Ramblings: Draft List Now Available, Quality Starts & Really Bad Starts (July 31)

If you’ve had a look at Frozen Tools, you’ve probably noticed some goalkeeping stats that you don’t see regularly or that you might see in different forms on other websites. These stats are Quality Starts (QS), Really Bad Starts (RBS), and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA). I’ll hopefully cover GSAA another day, but for today I’ll go over notable goaltenders with best starts, worst starts, and really bad starts.

At Frozen Tools, a quality start (QA) is defined as follows:

• Games with memory percentage above the league average
• Play with less than 20 shots and a save percentage above 0.885

Frozen Tools then defines a Really Bad Start (RBS) as a game with a memory percentage below 0.850.

Instead of absolute quality starts, which are usually made by the goalie with the highest volume, I’ll list the percentage of quality starts (min. 20 GP) to see if there are any surprises.

Anton Forsberg played in more games than any other Senators goaltender (46 GP) last season and finished with the team’s best odds (2.82 GAA, 0.917 SV%). If you exclude his first six games, which included only one good start and two really bad starts, Forsberg was recording 70 QS% as of December 1 with a GAA of 2.64 and 0.921%. I certainly didn’t know that at the time, nor did I make it my priority at the time, but Forsberg was worthy of a spot in the squad for much of the season. I wouldn’t call him an outstanding goalkeeper, but as a second or third goalkeeper he doesn’t hurt your team. While I’d still consider Cam Talbot a starter in Ottawa, Forsberg is a worthwhile goaltender option.

Matt Murray also played for the Ottawa Senators last season, so maybe they were a source of better goalies than you thought? Murray only played in 20 games, so it’s a small sample size. That being said, Murray had 12 good starts compared to just three really bad starts. A lack of wins (only five in 20 games) took a toll on Murray’s fantasy value, but he should be able to pick up many more wins with the Leafs. The fact that his above-average goals were kept at -.48 shows he was about a league-average goaltender when not injured.

Next is the lowest percentage of quality launches.

Pavel Francouz’s season totals (2.55 GAA, 0.916 SV%) weren’t too bad. Still, he’s only made seven quality starts in 21 games. It’s not great of course, but his totals were decent because he just got off to a really bad start. That was a game where he conceded three goals on 19 shots, which is hardly a huge disaster compared to other really bad starts. Between the good starts and the really bad start were a lot of average starts. When you start out with Francouz you should expect average ratios along with a high win probability (15W in 21GP). That might be enough to force a timeshare in Colorado’s goalie situation (more on the other goalie in a bit).

Next, let’s look at the highest percentage of really bad starts.

Alexandar Georgiev moves to a much more goalie-friendly environment in Colorado than in New York. However, they should call up his former tandem colleague Igor Shesterkin far, far ahead of him. Compare their 2021-22 numbers while playing for the same team:

That’s a difference of nearly a full goal per allowed game, and they’re in wildly different tiers when it comes to savings percentage. I expect that gap will be closed somewhat this season, mainly because of the team Georgiev is playing for. That being said, I wouldn’t pick Georgiev anywhere near as high as Darcy Kuemper last season (in the top 50 in many leagues).

You may remember Marc-Andre Fleury’s rocky start in Chicago last season, conceding at least four goals in each of his first four games (2 RBS). After being traded to the wild, he set a 9-2-0 record. However, three of those performances were really bad starts compared to five good starts (one of the really bad starts turned out to be a win). Fleury’s value obviously increases with the move to Minnesota, but be careful not to overestimate him.

Finally, here is the lowest percentage of really bad starts.

Sometimes a goalkeeper will do everything to save a team from defeat and it’s still not enough. Scott Wedgewood was unlucky to spend much of the season with the Devils and Coyotes, where, as expected, he suffered more losses than wins (10-14-3). Still, he got off to just ONE really bad start in 37 games, even though it was a sucker (seven goals allowed on 27 shots as Coyote). Wedgewood is expected to back Jake Oettinger at Dallas this season, but perhaps he deserves a bit more credit in terms of inclusion in the stars’ goalkeeping equation. Wedgewood’s 43.2 QS% is more in line with a backup goalie, so your expectations for a Wedgewood start should be average results that won’t kill your week.

There’s Pavel Francouz again. Antti Raanta is also in, with just a really bad start in 28 games. Obviously there is an ongoing concern that he will leave a game with an injury. Yet when Frederik Andersen was injured himself, I didn’t lose sleep starting his handcuff Raanta. In fact, this goalie tandem helped me win a championship. Raanta could also be considered a solid streaming start if it’s available in your league.

–

follow me Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.