NFL Week 8 Odds, Tips: Seahawks snatch Giants underdog streak, Commanders spoil Sam Ehlinger’s debut

I said last week that the week 7 list felt difficult, but I was wrong. In the spirit of the Christmas season, it was actually a treat. I went through the weekend with 11-3 ATS in my picks, which included a 4-1 ATS mark in my five locks of the week. The only blunder was scoring with the Patriots on Monday night. But we chose the Cardinals, Bengals, Jets and Giants to keep things going.

It was by far my best week of the season so we’ll try to replicate that as best we can as we move into week 8, starting with my five locks.

Record 2022

regular season
Castles of the week ATS: 15-18-2
ATS: 49-56-3
ML: 59-49

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

We have not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks scheduled to start this game, so you know there’s going to be some chaos at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts named Sam Ehlinger as the starter over Matt Ryan, and the former sixth-round pick will now be gearing up for his first career start. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke started last week’s win over Green Bay and will continue to do so with Carson Wentz on IR. At this point, I’ll take the points and the more experienced quarterback with the commanders. In his last nine starts, Heinicke is 7-2 ATS, which includes an upset win over the Packers in Week 7. Meanwhile, Ehlinger now faces one of the toughest third-down defenses in the NFL. Washington is the second-best third-down defense in the league, which will be too much for the sophomore QB.

Estimated score: Commanders 23, Colts 17
The selection: Commanders +3

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks-3

We watched the Giants score points against the Jaguars last week and quickly pounced on it. After all, they are underdogs this season with 5-0 SU, which makes them an ideal choice in this game, right? Not quite. This is the place to start fading that perfect canine record as they fly across the country and have to play in one of the NFL’s more daunting stadiums. Not to mention, the Seahawks have been a pleasant surprise this season, and Geno Smith is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league while boasting an offense that currently ranks third in the NFL in DVOA. Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last 15 starts.

Estimated score: Seahawks 27, Giants 23
The selection: Seahawks -3

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

In principle, I would like to have the Bucs at this point. You are a house dog who scores points after a demoralizing defeat on the road. That’s the recipe for a make-good game. However, I just don’t trust this version of Tampa Bay to be capable of that kind of bounce-back performance. Tom Brady and company have lost five straight ATS, averaging just 17.7 points per game, and the quarterback’s 6.6 yards per attempt is the fourth-worst of his seven-game career.

Historically, Brady has been a great home dog, covering in 11 of his 12 games in this environment (best coverage percentage since 1970). Again, I just don’t think this is the old Brady, nor does the team around him seem capable of rising.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have played Brady well throughout his career. His completion percentage of 59.7, TD-INT ratio of 1.2 and passer rating of 80.1 are the worst compared to any other team in his career (at least five starts).

Estimated score: Ravens 24, privateers 21
The selection: Ravens -1.5

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions +3.5

With a game under his belt, Tua Tagovailoa should be even more polished in his second start since returning from a concussion and having a favorable matchup against Detroit. This secondary Lions allows 7.7 yards per pass, the second highest in the NFL. That suggests Tagovailoa should be able to tear through the air with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle chunk plays. With the Lions, that offensive has died down, averaging just six total points in their last two games.

Estimated score: Dolphins 30, lions 24
The selection: Dolphins -3

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings -3.5

The Cardinals are another team that featured in my locks a week ago that we’re fading now. The offensive welcomed DeAndre Hopkins back into the herd in his win over New Orleans last week, and while the star played well far out, the offensive as a whole didn’t look as impressive. Hopkins accounted for half of Arizona’s total in the reception game without another passer recording five receptions or exceeding 32 yards. I believe the Vikings will be able to disrupt Hopkins, which will then force Kyler Murray to choose other options. If they get results similar to what they did a week ago, Minnesota shouldn’t worry about putting the field goal and hook. The Vikings are also a perfect 3-0 SU at home this season with an average win percentage of nine points.

Estimated score: Vikings 27, Cardinals 23
The selection: Vikings -3.5

rest of the bunch

Broncos at Jaguars
Estimated score: Jaguars 24, Broncos 21
The selection: Jaguars -2.5

Panthers at hawks
Estimated score: Falcon 27, Panther 21
The selection: Falcons -4.5

bears at cowboys
Estimated score: Cowboys 30, bears 17
The selection: Cowboys -9.5

robber at saints
Estimated score: Saints 30, hunters 27
The selection: Holy +2

Patriots at Jets
Estimated score: Jets 24, Patriots 21
The selection: Jets +1.5

Steeler at Eagle
Estimated score: Eagles 30, Steelers 20
The selection: Steeler’s +11

Titans at texan
Estimated score: Titans 24, Texans 20
The selection: Titans -2

49ers at Aries
Estimated score: 49ers 23, Rams 20
The selection: 49ers -1.5

packer at bills
Estimated score: Bills 33, Packers 24
The selection: Packers +11.5

Bengal at Brown
Estimated score: Bengal 27, Brown’s 23
The selection: Bengal -3