A wild card spot a virtual ban for Blue Jays, Heimfeld a good possibility

With two weeks left of the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays lead the American League wildcard standings and have a slim chance of catching the New York Yankees in the East Division race.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers and storylines as the Blue Jays continue their road trip Thursday night with the opener of a major four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

NUMBERS GAME

The Blue Jays are on a virtual ban on qualifying for the playoffs thanks to a strong September that put some distance between them and teams chasing Toronto, Tampa Bay and Seattle for the three AL wildcard spots.

The Toronto-Tampa Bay series could have a big impact in the fight for the best wildcard position that comes with home advantage in the best-of-three first round.

The top two division winners receive a bye, while the third-place division winner hosts the third wildcard team (No. 3 seeded vs. No. 6 seeded). The top wildcard team will host the second wildcard entry (#4 vs. #5).

At the start of Thursday’s games, Toronto was two games ahead of Tampa Bay and two and a half games ahead of Seattle. The Baltimore Orioles were four games behind the Mariners.

The West Division-leading Houston Astros were the only AL team to secure a playoff berth.

The east-leading Yankees were 6 1/2 games ahead of Toronto and the center-leading Cleveland Guardians were six games ahead of the Chicago White Sox.

OCTOBER ODDS

The Blue Jays have a 98.6 percent chance of earning a wildcard spot and a 6.7 percent chance of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs odds Thursday afternoon.

Toronto’s odds of winning in the East Division are listed as just 1.2 percent on the website.

With the Blue Jays’ current road trip ending Sunday, the team returns to Rogers Center for a three-game series against the Yankees, followed by a three-game weekend against the Boston Red Sox.

Toronto and Baltimore will wrap up the campaign with a three-game set at Oriole Park in Camden Yards. This series ends on October 5th with a late afternoon start.

BORDER CHANGES

A cabinet order enforcing mandatory COVID-19 vaccination requirements at the border is expected to expire on September 30, which could give opposing teams more options in potential playoff games in Toronto.

Border restrictions on travelers who are unvaccinated have forced several clubs to place players on the road game ban list at Rogers Center this season.

Tampa Bay’s Brooks Raley missed a five-game streak in Toronto earlier this month. Fellow Rays reliever Ryan Thompson was also on the blacklist for the team’s trip north earlier in the season.

The Mariners suspended aid Drew Steckenrider for their only visit to Toronto that year. Starter Robbie Ray, who won the AL Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays last year, didn’t make it either.

ROAD WARRIOR

Home field advantage in a playoff series is usually a team’s preference, but the Blue Jays should be a confident bunch as they open the postseason on the road.

Toronto have won 15 of their last 19 away games on Thursday and have posted a 41-33 record away from home. The Blue Jays’ .554 road win rate was second in the AL behind the Houston Astros.

Toronto’s offense has shone from home. The Blue Jays lead the AL in road runs per game (5.15), road average (.267), road on-base percentage (.331), road batter percentage (.427), and road OPS (.758).

BO WHITE

Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette started September with a tear and it didn’t stop with a week to go.

He took a scintillating .424 batting average for the month in Thursday’s series opener against Tampa Bay.

Bichette has completed 23 runs in September and has a monthly OPS of a whopping 1,267. He leads all big league hitters in hits, extra base hits, total bases and RBIs this month.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published on September 22, 2022.