Happy Monday nation and welcome to a fresh mailbag to help start your week and break down what’s going on at the Edmonton Oilers. This week we’re looking at Kailer Yamamoto’s Expansion, Calgary’s Big Splash, Warren Foegele, and a whole lot more. If you have a question you would like to ask, email it to me [email protected] or contact me on twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible.
1) Clay Asks – First thoughts on contract extension with Kailer Yamamoto in terms of term and dollars?
Jason Gregory:
What I expected after signing Puljujarvi. If Yamamoto remains a 20-goal player, the 45-point player contract is solid.
Robin Brownlee:
As expected. fair money. If both sides are satisfied, the table is set for the longer term.
Cam Lewis:
I used Andreas Athanasiou from when Ken Holland was in Detroit this summer as a comparison to Yamamoto, since both players came out of a year-long show-me deal and Yamamoto’s deal ended almost exactly as expected.
packet milk:
I like that. Lock him up for a few years while still retaining his rights at the end of the contract. I’m getting nervous that he might blossom as this bridge deal progresses, but we’ll address that issue later.
2) Gregg asks – I’d like to get everyone’s opinion on Jonathan Huberdeau’s contract extension that he just signed. Isn’t that a lot of money and time for a player who will be 30 when the contract starts?
Jason Gregory:
I understand the cap hit, but the structure of the deal is strange to me. It really benefits the player. He gets $10.5 million every year. I thought the Flames would have preferred it a bit so if he started to age in the last year or two a buyout would be a possibility and Huberdeau would have gotten most of his money early even if he was bought for $4m/ year in cash the last two seasons, he would still sign with another team for around $1.5 million and he would still get all his money. This deal cannot be bought out, which isn’t ideal for the Flames in recent seasons.
Robin Brownlee:
I like the player, I just don’t like the term and this deal will see Huberdeau take over at the age of 30-38. History tells us that players’ most productive years are around the age of 34-35 in their rearview mirror, so the back half of this deal is likely to be challenging.
Cam Lewis:
You’re paying for the player he is right now, someone who scored 115 points and finished fifth in Hart Trophy voting. If Calgary hadn’t given him elite player money, someone else would have next summer. These contracts almost always age badly, but that’s how free agency works.
packet milk:
Calgary fleeced the Panthers in that trade and I still don’t understand what Florida did. The Huberdeau deal is too long and too much for his age, but what will you do? We’ll do the same thing with Leon in three years.
3) Mitch Asks – Jack Campbell’s current career high in games played is 49 from last season with the Leafs. What do you think would be an appropriate breakup between him and Stuart Skinner?
Jason Gregory:
Ideally, he’ll play 55-57 games and Skinner’s around 25-27. Whether Skinner can give the Oilers 25-27 solid games is probably more of a question than Campbell can start 55-57 at this point.
Robin Brownlee:
Unless performance dictates otherwise, there’s nothing wrong with re-enrolling Campbell for about 50 and Skinner for the rest.
Cam Lewis:
The ideal game would be 50 games for Campbell and 30 games for Skinner, but there’s obviously no guarantee that will happen. Campbell has a history of injuries and has struggled when taking on larger workloads, so the Oilers will need Skinner to be a good 1B this season. They also have a solid insurance option in Cal Pickard.
packet milk:
Campbell has to play at least 50 and that’s a big challenge for a guy who’s never done that before, so I just hope he stays healthy and gives us some consistency. I think Skinner will be ready to deal with anything thrown his way.
4) Thomas asks – Where do you see Warren Foegele on the team at the moment? If Dylan Holloway cracks the squad, he could see himself playing minutes in the 4th row, right?
Jason Gregory:
I still think EDM has too many wingers so one could be dealt. I see Foegele starting with McLeod on the third row, but his game will determine how long he stays there.
Robin Brownlee:
Secure. He is a third or fourth liner. What Mattias Janmark does will also have an impact.
Cam Lewis:
I’m not sure if it’s a guarantee that Holloway will crack the list first time. Ken Holland is conservative about his prospects and might like the idea of Holloway earning his spot rather than giving a guy like Foegele a gift to him. However, money is tight and someone needs to be transferred before the season starts. It’s hard to say who that will be.
packet milk:
Whenever Holloway breaks the team, Foegele starts on the fourth row and I don’t think that’s a great seat for a guy making $2.75 million. I’d bet Gregor’s money that he’s the one who gets moved.
5) Richard Asks – If the Oilers really want to push for a trophy this year or next, they need to look at their defense and make 1 or 2 upgrades.
Would trading make sense for any of the following Dumba (min), Chychrun (AZ), Theodore (LV) or Seth Jones (big ticket buy)? On a trade you can lose Barrie, JP, a #1 pick (an extremely low one if a trophy is won) and a prospect. LV is in serious trouble now and a good defender might be available even if you send back a good D-Man. Chi is building back up and we all know if the right offer comes for Jones and you can get them to hold 30-50% Cap Hit and give them some pieces to use in the long term and some that in the short term they can flip for more pieces. AZ still seems to be in tank mode, so it could well be a place to turn in a salary or two and get back some valuables that will allow the cup window to stay open for multiple seasons.
We all know draft picks are valuable trading chips, but when the window opens for a shot at a trophy, you shove it all in and go big, or get on your knees and pray to the hockey gods, and that’s what you do Want from the discount bin at the dollar store can you pull through?
Jason Gregory:
I don’t see any appreciable trade (return) ahead of the season. Also, Vegas won’t deal Theodore to EDM, and I’d be surprised if Minny dealt Dumba as well. Jones will likely want to exit CHI since they are in full rundown mode, but they won’t keep 30-50% for eight years. Chychrun seems like the most likely of the four, but ARI has asked for a lot so far and teams have not been willing to give them that. I suspect the price will have to come down before I can purchase it.
Robin Brownlee:
Seth Jones? He’s grossly overpaid and there’s no room for that kind of money in the Oilers. He’s not that good. It’s a valid question, but it’s the second week of August and you’re making a lot of guesses as to where MIN, AZ and CHI might be and who they might be looking to move. Let’s see where these teams and the Oilers are in 20 games and go from there.
Cam Lewis:
I don’t think there will be much movement before the close. Holland and Co. need some time to see what works in the team and what doesn’t. The big move maybe has to be a goalkeeper, maybe it has to be a defender. It depends on injuries and performance.
packet milk:
I want Chychrun, but it looks like we’re not allowed to have him… yet.
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