Ramblings: Preseason thoughts on Fox, Hamilton & Markstrom; Fantasy Draft Summary (5 Oct)

We’re two days away from the actual regular season games, your draft is probably already out, or you have a final one tonight (like me). Regardless, good luck for the year ahead and stay tuned here to keep you in the best possible position through the year.

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I’m giving my annual votes for the DobberHockey Writers’ Season Preview and trying not to take the easy consensus on everyone. At the risk of spoiling all my votes, I want to talk about a few thoughts I had when I submitted the names.

One of the predictions we make is our Norris winner. Cale Makar is the easy answer, and both Roman Josi and Victor Hedman are worthy voices as well. That said, the awards tend to feel a bit cyclical, and they get passed around a bit depending on who hasn’t won one (or so it seems). As a result, we culminate a little further down last year’s Norris vote and land immediately on Adam Fox. On a Rangers team primed to contend for the division title, Fox would stand out even if he scored just 60 points in a season. However, over the past season and a half, he has gone on a streak of 82 games in which he has scored at over a point a game. Oh, and he’s just hit his breakout threshold…

If you let that sink in for a second, a roughly 20% increase at an 80-point pace would mean roughly 96 points, which was exactly the number Josi scored to lead all defenders in points last year. It’s still going to be a tough battle with Makar, but I think Fox is leading all defenders in scoring this year and going head-to-head with the Norris.

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I have Calgary as my pick to get out of the Western Conference. I think the Flames, while not owning Makar, have the best defensive core in the entire league. They also have a better coach, a better goalkeeper and they still have some capable strikers. This is also the kind of team that has size and money that would make it easier for them to go out at the close to make a big toss. You drew well and your closet is far from empty.

All in all, I think Jacob Markstrom is a very real possibility to oust Igor Shesterkin for the Vezina Trophy and that the Flames will once again be one of the better sources of plus-minus ratios in the league.

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My bounce back player of the year is Dougie Hamilton. I think he has 60 points and 300 shots to make himself a top 5 fantasy defender. Between him, Jack Hughes and Vitek Vanecek, among some others, I’m big in a lot of Devils players this year and I think they’re really surprising as a top six team in the East.

Rick Roos agrees that Dougie had a great year. His annual column, Fearless Forecast, is out today, so come back and watch that this morning.

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In my toughest full redraft league, we always post summaries of what we thought of our picks and strategies and who got hit right before our pick that we’re definitely not still bitter about missing out. It’s a roto league with a whole bunch of categories plus kitchen sink, 25 rosters and 12 teams. I had the third overall pick and here is a brief synopsis of my thoughts and outline strategy below. Sometimes I find that kind of in-depth insight is more thought-provoking than any player stats or general advice we can give.

Foreword: I drafted third overall, I tend to make sure I have enough peripherals and I always screen out goaltenders.

Round 1 – Pick 3 Austin Matthews: I was happy to get either Draisaitl or Matthews here, although I might have preferred the Oilers star’s wing suitability. I think this is also my first time owning Matthews in Fantasy.

2-22 Evander Kane: I might not like him, but he’s a Tkachuk Lite who could even outperform both if things go in the right direction.

3-27 Tim Meier: I’m not sure how long he would have lasted on the board but I have a feeling it wouldn’t have lasted long. I love my previous goals, hits and shots as these are more difficult to charge in the early rounds.

4-46 Kris Letang: I considered a few others here but really didn’t want to be left without a top defender or two. Letang can be a top five defender in this league as long as he’s healthy (and I later grabbed Petry as a backup).

5-51 Darnell Nurse: Again, a strong peripheral defender and a high score, despite a lower rating cap.

6-70 Tanner Jeannot: At this point I made a hasty decision to focus less on FOWs and more on the broader categories. I also scored another hit in points but I knew there would be a few guys like Hughes, Thomas, Kyrou etc. that I could use to make up for that lack.

7-75 Sam Bennett: I got snapped on Trocheck here, and that probably made this the choice I’m least happy with. I think Bennett is getting a solid time with Tkachuk, while Verhaeghe, Duclair, and Reinhart are also solid secondary options to keep his point and peripheral production going. Again, no heavy FOWs for a C, but solid elsewhere.

8-94 Jack Hughes: At this point in the draft, getting a player whose total points match their draft slot number is much more attractive. Not much production elsewhere but I’m hoping for big things from Hughes this year.

9-99 Miro Heiskanen: There was another small group of ladies I liked for my D3 including Miro, Seth Jones and Devon Toews. I took the guy who was supposed to be growing into a bigger role. The other two went with the next two picks, which made me very happy I didn’t wait. It’s a league with very smart managers, so waiting past pick 100 for top defenders has never been a pleasure.

10-118 / 11-123 Ilya Samsonov/Matt Murray: We went over 100 in the draft so now I can look at the keepers. Lo and behold, there are a full 82 games left on the board by the President’s Trophy team. Being very close to the corner, it was doable to snag those two guys without stealing the second half. That’s happened to some of the other top-flight handcuffs like Pavel Francouz. I only ever design both sets of such a tandem in Roto. For H2H, my spots on the bench are too valuable to be wasted on goalies who only play three times every eight games.

12-142 Bryan Rost: Critically underestimated as a 75-point winger with decent periphery, he plays in what could be considered flat position.

13-147 Michael Bunt: I think he was the top guy left on my really tentative pre-draft ranking since I picked Sam Bennett. I couldn’t stare at him any longer, and it’s nice to double-dip in the first line of sheets. I don’t line stack too much, but having a set for every dozen players on your fantasy team feels right.

14-166 Jeff Petry: Wanted to make sure I got Petry for his peripherals and as a letang cover. His +/- kept his rank low, but with the move to PIT, that shouldn’t be an issue.

15-171 Ryan Pulock: I was keeping an eye on Robert Thomas here, but he played two picks early – I should have picked him earlier. I looked at the goalkeeper and didn’t see any standouts, I also looked at the front and there were some lower ranks so I went back to get my fifth defender. If I get my D5 here I can wait for #6 and even fill in from the FA stack if needed.

16-190 Ondrej Palat: I liked the idea here of stacking the NJ topline with a winger who also hits and shoots. Palat doesn’t get a lot of love outside of TB, but there’s no reason for him not to.

17-195 Evan Rodrigues: He was basically the only guy left of a wing-suited guy with FOW, and having the top of second-line center in COL was a bonus. However, if he breaks out then he’s a back nine pick and I can easily redeem that. These tips will win your league, but you won’t lose it by getting someone who ends up being substituted on the waiver wire for a better option.

18-214 Sean Durzi: At this point in the draft, I sorted the defenders by PPPs and found that there was an upside guy left in Durzi, so I had to grab him. There’s my six defenders, and while Durzi might not be ready to start the year, he’s again the kind of upside play you need to bet on here.

19-219 Alex Killorn: He hits and shoots quite a bit and should be a top power play staple and centered by Braden Point.

20-238: Dan Vladar: One of the few goalies to stay on the board from a top five team. I figured I’d catch him here, and if Markstrom’s animator were actually there, he probably wouldn’t have lasted as long. Not ideal for goaltender #3, but there are still a few darts left on the board and my other 82 games (other than the 82 already accounted for by the Maple Leafs’ tandem) will be a committee approach.

21-243 Jacob Reimer: Another starter remained on the board. He won’t make many wins but will make some decent odds and make a lot of saves. He also starts the season early, and when a player has four games under his belt in the first week, it’s always easier to sell them earlier than the player with one (which doesn’t make sense since there’s a discrepancy in the remaining Play there… but I digress). .

22-262 Jordan Staal: I had my eyes on Staal, Philip Danault, Sean Couturier and Mikael Granlund around round 17 and decided to wait for them and just pick the last one left. Well, Danault made a few picks before, so I jumped on Staal. Again on topic, lots of peripherals but a lower cap on points.

23-267 Alexander Holtz: I don’t know if Holtz scores, but he’s having some fun at this point in the draft, and owning what could potentially be the Devil’s entire topline is the kind of late-draft risk that translates into a real league can transform. Winner. If I end up dropping him for a guy like Mario Ferraro or Calle Jarnkrok in a week, then so be it.

24-286 / 25-291 Laurent Brossoit/Adin Hill: Ideally, Brossoit is back about five games into the season, and Vegas sends down Thompson, who is running with a Brossoit/Hill tandem. If so, that’s 70+ games for me from another playoff team. I love being able to wait for goalkeepers.

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Unfortunately, Scott Perunovich will miss at least the next six months, which basically means he is out for the season. Perfect time to buy it cheap in Dynasty Leagues when you have room to stash it. During his time on the NHL roster, there was no guarantee he would make the team, but it now marks a permanent marker on the top power play unit in Torey Krug’s name. I might bump his points projection up a few notches (or at least raise his bottom for the season) with the news.

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you find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have questions or comments about fantasy hockey.

Until next Wednesday!