As I began my return to hockey writing last week, I started with what I consider to be the most interesting bag in the league: These were the four teams that made up the bottom of the Atlantic Division in 2021-22.
There was a clear split between the eight teams in the division, with four (Florida, Toronto, Tampa Bay and Boston) in the league top-10 with 107 points or more and the other four (Montreal, Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo) included the league’s bottom quarter and finished over 30 points from a playoff berth.
However, these bottom teams had aggressive summers and apparently aimed to actually win hockey games in the near future. I expect each of them to get better and around the same time – which I find interesting – and that’s how I’ve written so much.
What was not mentioned in this article was that the other bottom teams being better at the same time obviously hurt each other’s chances of moving up the table. A team that gets just a little bit better might actually find that team is not keeping up and falling further behind.
Nor was there any mention of what to think of the teams that were once cup contenders and were eliminated from the playoffs in the first round (Leafs), second (Panthers and Bruins) and cup final (Lightning).
Will the division be just as strong? Are some of these teams significantly better or weaker?
The answers here will have a big impact on whether the bottom four teams have a chance of catching someone and whether any of those teams have a chance of catching Colorado and actually winning the cup.
There was no shortage of trains and every roster is different. Let’s see how, starting with the team that went furthest in the playoffs and then working our way back.
Tampa Bay Blitz
I don’t think there are many arguments that the 2022-23 Lightning will be “better”.
That doesn’t mean they won’t be impressive, but salary cap concerns have cost them Ondrej Palat, who was one of those sneaky post-stars ‘next layer’ players who added tremendous value to their cup runs. At 11, he was the team’s lead in playoff goals last run.
They also traded Ryan McDonagh to Nashville (for D-Man Phillippe Myers and budding forward Grant Mismash), and all McDonagh did last year was finish second on the team in the Ice Age during their playoff run, with an average from 22:26 per game. In addition, the Bolts lost Jan Ruuta to the Penguins, who had been paired regularly with Victor Hedman for the past few seasons.
What they did do, however, was make sure they kept their most meaningful pieces.
They renewed Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak and Anthony Cirelli for eight years each. They also extended Nick Paul by seven years and are expecting more from 24-year-old Brandon Hagel, whom they took on at deadline. You still have Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy. They added Vlad Namestnikov to fill some of the gap and they think there’s more of young guys like Ross Colton and Cal Foote.
What I’m seeing is a damn good, proven team with the kind of core that ensures they’re competitive and all hell breaks loose in the playoffs once again.
But roster-wise, they’re probably worse off by a small percentage, and they won’t have Cirelli or Zach Bogosian for shoulder surgeries until December. Some of their players would have spent the start of the offseason rehab, including Brayden Point. I see the possibility – after three cup finals in a row for a slower start to the season.
Florida Panther
The reigning President’s Trophy champions took the opposite path from our next team, the Toronto Maple Leafs: After a crushing postseason loss, they swapped out a crucial core piece and completely changed the look of their roster.
Their version of “doing it” says last year they didn’t believe in the way they were built. Jonathan Huberdeau finished fifth in Hart Trophy voting and was eliminated along with D-Man MacKenzie Weegar, who scored over 40 points from the back end.
You only do something that drastic when you have full faith in what’s coming the other way, and what’s coming back to them in Matthew Tkachuk, who had over 100 points last year to go with a more physical lead (a crucial one factor, in my opinion, that’s why they valued him over Huberdeau).
Huberdeau is out, Weegar is out, Mason Marchment signed with Dallas, Claude Giroux with Ottawa and Ben Chiarot with Detroit. After those names went away, they added Colin White, Nick Cousins, Marc Staal, Anthony Bitetto, and Michael Del Zotto (the latter two spent some time in the AHL last season).
Tkachuk is a special player entering his prime and a wonderful addition. Maybe she does it better, or at least differently than a one-for-one swap with Huberdeau. After that, it’s almost impossible to argue that they improved this offseason (which would have been awfully hard after winning the President’s Trophy and the existing salary cap).
There is still a lot of talent here and a very good team. But they’ve had a career-year performance from a number of players last season (goals by Barkov, 39, Bennett, 28, Reinhart, 33, Verhaeghe, 24, and Duclair, 31, the latter of whom may miss most of the regular season with Achilles tear).
Pretty much everything was fine. Like Tampa, I’d say, if anything, they’re a few percentage points behind just judging their roster.
It will be up to arguably their biggest signing – head coach Paul Maurice – to ensure they are primed not only for regular-season success but also for the playoffs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Despite the howls and howls of bloodthirsty cheeks across Ontario, the Leafs are pushing it back, baby. Nothing can go wrong there.
Unlike the Panthers, the front office apparently believes in this core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.
The Leafs have 54 wins and are fourth in the regular season before, despite having the same result as the previous five playoffs, they have a first-round performance that many have described as “different” — a first-round knockout .
The Leafs are losing starting goaltender Jack Campbell, who was either spectacular or cruel depending on which half of the season you pick, and Ilya Mikheyev, who was an impactful backup player for the Leafs.
In turn, roster additions look similar to last season, when the Leafs got a grab bag of cheap players in hopes that someone can break out and thrive.
Calle Jarnkrok is a reliable addition at an affordable price, although not really a needle mover. Adam Gaudette is a potential breakout player with some upsides, and there’s hope that the dash gang of Nicolas Aubel-Kubel and Zach Aston-Reese can take a more energetic, physical look towards the end of the lineup, where the hands have it usually hosts older or more powerful players. (If these guys hope to remain fourth-line guys, “Strich-Gang” better just refer to their last names.)
The biggest change is that after Campbell left and Petr Mrazek was dealt to Chicago, the team banked on a recovery from Matt Murray (who is coming off a season with a 0.906 percent save rate, his best year since 2018-19) . and Ilya Samsonov, who was an .896 last year.
Murray is only 28, but it’s hard to find many who believe he’ll be the guy to take this team over the hill, and Samsonov looks like a lottery ticket at best (although, for lack of other options, it looks like would they have chosen at least the best available lottery ticket).
In favor of the Leafs, last year, of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, only one had a team save percentage worse than Toronto’s .899 (January 22).nd in the NHL). The team was good from the start without a goalkeeper.
If Murray and Samsonov are doing well, then so should the Leafs.
The room for internal improvement seems small. The core has been stellar this past season, and on the way up in terms of prospects, only Matthew Knies after his college (or college) season perhaps Nick Robertson?) serve as players who could have an immediate impact.
And so it goes: The Leafs have been doing very well, and with good health, they will be very well again. They think if they bang their heads on the door with this group long enough, the damn thing will eventually open. And it may! It could be, or they could get a concussion in the process and give up once and for all. Stay tuned.
Boston Bruins
Tomorrow’s Boston Bruins will look more like the Boston Bruins of yesteryear as both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci have returned to deliver a double strike down the middle. The newest face will be behind the bench as Bruce Cassidy has been sacked in favor of Jim Montgomery. Still, the core and culture of this group should remain as Bergeron, Krejci, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy all return.
The Bruins’ biggest question mark behind their aging core is a big one: Can they survive the early months? Marchand has had surgery on both hips and will be out until at least December, and McAvoy had shoulder surgery that kept him out for just as long. Matt Grzelcyk also had work on his right shoulder, leaving him out at least until November.
This feels like the Islanders’ situation last year: the team had a brutal road trip while their new arena was being completed (and then immediately COVID) to start the year, and the sentiment was that if only they lasted long could tread enough water, she would be fine if they have a few home games and get healthy. But for the islands, the season was too far over before they could get there.
The Bruins are not short of talent. It’ll still be Bergeron and Pastrnak and Taylor Hall and Krejci and Hampus Lindholm, complemented by guys like Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk and Brandon Carlo.
Between Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, I expect someone to give them saves. You won’t be bad all of a sudden, but it feels like it could be a struggle at times in the beginning. They’ll need a good year from Nick Foligno and maybe some Pavel Zacha and a couple of D-men to exceed expectations.
Last season they were the bottom team of the “Big Four” in the Atlantic Division. I’d expect them back there, and if someone rises from the bottom, I imagine the Bruins are the first team they hope to track down.
What does that mean for the rest
Here’s some good news for lower-tier teams in the Atlantic. I don’t see a single team in the top half of the group that seems poised to do better and that’s not exactly a blow.
We’re at a point where the teams that have been competitive and tried to win trophies are having the hardest time maintaining deep rosters after years of a flat salary cap. While the talent has been shorn from above like a bartender cleaning the foam off a fresh pint, some of the good stuff has fallen to the teams below.
It’s one thing to rise to the top, but staying there is nearly impossible in the NHL’s current economic climate. This is reflected in the best of this division and with that the games should be competitive and closer than ever.
#expect #top #Atlantic #Division #season
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