Monday Morning Leafs Report: The Mystery of Tavares’ Fast Start and Matthews’ Trends

LAS VEGAS — John Tavares’ quick start to the season could be at least partially explained by a big change he made during the offseason.

After 15 years working with renowned skating coach Dawn Braid—in other words, throughout his NHL career—Tavares turned to Paul Matheson, who joined the Leafs in the offseason as a skating development advisor.

Ahead of his 14th NHL season, the Leafs captain was desperate to pick up the pace department.

With Matheson’s help, Tavares worked to be lighter on his skates. To do this, he recently explained, means changing the way he pushes off the ice. He described some of the work as almost like skating and during his work after practice on Sunday it looked only like that.

He was light on his feet.

In fact, Tavares looks a little more explosive to start, like he’s gained half a step at 32. That contributed to a remarkably successful early attempt at turning pucks in the offensive zone, including on the power play.

That has created more scoring chances for the current Leafs’ top scorer.

“He looks really comfortable — really comfortable with the puck, off the puck,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe after practice in Vegas on Sunday. “Defensively he was really good… I just like a lot of things about his game.”

Tavares has made most of his man advantage deals so far: three goals and five points. He was a hunter at the net, hitting twice with fast hands over the weekend in Winnipeg – once with a flip under the bar, again with a tip.

JOHNNY THOUGHT SO 🔝 pic.twitter.com/rCb6RmWzt6

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 22, 2022

Two to the night for Johnny! 🚨 pic.twitter.com/kjjITE2mmB

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 23, 2022

It’s early but encouraging for the Leafs, Tavares’ shot rates are all high this season:

Note those high-risk attempts – 17 already, the second-highest number in the league so far.

Looking ahead, what’s most intriguing is whether a slightly faster Tavares at five-a-side can have a bigger impact on the game.

Tavares has yet to score a five-a-side goal this season and has only managed one such assist so far.

The Leafs, with their captain, are scoring the same 55 percent of expected goals as last season, but with slightly improved defensive results.

Sedins-like treatment helped (68 percent offensive faceoff starting percentage). The same with slightly better wheels.

“This offseason has been really good for him,” Keefe noted after Tavares’ two-goal away game. “He was healthy all the time and he could really push and really challenge and try to improve his game and improve his game.”

Five points

1. Austin Matthews, Pt. 1: Auston Matthews is still stuck on a target but pretty sure the surge is coming.

Matthews’ shooting ratings in his first six NHL seasons: 14.3, 18.2, 14.7, 16.2, 18.5, 17.2.

So far this season: 3.6 percent.

Matthews hit once in 28 shots.

Some bad luck? Apparently.

Up until the Winnipeg game, Matthews didn’t draw the same looks online either.

The two biggest green diamonds below came against the Jets in a resurgent performance from the Leafs’ No. 1 line:

Matthews was fair a little off in the morning. He missed the net on 12 of his 54 attempts (10 went wide) and had a number of good looks that were blocked by guys who happened to be in his way.

Notable: Matthews netted once in his first six games last season and finished with 60 goals (in 73 games).

Level of concern: Low.

2. Austin Matthews, Pt. 2: Another early shot trend for Matthews: He gets few clean chances on the power play.

After six games, Matthews has attempted 13 shots on the power play but only hit the net four times.

He is yet to score on the power play, having led the team with 16 power play goals last season. However, he made an extra effort to start Tavares’ first power-play goal in Winnipeg and fired the shot Tavares tapped on his second power-play goal in the same game against the Jets.

In the end, it doesn’t matter who scores the goals for the Leafs, as long as someone does. But obviously it would help create better opportunities for the best shooter in the world.

3. Austin Matthews, Pt. 3: Another notable Matthews stat from the start: he’s winning fewer draws, just 48 percent so far.

Matthews buzzed one of the top figures in the league last season at over 56 percent.

The drop could be explained by the lower back issue that Matthews appears to be playing through.

4. Healthy: The Leafs were on the verge of disaster early last week.

It happened late Monday morning, before a game against the Arizona Coyotes that Erik Kallgren opened.

That meant extra work at the end of the skate for Ilya Samsonov, who was due on a night off. After taking shots from Nick Robertson and Wayne Simmonds, scratches that night for the Leafs, Samsonov came onto the bench uncomfortably.

He showed the medical trainer his left hand just below the index finger and winced with discomfort. He tried it with his glove, looked uncomfortable and quickly left the ice with the trainer.

GM Kyle Dubas followed him from the stands.

Luckily for the Leafs, the news was positive: Samsonov was examined and found to be fine. He won his next two starts and remains undefeated as a Leaf.

5. New sheet: Nicolas Aube-Kubel looks like someone who is still adjusting to life with a new team – again.

The Leafs are his third team in the last two seasons. He was released from waivers by Colorado after starting the year in Philadelphia earlier last season.

Aube-Kubel had not played with anyone in the current group before joining the Leafs on a one-year, $1 million contract last summer. The Leafs’ training camp trip to Gravenhurst helped him meet some of these new teammates, including his golf crew of Jake Muzzin, Victor Mete and Kallgren.

“I like the team a lot,” he said.

Aube-Kubel, who is being scratched for a second straight game in Vegas, said he’s still learning the tendencies of his new linemates at the Leafs — primarily David Kampf and Zach Aston-Reese. He was the most physical player on the team.

“It’s nice to get physical,” said Aube-Kubel. “I think we can add a bit more offense. We didn’t have many shots or chances to score.”

Aube-Kubel has only registered one shot so far. It can be good with space.

“It will be better in the next few games,” he said.

bonus point: The Leafs’ most physical defender to date with 19 goals: That would be Rasmus Sandin.

Sandin lands a hit on Perfetti

Dubois jumps Sandin, Bunting and Holl jump i pic.twitter.com/FjgvvcM2iO

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) October 23, 2022

Things I think, I think

1. The Leafs need Pierre Engvall to offensively spark the bottom of the lineup. He’s the only guy with Ilya Mikheyev potential, that is, a fast goalscorer who might be able to score 20 goals.

Engvall signed a one-year deal worth $2.25 million in the summer after scoring 15 goals last season.

The foot injury he sustained before camp puts him a little behind his peers.

Engvall is yet to register a point this season, accumulating just seven shots and eight hits and was barely noticeable before being scratched in Winnipeg. He will return to the lineup in Vegas.

If he can’t pose a threat in the bottom six, the Leafs may need to find someone who can.

2. I wouldn’t have predicted Simmonds and Kyle Clifford both Playing in October while Aube-Kubel and Aston-Reese were healthy. Hard to deny the impact they had as a combo in Winnipeg. That earned them another mission against the Golden Knights. I remain skeptical that both can still help a playoff lineup, but maybe they can give the Leafs a thing or two (edge, physicality, etc.) as regular-season deep wingers (capacity place willing).

point of curiosity

When is the topline breakout coming?

I mentioned Matthews (repeatedly). But what about his line?

It’s a testament to the ridiculously high standard set by Matthews, Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting last year that their start to the year was so-so – even with their sparkling 61 percent expected goals mark.

Choose a little deeper and the eye test mostly agrees with the underlying numbers.

The line generates zone time and opportunities (though not as many as before), but doesn’t convert. What’s more surprising is what’s going on at the other end, where Matthews, Marner and Bunting are giving up more substance than they did last year.

Last season: 44 shot attempts and 2.0 goals conceded per 60 minutes.

This season: 50 shot attempts and 2.4 expected goals conceded per 60 minutes.

However, that is beginning to change.

The three-pointer was dominant in Winnipeg, albeit not on the scorers’ list. Most notably, all the turnovers they forced and turned into offensive chances were a cornerstone of the line’s success last season.

“It’s very prevalent in their game,” Keefe said. “They are elite at stealing back the puck and the work ethic they have to stay on the puck makes it really difficult for opponents to get out (of the defending zone). So when they really get going, they get the puck back two, three, four times in the same shift and wear their opponent down and make him lose his structure.

The Leafs coach felt the Jets game was the best outing of the season in that regard.

Matthews, Marner and Bunting are all stuck on a single five-a-side goal. Last year there were 81 altogether.

A tide is coming.

(Photo above: James Carey Lauder / USA Today)

Statistics and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference