Is the ability to shop for groceries a predictor of longevity?

Longevity is perhaps the most important trend we have ever witnessed. It is driven by – and in turn influenced by – everything from health to housing, money to technology, lifestyle to social policies. There is so much to consider – and it’s just getting started! Now you can keep up to date with the latest developments in this weekly column.

What is a predictor of longevity?

Not surprisingly, there are many possible answers, and researchers are constantly identifying (or theorizing) new ones. I report on this frequently, and I make no apologies that there doesn’t seem to be a single overarching narrative, but rather an ongoing process of new evidence and new ideas.

Now researchers at Duke Health have created a new analysis, reported here, that identifies no fewer than 17 “predictive variables” with a causal relationship to longevity. Some of them involve microbiological factors and some are obvious and already known (not some) but some pop out as unexpected and very interesting.

First, let me summarize what the researchers did and how they did it.

They tried to predict whether a person over 70 was likely to live another two, five, or ten years.

They analyzed a cache of 1,500 blood samples that were part of a longitudinal study of elderly people that began in the 1980s. Blood samples were taken in 1992 when all participants were at least 71 years old. After all these years, the sample bank was supposed to be destroyed, but the researchers were able to get their hands on it before that happened.

The date of sample collection is important because 1992 was a time “preceding the widespread use of drugs like statins that could have confounded results.” Also, the participants in this original study were followed for several years and had completed questionnaires about their health history and habits. So the researchers had a lot to do, and it was essentially a matter of applying up-to-date (and very sophisticated) analysis tools.

One of the 17 factors was an abundance of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, “and not just any HDL lipids, but large amounts of very small HDL particles.” The researchers found that surprising. The article quotes lead author Dr. Virginia Byers Kraus, professor in the departments of medicine, pathology and orthopedic surgery at Duke University School of Medicine. “We hypothesize that these very small HDL particles are the size that endotoxin, a powerful inflammation-causing molecule derived from gut microbes, is best able to capture and remove from circulation [VBKMP1]. The small particle may also be best able to get into the nooks and crannies of cells to remove the bad cholesterol, so more of it could provide that protective benefit.”

Another important factor – no surprise here – was not smoking. It was a common factor in predicting all three domains of longevity past age 70 – two years, five years and 10 years.

But the physical function was also enormous. And that’s the part that surprised me (and provoked the headline for this post).

The ability to shop for groceries or do household chores was a greater predictor than cancer or heart disease (neither of which were among the 17 factors).

Note that it’s physical function and not necessarily of superhuman physical fitness. Remember that 10 second on one foot test I blogged about a few weeks ago? It all makes intuitive sense – obviously, if you’re able to handle everyday routine tasks on your own, you’ll be in better shape to live longer. But now comes the clinical confirmation of it.

Findings like these should encourage more people to work on issues like mobility, balance, and body function, and not be intimidated by complex training programs that require unrealistic levels of commitment or aim for unrealistic levels of performance. Walking, some resistance training (not necessarily iron pumping), and some relatively gentle stretching and balance exercises can get you off to a great start — and for years to come.

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