Nuggets vs Warriors NBA odds, tips and predictions tonight

The Denver season got off to a horrible start and was overwhelmed by fueling jazz. In game two, the Nuggets head to the Bay Area, and our NBA betting tips show why Nikola Jokic & Co. can stay close against the Warriors.

The defending champions Golden State Warriors will look to start their season with a second straight win as they host the Denver Nuggets in San Francisco on Friday night.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets lost 21 points in their opener against the Utah Jazz and now face a tough challenge to bounce back against the Warriors.

This is a replay of a first round playoff game from last season. We’ll talk about how this series can help us hamper Friday’s game in our NBA Nuggets vs. Warriors betting tips and predictions on October 21 — and what’s changed since then.

Nuggets vs Warriors best odds

Tips and predictions for Nuggets vs. Warriors

In last year’s playoff fight, Golden State found ways to minimize Nikola Jokic’s impact en route to a 4-1 series win over Denver. That’s despite the fact that the Nuggets won three of the four regular-season meetings between the two teams last year.

The Warriors were able to partially focus on Jokic due to the absences of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., both of whom missed the entire 2021-22 season through injuries. Murray and Porter are back in action now, which should make the Nuggets a far stronger opponent this year.

That didn’t show in Denver’s opener as Utah scored 75 points in the first half and never gave up their early lead. Still, there’s plenty of reason for optimism about the Nuggets season, especially as Murray and Porter continue to work to get back in shape after a year off.

The Warriors played with an 11-man rotation in their opening win against the Los Angeles Lakers. That’s partly a demonstration of the defending champions’ impressive depth, which should allow them to rest the stars and survive injuries throughout the regular season, but it was also due to the minute limitations of Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.

Golden State coach Steve Kerr has confirmed that he plans to get those two players back into playing more minutes over the next few weeks and that for now he plans to rely on the depth of his team to win games. It’s a solid strategy, but it will put the Warriors at a disadvantage against their most talented opponents.

That includes the nuggets, especially now that they’re back in full strength. Denver won last year’s season streak — including both games in San Francisco — in large part because Jokic’s full lineup could be the two-time MVP’s matchup nightmare when all defense can’t focus on him.

Denver needs to play better than they did against the Jazz on Friday if they want to win against Golden State. But regular-season play between these teams has generally favored the Nuggets, and while I’m not confident they’ll leave San Francisco with a win, I think they’ll be in this game to the end regardless of who gets the win gained.

I’ll take the nuggets and the five points, which is a generous spread given the history between these two teams.

my best bet: Nuggets +5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Nuggets vs. Warriors spread analysis

Golden State started as a six-point favorite for Friday’s game, though bettors have brought that number down to 4.5 points as of this morning on most sportsbooks.

We already talked about the spread in my Best Bet section above, but it’s worth taking a second look at last year’s matchups. Denver walked away with two narrow wins in San Francisco, winning by one point and then three points in those two encounters. The teams split two games in Denver later in the season, with the Nuggets winning three days by seven before the Warriors eventually went on to a nine-point win.

It is noteworthy that the Nuggets were able to achieve this during the regular season even with a roster built mostly around Jokic. While Jokic averaged 27.1 points per game along with 13.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists, no one on the Denver roster averaged more than 15 points per night. Aaron Gordon (15.0 ppg) and Will Barton (14.7) were the top scorers outside of Jokic.

Denver will look different with Murray, who averaged 21.2 points per game in the 2020-21 season, and Porter, who averaged 19 points this season. Those extra weapons should give the Nuggets far better ground balance and take some of the pressure off of Jokic, making Friday’s game an even tougher matchup for Golden State.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Over/Under Analysis

Oddsmakers posted a total of 229.5 on Friday and that number has remained constant, with totals between 229 and 230 available on various sites. The large total reflects the offensive firepower both teams display, especially when you factor in Golden State’s depth and Denver’s returning stars.

It’s difficult to top the total given that these two teams have come together for some very different games over the past year. The Nuggets and Warriors accumulated 255 points in one of their regular-season meetings last year while scoring just 175 points another night. Four of the five playoff games would have made the over with a total score of 229.5, but teams only managed 200 points in Golden State’s Game 5 clincher.

All in all, I tend to bet on the Under in Friday’s game. Those unfamiliar with last season’s numbers might be surprised to learn that, despite their star power, neither Denver nor Golden State were among the top scoring teams in the league. The Nuggets were averaging 112.6 points per game – good for 10th place in the NBA – while the Warriors were 13th (111.2 ppg).

Where Golden State really shone last season was on defense, which allowed just 105.8 points a night. Denver was also solid, ranking 15th in the NBA in goal defense (110.9 ppg).

Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Trend You Should Know

The Nuggets have won three of their last four regular season games directly against the Warriors. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.

Information about the game Nuggets vs. Warriors

Nuggets vs Warriors key injuries

pages on this topic