Louisville vs. UCF College Football Odds, Tips, Predictions: Will Cardinals Strike Back?

Louisville vs UCF Odds

Louisville appears to be recovering from an opening weekend loss as it heads to Orlando to take on UCF.

The Cardinals were blown out 31-7 by ACC foe Syracuse in Week 1, which was unexpected considering they finished as -5.5 favorites on the road. Louisville narrowly beat UCF 42-35 at home last season, so we’ll see if they can pull off a comfortable win over the Knights.

UCF beat South Carolina State 56-10 in Week 1, so we can’t take much from this game. This is now the second year under Gus Malzhan after beating Florida 9-4 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl.

After losing to Louisville last season, the Knights will undoubtedly seek revenge in this game.

Cardinal’s offense

If you look at the Syracuse game advanced box score, it pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

Image via COLLEGEFOOTBALLDATA.COM

Louisville crossed the Syracuse 40-yard line five times and walked away with just seven points. The Cardinals were still gaining 6.2 yards per game, but also turned over the ball three times.

So essentially everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for Louisville.

Malik Cunningham is arguably the best-running quarterback in college football, but his passing skills are underestimated. Yes, he didn’t have a great opening game. But in 2021, he posted an 82.7 PFF passing grade, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, and an adjusted completion percentage of 70.7%.

On the ground, his PFF running grade reached 90.7 (fourth best in FBS). He led all FBS quarterbacks with 20 rushing touchdowns because 755 of his 1,142 rushing yards came from designed runs, which was also the most in college football.

The good news for Cunningham is that he has four starters back on offense, including first-team All-ACC guard Caleb Chandler.

Louisville also snagged the No. 3 running back from the 2021 draft via the transfer portal in Tiyon Evans. He went for 89 yards, 6.8 yards per carry and a touchdown against Syracuse in the opener, making this quick attack extremely dangerous.

defense of the cardinals

The Cardinals’ defense was pretty bad last season. Louisville ranked 74th in allowable success rate, 100th in allowable finishing drives, and 84th in allowable EPA/Play.

Many of those issues emerged in the front seven, especially against the run, as Louisville finished outside the top 80 in the Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Play Allowed, Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and Rushing Explosivity Allowed categories.

It returns second-team all-ACC edge rusher Yasir Abdullah, who lost 10 sacks and 6.5 tackles last season. It also brings back two more starters, plus a transfer from Arizona State which gives it some depth. So this unit should be improved from those horrible numbers a year ago.

The runner-up was the strength of Louisville’s defense last season, and she’s returning Kei’Trel Clark, who was a 2020 first-team All-ACC selection but missed a boatload of time last year due to injury.

Scott Satterfield also went out and first-team All-ACC cornerback Quincy Riley of Middle Tennessee, along with a host of other transfers. This unit would continue to be the strength on defense, even if it conceded 9.3 yards per attempt in the opening game.

Attack of the Knights

The Knights have a new starting quarterback coming over from Ole Miss in John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee was a four-star recruit who dropped out of high school and started a few games in 2019, but averaged just 6.10 yards per attempt and had a PFF passing grade of 60.1.

So he’s a massive downgrade from what UCF had at the quarterback position last season.

UCF is bringing back their running back tandem of Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser, who combined for 1,587 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021.

It also has 132 starts returning on offense, so this rushing attack will be just as good as it was in 2021, when it was 25th in EPA/Rush.

knight defense

Defensively, UCF has eight starters coming back but loses three starters on the defensive line, including first-team All-AAC defensive end Big Kat Bryant.

The Golden Knights ranked 74th in defensive line yards, 70th in rushing success rate allowed, and 118th in rushing explosiveness allowed. That doesn’t bode well against a double threat quarterback like Cunningham, who had 99 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in that game last year.

The secondary will be one of the best in the group of five this year. The entire unit remains intact, complementing Austin Peay’s transfer of Koby Perry, who was one of FCS’ top defensive backs last season.

In 2021, UCF ranked 15th in allowable pass rate, sixth in allowable explosive pass rate, and 29th in EPA/Pass Allowed. So Louisville’s focus will probably have to be Cunningham and the rushing attack.

Louisville vs UCF bet selection

Even though UCF has matchup advantages on offense in the running game and in the secondary, this line is too high for the Knights. Your troubles in the front seven will be rigorously tested against one of college football’s most talented rushing attacks.

I projected UCF at -0.9, and our Action Network PRO projections have UCF as a -3 favorite. I like the Cardinals’ value at +5.5 or better.

Choose: Louisville +5.5 or better