a strain of influenza associated with more serious epidemics. According to the figures, there have been 217,898 Australian government flu cases year-to-date, rising again in 2019 to levels at that time. Keep in mind that confirmed flu cases represent only a fraction of the true total, since most people don’t take a lab test when they’re sick.

In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly influenza coverage doesn’t really get going until early October, says Linda Yancey, an infectious disease specialist at Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, TX. “Right now we’re on the annual summer break – last week there were just 40 cases of flu reported across the country. This is consistent with previous years.”

Given this data, experts suggest that we should expect cases to return to at least pre-pandemic levels. But there are a few other factors at play that highlight the prospects for the 2022 flu season.

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First, flu activity has been historically low since the pandemic began. The CDC reported just 1,675 confirmed flu cases in the 2020-2021 season and 134,683 cases in 2021-2022. For comparison, the agency estimates that there were 38 million cases of the flu in 2019. This lack of exposure to the flu in recent years is helping to reduce our population’s collective immunity — also known as “herd immunity” — which may pave the way for more severe waves of the flu virus, according to a 2022 report published in has been published nature communication.

So our natural immunity to the flu has waned during the pandemic. But influenza vaccination rates are also declining. A UCLA study found that after decades of more or less stable adult flu shots in states with low Covid-19 vaccination rates are on the decline. And among children, flu shots are declining across the board. This is worrying because the flu can hit children harder than adults – and in 2019, 78% of children who died from the flu were unvaccinated.

Then there is the expert fear of a “twindemic”. Are we getting a really bad flu season – Dr. Maves points to the H1N2 (swine flu) pandemic of 2009-2010 as an example – or just a normal flu season, he says, there will be the added challenge of having highly transmissible strains of Covid circulating across it.

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In general, the flu season in the US lasts from October to May and peaks between December and February. But “the timing of this influenza season is a bit of a question mark,” says Dr. maves “So the question is: will influenza resume its normal seasonal patterns?”

The timing of the last two flu seasons has been unusual. For example, while the 2021-2022 season was mild, it lasted much longer than expected. “[There were] a significant number of cases occurred in April, May and early June,” said Edward Telzak, MD, Chair of the Medical Department at St. Barnabas Hospital Health System. And usually cases after mid-April are considered atypical.

In addition, reports from Australia suggest that the 2022 flu season could start earlier than usual. That’s why CDC health officials are asking everyone six months and older to get the flu shot by the end of October. This guide is especially important for children. Australia’s flu report points to children as a high-risk group, with children and adolescents having the country’s highest rate of infection and hospitalization in 2022.

Here’s what doctors want you to know about childhood flu

“This year’s flu shots are called ‘quadrivalent’ because they contain four different strains of the flu virus,” said Robert Amler, MD, dean of the School of Health Sciences and Practice at New York Medical College and former chief medical officer of the CDC’s Toxic and Disease Registries Agency.

For people under the age of 65, the CDC does not recommend one type of flu vaccine over another. “They are all equally effective,” explains Dr. maves Whatever is available at your local pharmacy or doctor’s office will likely do the trick.

But if you’re over 65, “three different flu vaccines are preferably recommended this year because they provide an extra level of protection in this age group,” says Dr. Amler. These include the Fluzone High-Dose quadrivalent vaccine, the recombinant flu vaccine Flublok Quadrivalent, or the adjuvanted flu vaccine Fluad Quadrivalent.

The flu vaccine isn’t 100% effective at preventing the flu, but it greatly reduces your risk of catching a bad case or developing serious complications, says Dr. maves This is especially important for people with chronic medical conditions. Even if you’re not at high risk, getting the flu shot is still important. “Many of us don’t have chronic lung disease, don’t smoke, and are generally healthy,” explains Dr. maves “But unless you live in an extraordinary bubble, you have a parent, a grandparent, a child, a friend, someone you work with who fits into one of those [high-risk] Categories.” By getting vaccinated against influenza, you enhance their protection along with your own.

As a similar example, he points to the rubella vaccine. This infection causes mild or no symptoms in most people, so getting vaccinated is not necessarily about protecting one’s health. But the disease can cause devastating complications in newborns. “So we all get vaccinated against rubella so pregnant women don’t get it and prevent catastrophic birth defects.”

For this reason, parents also need to be up to date on all their vaccinations

In terms of timing, experts say the best time to get the flu shot is as early as September or October this year. They say that’s particularly important as we still don’t know when the season will be in full swing. “We are heading into what may be the worst flu season in five years,” said Dr. Yancey. “We want everyone to be protected as soon as possible.”

With Covid-19 circulating, it is recommended that you also increase your protection against it. “The new Covid boosters will be available this fall,” says Dr. Yancey. “It’s perfectly safe to get the booster at the same time as the flu shot.”

Along with your flu shot, here are expert-recommended ways to stay healthy this flu season

If you get sick this season, says Dr. Amler that it’s a good idea to get a Covid-19 test as the symptoms can be quite similar. But if you have the flu, try to stay home for about five days after your symptoms start. “As long as people feel better, don’t have a fever, and five days have passed since their illness began, they are considered non-contagious,” explains Dr. Yancey.

You should still get vaccinated against the flu if you are not vaccinated after recovery. There’s a chance you could catch another strain of the virus, and you won’t get the same “cross-protection” from the flu that you get from the vaccine.

And whether you get sick or not, here’s how to deal with uncomfortable flu season situations this year

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