MLB Playoff Odds, Picks, Projections Friday, October 14 for Guardians vs. Yankees, Braves vs. Phillies, Padres vs. Dodgers

We’ve reached Game 3 of the NLDS with both series tied on points as we make our way to another venue. Game 3 is usually the most important in deciding who advances to the NLCS, so buckle up.

Oh, and don’t forget we also have Game 2 between the Guardians and the Yankees after that competition was rained out on Thursday.

Be sure to visit our MLB odds page for up-to-the-minute odds changes on multiple sportsbooks and our predictions page to help you find the best value across the board.

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Guards against Yankees; 1:07 p.m. ET

Shane Bieber vs. Nestor Cortes

Shane Bieber had a great first start to the postseason closing down the Rays. Bieber held Tampa Bay back on three hits with just one run as he hit eight over 7 2/3 innings. That being said, Bieber has had some questionable metrics this season.

Bieber ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in MLB for both allowable hard hit rate and allowable average exit speed. He uses a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, curveball and changeup, but his fastball wasn’t very effective. Opposing hitters have a .315 xBA and a .381 xwOBA against his heater this season, and that’s the pitch the Yankees hit best this year with a +48.6 run rating.

Bieber has been very effective this season with his curveball and slider, both producing over 35% breath rates and opposing hitters having less than .200 xBA against. However, the Yankees are the top five in baseball against sliders and curveballs with a combined run rating of +35.1.

Nestor Cortes was the Yankees’ top starting pitcher this season. He has a 2.70 xERA, which ranks in the top five in MLB for pitchers who have pitched 150 innings. The reason Cortes was so good isn’t because of speed — his fastball only averages 91.8 mph — but because he’s accurate and keeps the ball off the bat’s barrel:

Image via Baseball Savant

Cortes has a three-pitch combination of fastball, cutter, and slider, with all three pitches being extremely effective. The left gives up an xwOBA below 0.300 and has achieved a breath rate of over 20%.

Cortes will have a fantastic matchup against the Guardians because Cleveland has a .285 wOBA (27th in MLB) and 84 wRC+ (27th in MLB) against lefties and also has a -28.3 run stat, .223 xBA and .279 xwOBA versus left-handed fastballs, cutters, and sliders.

I called the Yankees at -199 for the first five innings, so I love the -139 value available at BetRivers.

Choose: The Yankees’ first five innings -136

Braves vs. Phillies; 4:07 p.m. ET

Spencer Strider vs. Aaron Nola

This is an awesome pitching matchup for a crucial game 3.

Spencer Strider is pitching for the first time in 21 days and rumor has it he’ll only pitch two or three innings.

Either way, Strider has been one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers this season with a 2.39 xERA, a 13.81 K/9 rate, and opposing hitters only have a .242 xwOBA against him.

He does all of this by basically just throwing a fastball and a slider, but both are damn good. His fastball averages 98.4 mph and opposing hitters only have a .208 xBA against this season. Then his slider produces a whopping 52.2% breath rate and allows opposing hitters a .164 xwOBA.

He faced the Phillies four times this season and drove a total of 21 1/3rds innings, allowing for just seven hits, three runs and a whopping 34 strikeouts.

He’ll be up against Aaron Nola, who’s no slouch himself, in fact Nola has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season. Nola has an xERA of 2.74, a rate of 10.32 K/9 and a very low rate of 1.35 BB/9. He also has one of the lowest legal hard hit rates in the league at 31.6%, which is why his legal xwOBA is only 0.259.

Nola primarily uses a four-pitch arsenal of curveball, fastball, changeup, and sinker. His changeup, which he only throws 17% of the time, is the only pitch that allows an xBA above .200, and all four pitches allow an xwOBA below .300.

Now that I’m not sure how long Strider will play, I think there’s a certain way to play this game. If Strider didn’t have limitations, I would have only predicted 5.98 runs for this game. So, in case he doesn’t have any restrictions, I’m betting Under 7 Runs at -120 (BetMGM).

It looks like Jake Odorizzi is coming after Strider, who is almost two full runs worse as his on-season xERA sits at 4.11. If this game is still 0-0 when Odorizzi enters the game I will step in and play the live over to try and place the pre-game bet on under 7 runs.

You also have to consider that these teams will potentially play three games in three days, so they might want to rest some of their better bullpen arms when they get the chance, and Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park.

Choose: Under 7 runs (-120), try to play live when Odorizzi comes to Strider.

Dodgers versus Padres; 4:07 p.m. ET

Tony Gonsolin vs Blake Snell

Tony Gonsolin has been a pretty strong performer this season, but a 3.12 xERA is nothing to sneeze at. Gonsolin does a great job of keeping the ball low in the zone and under the opposing batsmen’s barrel. He had a groundball rate of 43.8%, which is the highest of his career. He’s got an incredibly nasty split finger that opposing sluggers haven’t been able to figure out this season. Gonsolin throws his splinter 27.5% of the time, and opposing hitters have only .187 xBA, .205 xBA and seven extra base hits against this year.

Gonsolin faced the Padres twice this season, hitting just one seven-goal run. He also struck out 14 over 12 2/3 innings.

The Padres don’t hit right-handers well at all. Even after the close of trading — when San Diego acquired Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury — the Padres still only have a .222 xBA and .291 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Blake Snell was set on fire by the Mets in his first postseason start when he gave up four hits, two runs and six youngsters in 3 1/3 innings. That being said, Snell was a big positive regression candidate in the first half and got plenty of it in the second half of the season.

After the All-Star break, Snell put up the best numbers of any Padres starter: 12.12 K/9 rate, 2.18 BB/9 rate, 0.69 HR/9 rate and a 2.73 xFIP . It was quite surprising to see him running with six guys and fighting the Mets.

Snell mainly relies on a three-field combination of fastball, slider and curveball. While his fastball was average, his curveball and slider were elite, producing over 40% touch rate and keeping opposing hitters under .185 xBA. In fact, he’s thrown his curveball or slider nearly 900 times this season and conceded just 39 total hits.

The Dodgers don’t hit lefties as well as righties. Specifically against left-handed fastballs, sliders, and curveballs, the Dodgers only have a .226 xBA and a .315 xwOBA.

Snell also faced only the Dodgers on September 27, keeping them scoreless with just one goal for five innings.

I only predicted 6.63 runs for this game so I like the under 7.5 runs value at -120 available at BetMGM.

Choose: Under 7.5 runs (-120)