TORONTO — If you’ve been paying close attention, the signs of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. turning the corner after an extended chill have been there for the past week or so.
Check out this variety of swings starting with a third inning double Friday night at the Texas Rangers in which he rounded a 90.7 mph sinker by Dane Dunning and lined it 411 feet at 107.7 mph off the midfield wall.
Here’s a base hit in the fourth inning on Saturday at 111.4 mph from a 92.9 mph sinker down and away from John King.
This is a first-inning double also snapped at 111.4 mph against a 92.4 mph cutter by Martin Perez on Sunday.
Finally some redemption for the Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger in Wednesday’s 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays when he turned on Drew Rasmussen’s 95.5 mph four-speed and put him 363 feet at 98.3 mph for the No. 100 home run started his career.
Finally some redemption for the Toronto Blue Jays’ slugger in Wednesday’s 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays when he turned on Drew Rasmussen’s 95.5 mph four-handed and put him 363 feet at 98.3 mph for his first homer since August 30 and second started in the last 26 games.
Notice a pattern?
Each strike dealt damage on a pitch in the lower third of the strike zone, the area where opponents most often attempt to attack and where contact regularly results in the much-discussed groundballs.
If Guerrero starts crushing there, well, good luck pitchers.
“He can hit every ball really hard,” said interim manager John Schneider. “Before he’s a good power hitter, he’s a really good hitter. It’s all about understanding what a team is doing to you and making the right adjustments. He needs to see how they operate. It was the same after Homer. But it will come with Vlad. He’s so talented wherever it gets, whether it’s line propulsion, on the ground or in the air.
The homer was his first longball since Aug. 30 and second in his last 26 games, a span in which he’s hit .261/.303/.391. It’s no coincidence that he was pitched down a lot in the zone which made it difficult to lift the ball which led to some pressing which led to discussions about his swing decisions and all those groundballs.
Schneider noted before the game that when players are trying to move things around the plate, “those choices get a little bit broader, if you will,” and that’s why he wanted Guerrero “to take a walk and then hit a hanging slider.” and knock him out or punch him in the gap. That kind of shows he’s back.”
Of course, making opponents pay when they knock him down is another way to force them into the zone where he can end up getting those hanging sliders and doing more walks.
“It all depends on the plan that the pitchers have and the plan that I have,” Guerrero said through interpreter Hector Lebron. “Sometimes you hit a homer and think they’re going to change the plan, and then they keep giving you the same pitch.”
It’s clear that teams believe taking him down is the right way to go, and with his 52 percent groundball rate, up almost seven percent from last season, opponents have contained him much better than they were a year ago .
Notably, Guerrero is still among the top 30 most productive players in the majors and the reason it feels like he’s having a bad season is because of the heights he reached a year ago.
Remember, if this is his floor, it’s pretty darn elite floor.
At the same time, his 2021 season MVP finalist showed just how high the cap is, and it’s only natural to think he’ll live there on a regular basis. But opponents adapt, approaches change, and the toll of attrition varies, which is why virtually every player’s performance varies from year to year.
Nothing is static in baseball.
“Its natural path works well with four sailors in the zone, and when it comes to hitting sinkers or down and in, you should think more of an inside-out swing type,” said Blue Jays hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. That’s what he’s working on. It’s something he first worked on last year and it’s allowed him to lift a lot of balls. He’s still been working on it this year but for some reason he wasn’t as comfortable with it. We really attacked it today and hopefully that’s a sign that something good is still to come.”
Guerrero’s 28th homer of the season gave the Blue Jays (81-62) a 1-0 lead in the first inning and propelled them to a third win in four games against the Rays (79-63) to sit at the top of the wildcard rating to remain . The Seattle Mariners (80-62), 6-1 winners over San Diego, are a half game behind while Tampa Bay is now 1.5 games behind the pace.
The all-star first baseman also brought home the second heat of the game with a fielder’s pick in the second home — high on a slider belt but far off the plate — and Bichette immediately followed with an RBI single that took it to make it 3-0. Santiago Espinal in fourth and Raimel Tapia in sixth added RBI singles that increased the lead to 5-0.
With those two swings, Guerrero found a way to deliver some production on a night where the Rays got no closer to the heart of the record than the edges of the strike zone.
“Ideally, you don’t want to vibrate at their pitches.[Guerrero]knows if there’s a guy throwing him back and forth, the job is to see it and keep pushing him out,” Martinez said. “I always say that to understand the beginning of the swing you have to understand the beginning of the pitch. If it’s a four-sailer, you’ll want to go a little beyond that. If it’s more of a sinker, then you need to stay closed and stay indoors. If he does that consistently, he’s very dangerous.”
Offense was plentiful for Ross Stripling, who continued his remarkable season with another 6.1 innings of great baseball all the while keeping the Rays under his thumb. He allowed three hits, one of which was a homer by Harold Ramirez who opened the seventh, and walked before facing nemesis Manuel Margot who doubled a third in the second.
Stripling has now made 16 starts since taking Hyun Jin Ryu’s place in the rotation and has a 2.47 ERA in 87.1 innings, allowing for just 12 walks and 65 hits with 73 strikeouts. He’s gone at least six innings in eight of those games, including each of his last six starts, and the Blue Jays wouldn’t be charging into the postseason now without his showing up.
“I’m proud of the way I’ve competed and taken an opportunity and capitalized on it,” Stripling said. “I’ve done this before in my career but this one feels a little bit more special — it’s the AL East, we’re in a playoff run, the team really needed me when we lost Hyun Jin. I’m just glad the coaching staff and front office gave me the runway to take off and then proud of myself for using it.”
Guerrero is trying to do the same in his own way, given his limited ability to attack in his happy zones from stingy opposing pitchers. He acknowledged that he was anxious to hit homer #100, got a bit aggressive at times, and had a “finally got it” feeling going through his head as he hooked it up. “It feels great,” he added, and it only gets better if this is an instant springboard for many more to come.
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