The greatest weakness of any postseason contender

Every team has at least one weakness, even the biggest postseason powerhouses. So let’s take a look at what they are for this year’s field as the postseason is about to begin.

Here’s the biggest weakness for any 2022 postseason contender.

Teams are listed in seeding order by season if the season ended today. Statistics are through Friday.

Yuli Gurriel has been a rock in every Astros postseason run since her 2017 championship season. But at 38, he just wasn’t the same this year. The reigning AL batting champion has seen his batting average drop from .319 to .240 in 2022, a career low for an entire season. And Trey Mancini, who could have been another option at first base, has batted below the Mendoza line with a .184 average since arriving in Houston from the Orioles.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa just isn’t in the same league as some other star shortstops in the postseason – the likes of Bo Bichette, Wander Franco, Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor. The Yankees brought him in to try and answer their pressing offseason shortstop question, but despite being a daily starter and contributing 21 stolen bases, he hasn’t given New York much offense (four homers, 85 OPS+) and his Defense is down against Rangers (15 errors, -3 outs above average).

Warden: Lack of hard contact

Cleveland has plenty of players who have had solid years, but the team’s lack of hard contact could become an issue in the postseason as they face off against ace pitchers and come up against strong offenses. The Guardians just don’t hit the ball hard, a problem exemplified by their rotating line-up at designated hitters, where they have the second-worst offensive performance in the league (68 wRC+). The Guardians’ batting rate of 33.1% is the lowest of the majors — they’re the only team to hit the ball hard less than a third of the time — and their average exit speed of 87.2 mph is the lowest in baseball. to. So does their 4.8% barrel rate — which means less than 1 in 20 balls they hit will hit the highest level of exit velocity and launch angle likely to result in an extra base hit or home run .

Blue Jays: Depth of rotation

Alek Manoah is a bulldog. Kevin Gausman is evil. Then what? José Berríos was supposed to be a third ace, but he’s lost his stuff this season, with a 5.37 ERA, a league-high 196 hits and 99 earned runs, and his lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season (Jan ,8th). Ross Stripling has been more consistent, but he doesn’t have the same electric advantage and doesn’t tend to go very deep into games. Meanwhile, Mitch White has a 7.38 ERA and Yusei Kikuchi might not even make the postseason list if the Jays don’t trust him on big points.

Mariners: Health of Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodríguez is the Mariners’ greatest strength. In her first postseason appearance in over 20 years, having to play without him — or not with him at full strength — would be her greatest weakness. J-Rod is on the injury list with a back strain, and the fact that Seattle sent him to the IL with a postseason spot on the line at the most critical point of the season shows there are real concerns there. The Mariners think their rookie sensation will be ready by the time 10 days is up, but if Rodríguez is restricted by his back at all, Seattle won’t be the same.

Rays: Playing on the street

Oddly enough, the Rays have had trouble winning on the road this season, with a 35-42 record outside Tropicana Field guaranteeing they will finish under .500 on the road. Their .461 win rate is the worst of any postseason team, and they are the only contender in the bottom half of the league on the road record. That could end up being important since the Rays are a wild card team, meaning they may have to play their entire first postseason series outside of The Trop in the new postseason format.

Dodgers: Rotational Balance

Here’s an odd quirk of the Juggernaut Dodgers: they’ll show their opponents many similar looks with their initial pitching. The Dodgers could have a left-handed starting rotation in the postseason — Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney — depending on whether Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May can get back on form after returning from injury. The Dodgers’ lefties are all very good lefties, but maybe a team with big right hitters (let’s say the Cardinals with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Albert Pujols) can find the slightest advantage there.

Braves: Over-aggressiveness

So could Spencer Strider’s health as well, as the breakout rookie’s obliques put his postseason in doubt. But let’s look at Atlanta’s team offense. The defending World Series champions are one of the most aggressive teams in baseball. Sometimes that can be a double-edged sword. Atlanta has the highest swing and miss rate of any team in baseball at 28.4%. The Braves chase 31% of pitches from the strike zone, the third-highest in MLB, and they slam in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances, also the third-highest. Hitters like Dansby Swanson can be great when they’re hot, but when they’re not it could result in a lot of strikes (Swanson has 180 vs. 47 walks this season, for example).

The Cardinals have had the fewest swings-and-misses of any pitcher in baseball, resulting in a major league-low puff rate of 22.2% this season. Their 19.7% strikeout rate as a team is the sixth lowest in the majors, and they rank well behind all other postseason teams. St. Louis starters in particular are seeing low strikeout numbers, with Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, José Quintana and Jordan Montgomery all hitting under one batter per inning. Getting Jack Flaherty back to his old self could go a long way, but other than that, if the Cardinals need a big strike in the postseason, will they make it?

The Mets have an elite starting rotation led by Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. They have an elite closer in Edwin Díaz. But the bridge between them has plagued New York at times this season. The Mets have setup options like Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Adam Ottavino, but the team had too many mean relief inconsistencies, forcing the Mets to test starters like David Peterson and Tylor Megill in the bullpen. Someone’s gotta get those outs in October.

Padres (didn’t win): Midfield

Trent Grisham plays great defense in midfield, but his offense wasn’t there all the way as he hit .068 in September to drop his season average to .182, well below the Mendoza line. Even with his 17 home runs this season, that’s a problem. And if not for Grisham, the Padres would have to turn to José Azocar, who is more of a draw option, or Wil Myers, who isn’t a true midfielder. That makes midfield the Padres’ main post-season concern.

Phillies (did not win): Defense

The Phillies’ defensive problems are no secret; It’s been a story since the offseason when they added Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to a team that was already one of the worst fielding teams in the league. And the season has gone as expected — Philadelphia is second-to-bottom in the majors with -34 outs above average, which is by far the worst postseason of any team (the Brewers are closest at -1 OAA). , and every other competing team is above average defensively). The hope is that Schwarber & Co. will overcome their immune deficiency…but will they?

Brauer (didn’t win): Contact hit

(Note: Milwaukee is one game behind the Phillies for the last NL wildcard spot)

The Brewers are lucky they still have Devin Williams, or their trade with Josh Hader at Deadline would make the back end of their bullpen by far their greatest weakness. But let’s look at how their lineup is built. Milwaukee has some power hitters — Rowdy Tellez has 34 homers, Willy Adames has 31, Hunter Renfroe has 28, and so on. But contact? It’s nowhere to be found. The Brewers have not had a regular batting above .260 this season (Renfroe is the “leader”…at .252), and their .235 team average is the lowest among NL postseason contenders.