What would their playoff list look like if the Blue Jays are close to victory?

TORONTO — There’s still a long way to go before the Blue Jays win. But with the AL East now officially out of reach and its magic number now down to two, a celebration could happen as early as Wednesday night. Barring a shocking reversal, the Blue Jays will begin a three-game wildcard streak starting Oct. 7.

Before team decision makers can plan their playoff list in detail, a few key questions need to be answered. Their opponent will “definitely” factor in to some extent, according to GM Ross Atkins, especially when it comes to final roster spots. And health will also shape the squads as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Santiago Espinal are currently on the injured list.

Within a week, the Blue Jays will have clarity on both fronts. In the meantime, they’re pushing for the clinch – while also thinking about the long road ahead of them.

“We’re focused on how we can position ourselves for the greatest success well into the postseason,” Atkins said Tuesday afternoon at the Rogers Center. “Of course that hopefully starts with Game 1 of the playoffs, but we want to make sure we’re aware that we can play as long as we can and as deep as we can.”

Step one will set the roster for three games in three days against either the Rays, the Mariners or the Guardians. The final decision will likely come by the day before the postseason begins, but here’s an educated early guess at how the Blue Jays will use those 26 roster spots, which can include up to 13 pitchers:

position player (14)

Danny Jansen C
Alejandro Kirk, C

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
Cavan Biggio, 2B
Santiago Espinal, 2B

Matt Chapman, 3B
Bo Bichette, SS

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., L.F
Georg Springer, CF
Teoscar Hernández, RF

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF
Bradley Zimmer, OF
Raimel Tapia, OF
Whit Merrifield, Util

pitchers (12)
Alek Manoah, RHP
Kevin Gausman, RHP

Ross Stripling, RHP
Jose Berrios, RHP

Jordan Romano, RHP
Yimi Garcia, RHP

Tim Mayza, LHP
Anthony Bass, RHP
Adam Cimber, RHP
Trevor Richards, RHP

David Phelps, RHP

Zach Pop, RHP

Notable omissions: RHP Mitch White, RHP Julian Merryweather, RHP Nate Pearson, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, C Gabriel Moreno

Once again – this is an educated guess at one of the many scenarios in the game. This option works well, but could white be on the list instead of pop? Secure. Or how about both? Maybe if the Blue Jays don’t field quite as many outfielders, that’ll be possible. And wouldn’t it be nice to also have Gabriel Moreno, who has been stealthily taking flyballs in midfield and doing some drills with the Blue Jays’ infielders? Well, ideally.

But with the squad cut from 28 to 26, some difficult decisions will have to be made. Good players will stay on the Blue Jays Taxi team. It’s the nature of baseball in October.

So why this particular configuration? Let’s start with the jugs. The Blue Jays could field as many as 13 arms and it’s hard to imagine them fielding fewer than 12.

START ROTATION
Even if the wildcard streak only lasts three games, it seems logical to bring four starters in case an unexpected injury strikes or a game goes into the stats (remember there is no such thing as an automatic runner in the postseason). That means you’re taking both Berrios and Stripling, leaving either eight or nine spots for helpers.

BULLP
Six helpers have been in the bullpen all year: Romano, Garcia, Mayza, Cimber, Richards and Phelps. Bass, a deadline acquisition, will also be on the list. That leaves a spot or two for more mugs.

If the Blue Jays want length, they could go to White. In theory, Kikuchi is another bulk option, but he seems to be looking inside from the outside. The same goes for Pearson, who probably won’t serve for the Blue Jays unless he gets injured.

The Blue Jays opted for White earlier this month, so they’re willing to drop him, but the same goes for Pop, who was opted in August, and Merryweather, who was sent down last week. As such, at least one bullpen spot appears to be up for grabs, and with the leading contenders for that being right-handers, there’s a chance Mayza is the Blue Jays’ lone left.

BANK

If the Blue Jays only field 12 pitchers, they would have room for a massive bench that would give manager John Schneider flexibility. There is real value in the defense Zimmer and Bradley Jr. provide late in the games. Although multiple defensive specialists are usually considered overkill, there’s still a clear role for these two.

It’s perhaps less obvious how Tapia fits in when Gurriel Jr. is fully healthy, but he offers a different look from the left side of the plate, as well as insurance should Gurriel Jr. need DH. And while Merrifield’s role looked uncertain a few weeks ago, his most recent game has bolstered his value as a utility player.

Of course, with all of those fielders on the Blue Jays’ roster, there probably isn’t room for a third catcher — a luxury any manager would want, especially when there are very real scenarios where the Blue Jays might want to seek out a catcher without losing their designated hitter. Moreno’s line-up would solve that problem, but at what cost?

Ultimately, the Blue Jays must balance the value of one more catcher against the value of an extra bullpen arm and the value of their various outfielders, while considering the health and relative strengths of their opponents.

The stakes are high up to that last place.