Chargers vs. Chiefs Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

With Keenan Allen and the Chargers injured just a week ago, the total for running back Austin Ekeler’s receiving yards is way too low. Expect Justin Herbert to be relying heavily on Ekeler against the Chiefs as he tries to set Kansas City on fire again.

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will have a quick turnaround as the top two teams in the AFC West battle it out for the week two opener on Thursday night.

Keenan Allen looks like a no-go, but there’s still value in LA’s passing game, while bettors should look to the Chargers’ secondary for chances as Kansas City’s offense can’t be stopped.

Here are my free NFL player prop picks for the Thursday Night Football game between the Chargers and the Chiefs.

Chargers vs. Chiefs prop picks

Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.

Chargers vs. Chiefs TNF Props

Tyreek who?

In his first game as chief, JuJu Smith-Schuster caught six balls for 79 yards on eight goals – all in the first half. True, he fumbled twice, but the Chiefs had control in the second half and didn’t need much from anyone. He saw 46 snaps just five away from the team lead (Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 51) and two more than Travis Kelce.

The former Steeler led all Kansas City wide receivers with a 20.5% goal share and nearly doubled Valdez-Scantling’s air yards per reception. Patrick Mahomes spent a lot of time training with his new receivers ahead of the season and it showed on Sunday. If the Chargers can hold that Kansas City offense on pass, Smith-Schuster’s 53.5 yards haven’t adjusted enough to accommodate that approach. His receiving yard closed at 47.5 yards last week.

Last week, the Chargers allowed nine passes from 15 or more yards and struggled to slow the heavily attacked Davante Adams (17 goals and 141 yards).

This is a Pro Bowl receiver who had 111 catches for over 1,4000 yards with Pittsburgh before his quarterback’s arm gave out. If Smith-Schuster goes off in Week 2 against a Chargers team whose QB has thrown nearly 1,000 yards in the last three meetings, that yard total won’t be back in the 50s. He could finish in the top-12 by the end of the season if he gains yards.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Prop: Over 53.5 yards (-101 at Caesars)

Increased reception possibilities

Even without Keenen Allen, Justin Herbert has a great matchup against runner-up Kansas City. The Chiefs came into the season without bully Mathieu, who was a safety leader last season, and now outside cornerback Trent McDuffie looks in doubt after being sent off last week. He played 32 snaps before the injury.

Herbert joined Arrowhead a season ago and dropped four touchdowns and 281 yards of passing. With Mike Williams likely to garner additional attention and a two-goal Week 1 performance, Austin Ekeler will be a big part of the Chargers’ passing game on Thursday.

Ekeler caught 6 of 6 goals for 52 yards and a goal in the last encounter and caught four balls on Sunday despite the positive game script. The Kansas City Pass Rush, which created a lot of pressure last week (88.6%), also helps us support RB. Kyler Murray struggled looking down against the Chiefs and only had three balls from 20 or more yards, averaging just 3.0 air yards per attempt.

With Allen gone, Williams expanding the field and the KC defense starting to create some pressure, I bet Ekler is more involved than usual, especially in the short week. In his six games against KC with Herbert under center, Ekeler has averaged 7.3 goals and 6.2 catches for 52.3 yards per game.

The books adjusted Ekeler’s receiving yards by five total yards, but with the Allen injury and a potential for a heavy-passing game script, that’s not enough. Ekeler ended last week with 33 receiving yards but also played most of the game with the lead and Herbert dished it around his goals. I like both this game and his 95.5+ rushing and receiving yards as he will likely be the center of offense.

Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 37.5 yards (-114)

Beating the D markets

Budda Baker ended Week 1 with 20 total tackles against the Chiefs, who played 66 plays and threw up 33 (!) first downs. Now it will be up to Nasir Adderley to slow down this KC offensive which will provide many attacking opportunities.

The free safety had just four total tackles last week, but Las Vegas’ offense was nonexistent in the first half. He played 100% of the snaps in the game and comes to TNF with just a 5.5 total tackle + assist. He finished last year’s Kansas City meeting with 10 total tackles and had seven or more total tackles in 10 of his 15 games.

Adderley does well on run defense and pass rush while not being the best coverage safety on the team, which is great for tackle props. With Mahomes aiming for his tight ends 12 times in Week 1 with 39 passes, Adderley may have even more tackle opportunities if the Chargers man-mark.

With an offense that moved the ball with ease last week, the Chiefs are creating more tackle opportunities than other teams, and without JC Jackson, this is a secondary that allows for more finishing, which means more tackles for the likes of Adderley.

Nasir Adderley Prop: Over 5.5 tackles plus assists (-120)

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