Sports

How Blue Jays’ odds in 2022 have been impacted by AL rivals’ deadline deals

How Blue Jays' odds in 2022 have been impacted by AL rivals' deadline deals
Written by adrina

TORONTO — The Juan Soto hype as it should be. Any time a 23-year-old Hall of Famer is traded in formation, that deal deserves all the attention it gets.

But from the Toronto Blue Jays’ perspective, the more significant moves ahead of Tuesday’s close occurred within the American League. In a day that kept most (but not all) AL contenders busy, the Blue Jays made four trades, at least two of which could be considered surprises.

Her day unfolded as follows:

• Acquired substitutes Anthony Bass and Zach Pop with a player later named by the Marlins for potential Jordan Groshans.

• Acquired pitcher Mitch White and infielder Alex De Jesus from the Dodgers for pitching prospects Nick Frasso and Moises Brito.

• Acquired utility player Whit Merrifield for prospects Samad Taylor and Max Castillo.

• Traded Jeremy Beasley to the pirates for cash.

“We are very excited about this team and the acquisitions,” said GM Ross Atkins afterwards. “The current value and future value of each of these (trades) is really exciting.”

Of course, that’s only part of the picture. Across the league, some of the Blue Jays’ rivals improved significantly while others began trading Impact players a way. Here’s how things have changed ahead of the 2022 trade deadline and what that means for the Blue Jays as they push for the playoffs…

Actually we are selling

Baltimore Orioles

Additions: Outfielder Brett Phillips, prospects Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, Juan Nunez and Juan Rojas.
Subtractions: First baseman Trey Mancini, reliever Jorge Lopez.

The Orioles started 2.5 games from the third wildcard spot on deadline day, but their playoff odds were just 2.4 percent, according to FanGraphs. GM Mike Elias decided to sell.

“Ultimately, I have to base my decisions on the prospects and the probabilities of this year,” Elias told reporters Wildcard on Monday.”

Rationally, this wasn’t the year the Orioles were going to win everything. So if some of the prospects gained become legitimate long-term contributors, it will have been worth it. In the meantime? Yes, these comments will not go down well in the clubhouse.

Meaning for Blue Jays: That’s good for the Blue Jays, who have 15 more matches to play against this weakened Orioles team.

Quiet in the center

Cleveland Guardian

Additions: Reliever Ian Hamilton
Subtractions: Catcher Sandy Leon

If you thought the Guardians would be motivated to make meaningful moves in hopes of closing the 1.0 game gap separating them from the AL Central-leading Twins, you’d be wrong. In order for Cleveland to return for the postseason, they need to bolster their existing roster.

Meaning for Blue Jays: At this point, it’s hard to see the Guardians pushing the Blue Jays for top wildcard spot.

Chicago White Sox

Additions: Reliever Jake Diekman
Subtractions: Catcher Reese McGuire

Maybe Diekman will push the White Sox over the top. Or maybe this is just not their year and they acknowledge that by being godparents.

Meaning for Blue Jays: Like the Guardians, they seem unlikely to get past the Blue Jays.

threading the needle

Boston Red Sox

Additions: Outfielder Tommy Pham, catcher Reese McGuire, first baseman Eric Hosmer, prospects Enmanuel Valdez, Wilyer Abreu, Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson.
Subtractions: A player to be named later or money considerations, reliever Jake Diekman, catcher Christian Vazquez, prospect Jay Groome.

This new version of the Red Sox is… different. Trading Vazquez wasn’t easy for Boston, but they didn’t stop there, adding Pham, Hosmer, McGuire and even a few prospects in a flurry of trades. Whether all of that activity will translate into better results in 2022 is an open question, but the Red Sox have added some long-term intrigue if this year ends without a playoff spot.

Meaning for Blue Jays: Difficult to say, but it doesn’t seem bad for Toronto.

Legitimate Buyers

Tampa Bay Rays

Additions: Outfielders David Peralta and Jose Siri, relievers Garrett Cleavinger.
Subtractions: Outfielder Brett Phillips, prospects Christian Cerda, Jayden Murray, Seth Johnson and German Tapia

This wasn’t the spiciest of deadline hauls, but the Rays gave out prospects to improve their list. With Peralta and Siri, they’re a better team now than they were a week ago

Meaning for Blue Jays: Slightly negative.

Minnesota twins

Additions: Helpers Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer, Starters Tyler Mahle, Catchers Sandy Leon
Subtractions: Reliever Ian Hamilton, prospects Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, Juan Nunez, Juan Rojas, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Steven Hajjar and Sawyer Gipson-Long

The twins needed pitching and they got it. They clearly beat their division rivals on Tuesday and now look like the best team in Central.

Meaning for Blue Jays: The Twins will now be harder to beat when the Blue Jays take on them in October.

Seafarers from Seattle

Additions: Starters Luis Castillo and Matthew Boyd, catcher Curt Casali, utility player Jake Lamb
Subtractions: Perspectives Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore, Michael Stryffeler and Andy Thomas

That period was all about Castillo, one of the best pitchers available. Along with Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert, Castillo gives Seattle a strong front three for the playoffs.

Meaning for Blue Jays: This is not good. The Mariners now appear to be a bigger threat in a bid to oust the Blue Jays from the top of the wild card standings and force the Blue Jays to hit the streets for the first round. That would be especially important if the Blue Jays are playing the Mariners because A) that’s a long flight and B) Ray hasn’t performed in Canada but he can serve in Seattle.

pushing goodbye

New York Yankees

Additions: Starters Frankie Montas, relievers Lou Trivino and Scott Effross, outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader, prospect Clayton Beeter
Subtractions: Pitchers Jordan Montgomery and JP Sears, outfielder Joey Gallo, prospects Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cooper Bowman, Hayden Wesneski, Beck Way, TJ Sikkema and Chandler Champlain

The Yankees were already an elite team. They probably could have won the AL East without a single addition. But by charging Brian Cashman on time, GM increased his team’s chances of making the World Series for the first time since 2009.

Granted, there are questions about all of these players. Benintendi is yet to be vaccinated, Trivino’s fastball has been hammered this year (0.342 average allowed, 0.684 batting percent) and Montas recently missed time with a sore shoulder.

Despite this, the Yankees significantly improved their roster, giving up eight prospects in the process.

Meaning for Blue Jays: The AL East continues to seem out of reach and the Yankees now look like an even tougher playoff opponent. Not good.

Houston Astros

Additions: Catcher Christian Vazquez, Reliever Will Smith, First Baseman Trey Mancini, Prospect Jayden Murray
Subtractions: Prospects Enmanuel Valdez, Wilyer Abreu and Chayce McDermott, starter Jake Odorizzi, outfielder Jose Siri

Like the Yankees, the Astros have a 12.0 game lead in their division that could have allowed them to roll out. But like Cashman, Houston’s GM added significantly to James Click in anticipation of a deep playoff run.

With the addition of Vazquez, Smith and Mancini, the Astros remain the biggest threat to the Yankees in the American League.

Meaning for Blue Jays: That’s not necessarily disastrous for the Blue Jays, but it’s never a good thing when your league’s top teams get stronger.

#Blue #Jays #odds #impacted #rivals #deadline #deals

 







About the author

adrina

Leave a Comment