UFC 279 fight: Diaz vs. Ferguson!

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) welterweight finishers Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz will meet TONIGHT (Sat, Sept. 10, 2022) at UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

JUSTICE!

Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev was a stupid, reprehensible booking that should never have been made, and it’s karmic that the match blew up in UFC’s face. Replacing it is the far better option, the fight that many, many fans have pointed out and wondered, “Why doesn’t UFC just book Tony Vs. Diaz?” Thanks to Chimaev’s gross incompetence on the scale, fans are treated to a much better one Main Event spoiled. I’m not saying he’s the good guy in all of this, but for once everything went smoothly.

Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for every man:

Tony Ferguson

recording: 25-6
key wins: Kevin Lee (UFC 216), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC Fight Night 98), Anthony Pettis (UFC 229), Edson Barboza (TUF 22 Finale), Josh Thomson (UFC Fight Night 71), Donald Cerrone (UFC 238)
lost keys: Justin Gaethje (UFC 249), Charles Oliveira (UFC 256), Beneil Dariush (UFC 262), Michael Chandler (UFC 274)
key to victory: At its peak, Ferguson was the king of mixed martial arts (MMA) mayhem. Ferguson can set a fearsome pace and sap his opponent’s will to fight with constant quick kicks and elbows. He lost a step, but that doesn’t mean Ferguson is unarmed.

Against Diaz it will be absolute rubbish. Ferguson didn’t plan for 25 minutes, but now he’s in a five-round main event and that certainly changes things. If ‘El Cucuy’ ditches all precautions, we could see him tired – not a sight Ferguson fans are used to.

Ferguson’s kicking game should really make the difference here. It’s what can buy him to breathe and keep him on top in the damage game. Both men are pretty good at hitting their opponent with a straight shot, retreating to avoid counterattacks, and then returning fire. Both men are good at applying pressure and scrambling on the mat.

Kicks are the difference. Ferguson can hammer Diaz’s leading leg in and out like few, and his snap can really take the wind out of Diaz’s sails.

Nate Diaz

recording: 20-13
key wins: Conor McGregor (UFC 196), Michael Johnson (UFC on FOX 17), Anthony Pettis (UFC 241), Donald Cerrone (UFC 141), Jim Miller (UFC on FOX 3)
lost keys: Leon Edwards (UFC 263), Conor McGregor (UFC 202), Jorge Masvidal (UFC 244), Raphael dos Anjos (UFC on FOX 13), Ben Henderson (UFC on FOX 5)
key to victory: Diaz is a legend. His combination of pressure, combinations and fleeting Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has withered many opponents, although it has been a few years since Diaz has truly broken an opponent. I totally understand why Diaz was unmotivated to train for Chimaev, but now that he’s up against a decent opponent I can only hope that was all talk.

In any case, Diaz needs to put pressure on Ferguson. Both men are simply better front foot fighters and in each of Ferguson’s recent appearances he has really struggled when put on his back foot. Ferguson likes to be the tyrant, and since the paradigm shifted, he’s struggled to put the ship back in order.

Between the two, Diaz’s legendary durability has also held up better into his late 30s. When the two trade shot for shot, it seems to favor Stockton’s best. Additionally, the man moving forward would help eliminate the effectiveness of Ferguson’s kicks, as “El Cucuy” has never been one to dance and kick from the outside. He charges into his low kicks, and that’s not possible if he’s forced backwards.

When the two come together, I like Diaz’s chances of working the body and also taking over in the clinch. A takedown attempt wouldn’t be a bad idea at all!

bottom line

This is likely to be Nate Diaz’s final walk to the UFC’s Octagon.

It certainly doesn’t feel like Diaz particularly cares walking away at a loss. Is that really that important? Diaz hasn’t won a fight since 2019, but he’s still the main event! Will another loss to a respected opponent really hurt his star that much? Fight fans would still be happy to spend money to see Diaz box Jake Paul or headline events under his own promotion’s banner.

However, winning Diaz would be pretty incredible.

For Ferguson, this is a much better match for him to try to recover. Knocking out Diaz doesn’t mean much on the cover picture at welterweight — or at least it shouldn’t — but winning here could be just the confidence boost Ferguson needs. When fighters fight, confidence can often be a key issue, so maybe a single win could really help put “El Cucuy” back on track.

At UFC 279, Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz meet in the new main event. Which legend will achieve victory?

Remember it MMAmania.com provides LIVE round-by-round coverage of all UFC 279 fight card law herestarting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online scheduled to begin at 6pm ET, then remaining undercard balance ESPN+ at 8pm ET, ahead of the main PPV map start time at 10pm ET ESPN+ PPV.

For the latest and greatest UFC 279 news and notes, be sure to head straight to our comprehensive event archive here.