Friday College Football Odds & Tips: How Our Experts Bet UCF vs. Louisville & New Mexico vs. Boise State (Sept. 9)

There is something special about Friday Night Lights. That’s especially true when there are two solid college football games coming up.

Friday’s college football roster includes two games: Louisville travels to Orlando to face UCF, while Boise State travels south to face New Mexico in a close-fight at Mountain West. Our experts – BJ Cunningham and Kody Malstrom – have broken down both games below and shared their best bets for each.

Check out their top picks below – and come back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.

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Friday college football best bets

The team logos in the table below represent all of the matchups our college football staff are targeting in today’s playlist. Click on the team logos for any of the following matchups to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	time	Choose
	7:30 p.m. ET	Louisville +5.5
	9 p.m. ET	New Mexico +17
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbooks offering preferred odds at the time of writing. Always buy at the best price on our NCAAF odds page, which automatically displays the best lines for each game.

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Louisville vs UCF

By BJ Cunningham

Louisville appears to be recovering from an opening weekend loss as it heads to Orlando to take on UCF.

The Cardinals were blown out 31-7 by ACC foe Syracuse in Week 1, which was unexpected considering they finished as -5.5 favorites on the road. Louisville narrowly beat UCF 42-35 at home last season, so we’ll see if they can pull off a comfortable win over the Knights.

UCF beat South Carolina State 56-10 in Week 1, so we can’t take much from this game. This is now the second year under Gus Malzhan after beating Florida 9-4 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl.

After losing to Louisville last season, the Knights will undoubtedly seek revenge in this game.

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Cardinal’s offense

If you look at the Syracuse game advanced box score, it pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

Image via COLLEGEFOOTBALLDATA.COM

Louisville crossed the Syracuse 40-yard line five times and walked away with just seven points. The Cardinals were still gaining 6.2 yards per game, but also turned over the ball three times.

So essentially everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for Louisville.

Malik Cunningham is arguably the best-running quarterback in college football, but his passing skills are underestimated. Yes, he didn’t have a great opening game. But in 2021, he posted an 82.7 PFF passing grade, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, and an adjusted completion percentage of 70.7%.

On the ground, his PFF running grade reached 90.7 (fourth best in FBS). He led all FBS quarterbacks with 20 rushing touchdowns because 755 of his 1,142 rushing yards came from designed runs, which was also the most in college football.

The good news for Cunningham is that he has four starters back on offense, including first-team All-ACC guard Caleb Chandler.

Louisville also snagged the No. 3 running back from the 2021 draft via the transfer portal in Tiyon Evans. He went for 89 yards, 6.8 yards per carry and a touchdown against Syracuse in the opener, making this quick attack extremely dangerous.

defense of the cardinals

The Cardinals’ defense was pretty bad last season. Louisville ranked 74th in allowable success rate, 100th in allowable finishing drives, and 84th in allowable EPA/Play.

Many of those issues emerged in the front seven, especially against the run, as Louisville finished outside the top 80 in the Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Play Allowed, Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and Rushing Explosivity Allowed categories.

It returns second-team all-ACC edge rusher Yasir Abdullah, who lost 10 sacks and 6.5 tackles last season. It also brings back two more starters, plus a transfer from Arizona State which gives it some depth. So this unit should be improved from those horrible numbers a year ago.

The runner-up was the strength of Louisville’s defense last season, and she’s returning Kei’Trel Clark, who was a 2020 first-team All-ACC selection but missed a boatload of time last year due to injury.

Scott Satterfield also went out and first-team All-ACC cornerback Quincy Riley of Middle Tennessee, along with a host of other transfers. This unit would continue to be the strength on defense, even if it conceded 9.3 yards per attempt in the opening game.

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Attack of the Knights

The Knights have a new starting quarterback coming over from Ole Miss in John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee was a four-star recruit who dropped out of high school and started a few games in 2019, but averaged just 6.10 yards per attempt and had a PFF passing grade of 60.1.

So he’s a massive downgrade from what UCF had at the quarterback position last season.

UCF is bringing back their running back tandem of Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser, who combined for 1,587 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021.

It also has 132 starts returning on offense, so this rushing attack will be just as good as it was in 2021, when it was 25th in EPA/Rush.

knight defense

Defensively, UCF has eight starters coming back but loses three starters on the defensive line, including first-team All-AAC defensive end Big Kat Bryant.

The Golden Knights ranked 74th in defensive line yards, 70th in rushing success rate allowed, and 118th in rushing explosiveness allowed. That doesn’t bode well against a double threat quarterback like Cunningham, who had 99 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in that game last year.

The secondary will be one of the best in the group of five this year. The entire unit remains intact, complementing Austin Peay’s transfer of Koby Perry, who was one of FCS’ top defensive backs last season.

In 2021, UCF ranked 15th in allowable pass rate, sixth in allowable explosive pass rate, and 29th in EPA/Pass Allowed. So Louisville’s focus will probably have to be Cunningham and the rushing attack.

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Louisville vs UCF bet selection

Even though UCF has matchup advantages on offense in the running game and in the secondary, this line is too high for the Knights. Your troubles in the front seven will be rigorously tested against one of college football’s most talented rushing attacks.

I projected UCF at -0.9, and our Action Network PRO projections have UCF as a -3 favorite. I like the Cardinals’ value at +5.5 or better.

Choose: Louisville +5.5 or better

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Boise State vs. New Mexico

By Kody Malstrom

You’d think that after doing this for about six years, I would learn to embrace the surprises of week 1. However, another calendar year has begun and another week 1 has left me scratching my head over some results.

One of them was my Maine +7 ticket against the New Mexico Lobos. Not only did it not cover, the Bears were absolutely bowled over at 41-0. That was almost as bad as my Oregon +17.5 vs. Georgia, but we’ll save that tirade for another time.

On the other hand, Boise State had a much tougher start to the season, traveling to the West Coast to take on an underrated Oregon State roster. After some early errors, the Broncos played a much better game, but it was too little, too late.

Will New Mexico roll on and shock the average viewer all over again? Or will Boise State take root and shake off the cobwebs by throwing New Mexico back to earth?

let’s find out

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Listen, everyone has bad days. Just the other day I wanted to pour milk into my precious bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch only to find out I was out of milk.

It was benched for Boise State’s Hank Bachmeier early in the second quarter after a rough start (two interceptions) against Oregon State.

Luckily for Boise, it caught up with backup quarterback Taylen Green, who threw for 155 yards and a pick. Though he didn’t catch the eye, his success saw Boise win the second half 17-10.

As of this writing, Bachmeier is still listed as a starting quarterback on the depth chart. In a personal redemption point against New Mexico, he will attempt to tear apart the Lobos’ defenses.

While the offense needs to figure out their issues, the defense is much more solid.

Oregon State is a vastly superior team to New Mexico, which means Boise State will have a good chance of getting back on track and repeating last year’s success — ranking above on nearly every key metric, including success rate the average.

One weakness worth noting is the Broncos’ inability to limit the explosiveness of the passing game. They’re taking a break, however, as New Mexico leans heavily toward the run, which Boise State is more than able to curtail.

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Alabama, Georgia and… New Mexico?

Jokes aside, New Mexico impressed in its season opener. New Mexico held the Bears for 118 yards and 2.5 yards per game while the Lobos finished on 437 yards and an average of six yards per game.

The offensive line was a major concern before the start of the season but looked impressive while protecting Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick.

Known as a run-heavy unit in years past, Lobos’ identity can change with a decent arm in the backfield. While still throwing two picks, Kendrick threw for a respectable 170 yards and two touchdowns on 14 completions (17 attempts).

Even so, the Lobos still have an above-average charge rate and will look to do the same against a Broncos defense that struggled to gain traction last week.

The offensive line must prove far superior than predicted against a strong Broncos defense that will attempt to create chaos in the backfield.

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Boise State vs. New Mexico betting selection

While expectations are dampened after just one game, it’s hard to ignore Boise’s struggles at center last week. Oregon State is a far superior opponent than New Mexico, but offense looked stagnant at Bachmeier.

I’ll take the Lobos at +17 or better as Bachmeier tries to gain a foothold.

Not only do I expect Boise to struggle, but for New Mexico to continue their newfound offensive momentum to pick up some much-needed points and time control.

New Mexico grinds it down with a higher-than-average rush rate and bleeds the clock with long drives. If Boise State’s defense continues to struggle, a spread of over two touchdowns gives more value with a shorter clock and fewer potential points on the board.

I’d also like to note: I’ll grab Boise live should New Mexico drop the number below seven and the Broncos bench Bachmeier again for Green.

Choose: New Mexico +17