Here are 5 smart bets for today’s games

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more information on sports betting go to DraftKings.

We’re primarily focusing on money line bets available this Tuesday at DraftKings Sportsbook, but there are a few props that stand out as well.

Yanks against pirates
The bet: Nestor Cortes over 5.5 strikeouts
Line: -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Left-handed pitchers may be Pittsburgh’s matchup of choice right now (.171 ISO), but they still hit them a lot. Since the beginning of September they have had an absurd strike rate of 34.8% against leftists. That number only gets worse when you shift your focus to the road (38.5%). While Cortes isn’t surpassing that number like earlier in 2022, he has shown he can still beat six-plus in the right matchup. And while no two lefties are alike, getting four punchouts on just 82 pitches for José Quintana — who is far less of a strikeout pitcher — is a promising sign for Cortes on Tuesday.

Boys at marlins
The bet: Cub’s money line
Line: +130 (Bet $100 to win $130)

The Marlins are a decent 19-16 as home favorites, but that in no way means they’re a team Chicago can’t handle on Tuesday. In fact, the Marlins’ win on Monday shifts things a little in favor of the Cubs. After a win, Miami is 24-36 this season.

Well, the Cubs aren’t a suspension from a loss themselves, but this lineup managed to handle Pablo López well the last time they saw him. Though the Cubs lost Adrian Sampson’s foray into that series in early August, the right-hander got off to a good start against Miami. Given that Sampson has largely maintained that level of play since he last saw the Marlins and López has been very up and down, the Cubs have a good chance of ending their ongoing three-game slack.

ranger at angel
The bet: Adolis García 2+ total bases and rangers over 0.5 runs
Line: +145 (Bet $100 to win $145)

García has only averaged .192 against lefties this month. While it does hold its own against lefties a bit, 16.7% isn’t an overwhelming number. His low average was more the result of bad luck, with his 0.158 BABIP within the split serving as proof.

Patrick Sandoval hasn’t given many flies to right-handers in his last five starts, but they are hitting a lot of line drives (25%). Garcia is also often in the air against lefties, and that helped lead to an absurd .308 ISO against her this month. That power is all we need to hit this game – García’s direct total base prop is set at 0.5 with a low payout, which is why we’re attacking the Rangers for a run via DraftKings Sportsbook’s Same Game Parlay feature to achieve.

Mets at Brewers
The bet: Met’s money line
Line: -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

The Mets haven’t been particularly tough on righties this month. However, they only joined Corbin Burnes for five runs. While the Milwaukee right-hander wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2021, achieving that level of production against him is no small feat. So Aaron Ashby is likely to have a difficult return from the injury list.

Regardless of his performance, Ashby’s appearance is expected to be brief. If that turns into a bullpen day, New York will too. Since early September, Brewers have combined relievers for 3.99 ERA and 4.04 FIP.

Finally, the Mets are turning to Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Outside of a rough two-game stretch, he dealt after the all-star break. The Brewers have been posting good power numbers against right-handers since early September, but Carrasco has found ways to deal with challenging lineups during this strong run.

cardinals at Padres
The bet: Cardinal’s money line
Line: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Although the cards are slight underdogs on the money line, the Padres are actually the running line dogs at DraftKings Sportsbook. That hasn’t been common for San Diego this year, as they only played 10 games at Petco Park as underdogs in 2022. In this scenario they are only 4-6, but that is too small a sample size to consider.

What isn’t is St. Louis’ game as a street favorite. The Cardinals taking a loss — a scenario in which they thrive — are 24-14 straight when favored down the runline away from St. Louis.

It’s well documented that Adam Wainwright prefers to pitch at home. Outside the Busch Stadium, however, the right-hander was still fit for action. More importantly, this month’s St. Louis offense was successful against right-handers on the street. As of early September, the Cardinals have had an ISO of 0.220 and a 13.8% strikeout rate against right-handers on the street.

As much as the Padres aren’t hitting much against righties this month in San Diego, they only have an ISO of 0.133 within the split. Mike Clevinger is throwing his best pitching at home, but he’s not overwhelming either. In fact, he struggled quite a bit in September, giving up 15 runs in 13 1/3 innings.

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