Red-Hot Mike Trout hits homers again – and it’s time for Engel to trade him

Mike Trout could well hit 20 homers in his last 20 games of 2022 at the rate he’s attained. The Los Angeles Angels shouldn’t need to be told to enjoy it while it lasts.

Instead, they might really need to hear that these next 20 games should also be Trout’s last in an Angels uniform.

Trout himself has a lot to show for his 12 years with the Angels. The 31-year-old is a surefire Hall of Famer-to-be whose credentials include 10 All-Star selections, three American League MVPs, two contracts totaling over $500 million, and enough statistical accolades to earn his own streak in the United States Fill Stathead Tool from Baseball Reference.

In it, one of the top entries would be Trout’s recent home run barrage between September 4th and 12th. Though he fell short of tying the all-time record of eight straight games, homering in seven straight games is still pretty damn impressive.

The problem here, of course, isn’t how much Trout has to show for his time with the Angels, but how little the team has to show for it. His 12 years at Anaheim coincided with just one playoff appearance and seven lost seasons to date. At 61-81, the Angels only need one loss to make it to eight.

According to his announcement in August, Angels owner Arte Moreno has apparently found that this problem need not be his problem anymore. He wants to sell the team, which of course throws many aspects of his future up in the air.

However, the trout aspect need not be a mystery. The Angels should try to sell him up in a deal this winter, for them and especially for him.

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The injuries only affect Trout’s playing time

As superhuman as Trout looked for most of his tenure with the Angels, the injuries he’s sustained over the past six seasons tell him he’s just an extraordinary person.

There was thumb surgery in 2017 and foot surgery in 2019, followed by a calf strain that cost him all but 36 games in 2021. More recently, he missed over a month of this season with a rib injury that the Angels discovered was actually part of a rare back condition.

Still, it should be part of Trout’s legend that none of those injuries were apparent while he was still able to play. As of 2017, he’s been .298/.429/.630 with 185 OPS+, with a 162 game average of 50 homers and 17 stolen bases.

What he’s accomplished this year is particularly notable, as his 35 home runs rank second only to Aaron Judge’s 57 among the American Leaguers, despite only making 420 plate appearances.

Add a base percentage of 0.367 and what Saved saves is rated as an above-average midfield defense, and you get the main components of Trout’s 5.3 rWAR. Far from his twice peak 10.5, but still elite among AL racquets when measured on a 162 game scale:

1. Aaron Judge, NYY: 10.3 WAR/162
2. Mike Trout, LAA: 8.6 WAR/162
3. Andrés Gimenez, CLE: 7.7 WAR/162
4. Jordan Alvarez, HOU: 7.6 WAR/162
5. Julio Rodríguez, SEA: 7.1 WAR/162

Despite his injuries and the shortened 2020 season, Trout’s 81.4 career rWAR still ranks ahead of Hall of Fame midfielders like Joe DiMaggio (79.2) and Duke Snider (65.9), and he could see Ken Griffey Jr. ( 83.8) definitely overtake at the end of 2022.

So yes. Trout really is still exceptional. It shouldn’t be necessary to say it, and yet it feels like it. Not just because he’s lost so much time to injuries, but also how tragically irrelevant the Angels’ endless blah has made his exploits.

It is high time that something was done about this.

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This winter could be the Angels’ last best chance to sell high

Aside from the fact that Moreno tagged the Angels with a “For Sale” sign, Trout would be a logical trading contender for the 2022-23 offseason in more ways than one.

Starting with how…

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The clock is ticking in its heyday

Although Trout’s injuries have severely limited his availability up to this point, it’s only a matter of time before his skills begin to wane as well.

His back condition is a big red flag. Trout might do well with his explanation that the initial panic over the diagnosis was “a little overblown,” but Angels coach Mike Frostad’s warning that the star will have to manage the disease “for the rest of his career” always resonates still after.

The age of trout also invites skepticism. When he turned 31 on August 7, he might have been officially declared a middle-aged baseball player. There’s no scarier cautionary tale about the future than Griffey, who basically turned into a substitute after his season aged 30 in 2000.

To this point, Trout has actually gotten a bargain with his nearly $200 million in career earnings. But that is past. To be honest, the idea that with the nearly $300 million he owes over his 38-year season in 2030 he can also get a bargain, it’s far-fetched.

It therefore makes sense for the Angels to move Trout before he and his contract become truly immobile, especially considering that…

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The organization is broken

Largely because of Trout and (speaking of immobile players) Anthony Rendon, the Angels have no less than $70 million in guaranteed dollars on their books through 2026. For a team whose payrolls are maxed out in the $180 million range, that’s a lot of weight.

The team’s farm system, meanwhile, is just awful. B/R’s Joel Reuter ranked it the worst in baseball after the June draft, and it also ranked bottom for MLB.com, even after the team added young talent by the August 2 close.

When a team is that fucked up, it’s time to rebuild it. And that can still be the case with a new owner, because…

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Your next owner may not be a miracle worker

Given the inevitable sale of the Angels, the best-case scenario is a situation similar to Steve Cohen’s purchase of the New York Mets. Since taking control of the Mets in November 2020, he’s basically tipped the scales. Unfortunately, the Mets are now contenders for the 2022 World Series.

But is a quick recovery the most realistic scenario for the Angels? Maybe not.

Moreno’s decision came so late that he might have a hard time completing a sale before opening day 2023. Also, there just aren’t many potential buyers with pockets as deep as Cohen’s. Namely, forbes The net worth of the supposedly interested Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong ($7.2 billion) is more than $10 billion behind Cohen ($17.5 billion).

Rather than a Cohen-style rebuild, the Angels may be in for a more traditional rebuild under their next owner. As in one that would take a lot of time.

Although, hypothetically, Trout could do like Miguel Cabrera with the Detroit Tigers and serve out his remaining contract in Anaheim while his fame fades to nothing, let’s just say…

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Trout deserves better

When news of Moreno’s decision to sell the Angels broke, Trout’s public statements gracefully straddle the line between politeness and uncertainty.

“I’m still trying to process it,” he told reporters. “I found out when you found out. Looking back, I’ve been here my whole career. Had some great times with Arte. He took care of me, my family. I appreciate everything he has done for me. I guess he keeps going.”

Trout’s fondness for Moreno is about what you’d expect considering A) he’s the only owner he’s ever played for, and B) said owner signed him to not one, but two historic contracts Has.

And yet, at times, Trout has been vocal about his frustration at all the losses. While he never seemed like the type of guy who would ask for a trade, he’s had a good reason to do so for a long time. And with the angels on a death spiral and for sale at the same time, there’s even more reason for him to want out now.

Rather than effectively challenging Trout to demand a trade, Moreno and the angels should see the writing on the wall and be the ones to get the ball rolling. If he’d rather stay, he can either say so or ultimately exercise his no-trade clause.

Otherwise, a trade would be a doorway to an amicable breakup and a winning opportunity that Anaheim won’t be seeing anytime soon.

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Let’s speculate about possible homes for trout

Relevant precedents for what a trout trade might look like include the 2017 blockbuster that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Yankees and the 2021 blockbuster in which the St. Louis Cardinals landed Nolan Arenado.

Since the former was basically a pure pay loser, the Angels would be better off putting their own spin on the latter to get both much-needed pay cuts and young talent.

Because of their status as fringe competitors, the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox could be long shots in midfield despite their big budgets and shared needs. The Philadelphia Phillies are a better fit, and Trout’s fondness for the city’s soccer team probably wouldn’t hurt their cause.

However, with the Phillies’ payroll already at an all-time high of $228.7 million, the more convenient eastern landing sites for trout may be in New York. That’s where the Yankees (Judge) and Mets (Brandon Nimmo) stand to lose their primary midfielders to the free hand. Other upcoming free agents plan to further increase the flexibility of each club’s payroll.

It’s harder to imagine Trout going anywhere else in Southern California, particularly to archrivals the Los Angeles Dodgers. But to the San Diego Padres? Maybe. Their pay situation isn’t much better than the Phillies’, but a foursome consisting of Trout, Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. is just what general manager AJ Preller would want.

Admittedly, this whole thing is a “maybe”. There should be no doubt that we’re just indulging in a little imagination as to what the angels should be doing. If Moreno Trout doesn’t want to trade even if he has one foot out front, well, that’s his prerogative.

All we’re saying is that Trout is still too good for the purgatory that the angels were and will continue to imprison him if they do nothing. The best time for him to leave was yesterday. The next best time is soon.

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Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.