Thursday Night Football Picks, Prediction: Colts vs. Broncos Preview

Colts vs Broncos Odds

A matchup of two offenses without their star running backs takes center stage on Thursday Night Football as the Colts travel to take on the Broncos.

Denver is 2-2 under rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett while Indianapolis is 1-2-1, though the only win came against the Chiefs.

Let’s try to find an advantage in this game.

Colts vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis

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Colts vs. Broncos DVOA breakdown

Total DVOA	32	8th
Pass DVOA	30	6
Rush DVOA	32	20

Total DVOA	24	13
Pass DVOA	17	27
Rush DVOA	26	2

When the Colts have the ball

The Colts’ offense was terrible for the first four weeks of the season, finishing bottom in the DVOA. Now they have to do without their best player, Jonathan Taylor.

Much of the blame can be laid on Matt Ryan, who looked like a demotion from Carson Wentz earlier in the season. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, Ryan ranks 23rd in adjusted net yards per attempt, 19th in QB rating, and 27th in expected points added per game.

Ryan has played like a top 20-25 QB so far this season. His poor EPA per game could most likely be attributed to him leading the league with nine fumbles in the season, two of which Titans gave the ball in the red zone last week and converted to 14 points. Those costly turnovers were devastating for the Colts early in the season, but I can’t imagine a veteran like Ryan continuing to make these kinds of mistakes. We must also remember that he was without his two best WRs in Week 2, which was one of the many reasons behind the Colts’ embarrassing 24-0 loss to the Jaguars.

The Colts have been a fairly balanced team this year, finishing 19th in early down pass rate (in neutral situations). However, I expect they’ll be more pass-heavy when Taylor isn’t in the lineup, and they’ll likely run more packages, with pass-catcher specialist Nyheim Hines likely leading the backfield.

When the Broncos have the ball

The Broncos are also without the start of RB Javonte Williams, who has torn his cruciate ligament and will miss the rest of the season. However, the Broncos should be fine with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone taking the backfield, and they also added Latavius ​​Murray on Monday.

This is also a matchup the Broncos are likely to attack through the air, as the Colts defense ranks second in DVOA against the run but 27th against the pass.

One of the problems that has plagued the Broncos has been their inability to score in the red zone. A very small 30% of red-zone trips this season have resulted in a TD that ranks last in the NFL. Two of those drives ended in a fumble inside the 10-yard line. I have to imagine that number falling towards the league average as Russell Wilson adjusts to the new scheme.

Both offenses have performed below expectations and will be without their starting RBs this week.

I’m expecting a more pass-heavy game plan from both teams currently ranked in the bottom six of the red zone TD%. I expect both teams to have better luck in the red zone going forward and that could happen as early as tonight. 80% of the action was down here, but I think that’s more of an overreaction to the first four weeks of the season.

I’m projecting this closer to 43.5, so I like the value we’re getting here, especially considering 43 is a key number. It’s 42.5 on BetMGM and FanDuel, but you can get 42 on most other books.

I still consider this just “Lean”. Be sure to follow me on the Action app to be notified when I close this bet.

Tip: Tend to be over 42