Why Berrio’s latest adaptation could unlock his consistency for the Blue Jays

Jose Berrios started in 2022 as a paragon of consistency, but this year he was the Toronto Blue Jays’ most inconsistent starter.

While it’s easy to underestimate the built-in volatility of even elite player performance, the right-hander’s season has been a roller-coaster ride by every measure.

Often this description is just a cliché. In the case of Berrios, that’s about as good a metaphor as you’ll find – as evidenced by his five-game rolling ERA (with his 2021 season providing a solid point of reference):

Most of the extreme peaks are pointing up, which is given that his ERA has been 5.07 all season. But he also had a few severe stretches.

The right-hander’s season included moments of brilliance mixed with the disappointments. For example, he elevated his career with strikeouts on June 4th and reached them on July 12th. He was also a top-10 starter in the majors, both by innings (36) and strikeouts (42) in July.

Time and time again he seems to come around the corner with a new adjustment, ranging from release point changes to pitch mix changes, only to fall to the floor. In the last few days, Berrios has started another experiment.

In his two starts in September, the 28-year-old has thrown his move at a higher rate than ever. On each of those outings, he’s been using it at least 29 percent of the time — an unprecedented number for him, resulting in a monthly usage chart that looks like this:

The results were strong (12.1 innings with 2.19 ERA balls), but the sample is far too small to know how that will play out. Still, the theory behind it is fascinating.

First off, it’s worth noting that the playing field is not, in and of itself, a dominant offering. The Berrios Changeup has a +3 run stat in his career, and opponents have hit .241 and batted .410 off. His movement is perfectly normal both vertically (2% above average) and horizontally (1% above average).

There’s a reason it took so long to show the pitch. Neither the movement of the move nor the hits of success they’ve had against it suggest she should lead the 28-year-old’s arsenal.

Despite his lack of a vacuum, Berrios’ move could be extremely valuable in the context of the starters’ struggles on opening day.

Perhaps his biggest problem is the way his four-seam fastball was crushed. Opponents hit .357 and hit .649 off, and Statcast’s run rating has pinned it as the sixth-worst field in baseball.

It’s possible that increasing its Changeup usage could make this fastball a better playing field in some ways than its other offerings. His breaking ball and sinker both have a ton of horizontal movement that lets them tunnel well with each other…

…but none are easily mistaken for the vertically oriented four-seamer on the way in. The ideal pitch to pair with this pitch is a big 12-6 curve, but the change can get the job done:

At this point, Berrios, who is highly committed to the switch, has too small a sample to know if it will have the desired effect on his heating. Opponents are 3-to-7 at this court in the last two games, but it will be interesting to see if that changes as he continues this approach.

Between Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Blue Jays have had a number of starters who are seeing their fastballs fare far better due to heavy switch usage. Berrios doesn’t have a change to match this trio, but these pitchers are prime examples of how that off-speed pitch can affect a fastball’s performance.

Another reason Berrios may be tinkering with a more transition-focused approach is the difficulties he’s had with left-handers. Over the past two seasons, lefties have hit .273/.330/.498 against the veteran.

Over the same span of time, left-handed hitters have batted .232 and batted .333 against his change, and his puff rate against them has fluctuated between 22 and 30 percent each career year. It might not be as aesthetically pleasing as his breaking ball, but he does grab a pretty one that falls out of reach from time to time.

In his last two starts, he’s used that pitch 41.6 percent of the time for lefties, and it’s worked, as they’ve hit .188 of them without an extra base knock. It’s a small sample, but it’s clearly a new attacking plan considering he hasn’t used it at a rate of more than 27 percent against Linke in any other month of his career.

At the moment, we’re seeing one change in a series of many from Berrios. It’s way too early to know if it will work.

What we can say with confidence is that his latest adjustment aims to address some of his biggest weaknesses in a meaningful way.