2022-23 Fantasy Basketball: The only mid-round center you should try to walk out of every draft with

The term “breakout” is defined differently in the fantasy community, but I use breakout to describe players who beat their average draft position (ADP) relative to their position on the court and see a boon in minutes and opportunities should.

Identifying breakout centers this season hasn’t been easy. I expect players like Onyeka Okongwu or Walker Kessler to develop throughout the season, but their path to making an immediate impact is hampered by playing behind veterans (Clint Capela and Kelly Olynyk).

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The good news is that both players are achievable, inviting ADPs at 119 for Okongwu and Kessler at 148. There’s a non-zero chance that Capela and Olynyk will trade at some point this season, but even if they don’t, Okongwu and Kessler offer standalone value for their ability to block high-rate shots in limited minutes.

There’s breakout potential with them, but in the meantime I’m guessing Alperen Sengun bursting onto the stage in his second NBA season.

Try to draft Alperen Sengun for the 2022-23 NBA season

Everyone who follows the Houston Rockets has been in love with the (then) 19-year-old Turkish big man ever since Summer League 2021. His game in the 2021 Summer League showed he belongs in the league. Unfortunately, the path to playtime in his rookie season was initially unclear due to the Rockets’ frontcourt depth. His playing time was up sporadically Daniel Theis was dealt to the Celtics weeks before the All-Star break.

Finally!

Rockets and Fantasy executives would see Sengun fit into the Rockets rotation in a backup role Christian Holz. At 20 minutes off the bench a night, Sengun finished his rookie campaign averaging 9.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists with 1.7 shares (steals plus blocks). He shot 47 percent from the field but didn’t offer much for fantasy managers in the three-point department (.4) and had a high turnover rate at 2.0 per game.

The story goes on

However, when given the opportunity to start, his stats jumped the board.

But even more impressive are his numbers when he’s on the ground for at least 30 minutes. It only happened on six occasions, but Sengun left me wanting more than a “numbers guess” guy.

So what does Sengun have in store this year that warrants a breakout? The departure of Christian Wood. Wood was averaging 30.4 minutes a night under Stephen Silas, so it’s safe to assume that Sengun, now projected as the Rockets’ starting center, will replace Wood’s minutes on this offense.

And with minutes comes opportunity.

Sengun was one of the top players in EuroBasket 2022 and received an honorable mention for the All-FIBA EuroBasket team. I recommend watching some of his Tournament highlights – It’s full of highlight dunks, fancy dimes, dribbling drives into hard shots and an impressive display of footwork on offense and defense.

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His ADP may seem rich at 69.9 (sixth round), but he will be a top-60 fantasy player with the top-50 advantage this season. He’ll have a peak few weeks in turnovers, but his scoring stats should more than make up for his ball control mistakes. According to Cleaning the Glass, Sengun finished 88th percentile in usage rate, 93rd percentile in passing, 74th percentile in blocks and 84th percentile in steals in the middle position while coming off the bench 20 minutes a night.

I’ve already expressed my infatuation with his per-36 numbers, and he’ll be exciting plot for fantasy managers this season. Buckle up – Sengun flies to the moon *insert rocket emoji*.