- Health experts say this flu season is likely to be severe.
- Currently, Texas, Georgia, and Washington DC are all experiencing high levels of influenza activity, and it’s only the beginning of influenza season.
- Her best way to avoid severe flu symptoms is to get the flu shot, but only half of Americans say they plan to get vaccinated.
Infectious disease experts are expecting a tough flu season.
The southern hemisphere just wrapped up its worst flu season in years, suggesting the northern hemisphere could face a severe flu season soon.
Texas, Georgia and Washington DC are already looking unusually high
Most flu cases this season were caused by influenza A
While the flu shot appears to be a good match for circulating strains, a recent poll found that nearly half of Americans are not planning to get a flu shot this year.
Exactly what that means for this year’s flu season is yet to be seen, but doctors suspect the country is ripe for a surprise flu comeback.
Healthline asked four flu experts what to expect this flu season. Here’s what they said.
dr Michael Chang, an infectious disease physician at Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, Texas
dr Susan Hassig, an epidemiologist and professor in the Department of Epidemiology at Tulane University’s School of Public Health
dr Erica Johnson, infectious disease physician and chair of the Infectious Disease Board of the American Board of Internal Medicine
dr Theodore Strange, General Practitioner and Chair of Medicine at Staten Island University Hospital
dr Chang: The number of positive outpatient flu tests had increased a few weeks ago and has increased significantly in the past two weeks. This is earlier than usual to see a spike in flu cases. For Texas, we tend to see an increase in flu after the Thanksgiving holiday. However, it is still too early to assess whether the cases are more serious so far. It’s surprising as we still had warm and/or autumnal weather so most people don’t think about the flu. Even for those planning to get vaccinated, many people have yet to get their seasonal flu shot, and our region may be caught off guard. Unfortunately, many other parts of the country are likely to see an increase in flu cases before people made plans to get vaccinated.
dr Strange: The influenza virus has been spreading in the United States for about a month. Texas and New York both have high levels of influenza activity, likely from large population centers and large numbers of travelers. Having large states already with high activity probably indicates a very active and contagious flu season.
dr Chang: It’s difficult to make accurate predictions for any part of the country, but it’s reasonable to assume that as cold weather sets in, we’ll see an increase in cases of influenza and other respiratory viruses. However, everyone should be prepared for the flu season to start a few weeks earlier than usual.
dr Strange: The season usually begins in October, with peaks and peaks between December and February, and slowly diminishes as winter ends and spring begins.
dr Johnson: The composition of this year’s influenza vaccine includes protection against one influenza A H3N2 strain, as well as one influenza A H1N1 strain and two influenza B types. The decision to include this H3N2 strain was based on the fact that it matched the strain circulating mostly in the US during last year’s flu season.
dr hateful: So far, the current flu shot appears to be a good match for the virus circulating in the US, but uptake of the flu vaccine is still lower than we would like, especially among older populations. The inclusion of vaccines this year is important because the dominant flu strain appears to have a tendency to cause more severe illness and has historically been responsible for the higher mortality rates we see in some flu seasons.
dr hateful: It’s been a bad season (with lots of serious illnesses) in the southern hemisphere during their winter and what they’re experiencing is often a good indicator of what’s about to happen in the US.
dr Chang: The recent Southern Hemisphere flu appeared to be a “heavy” flu season, with more cases than a few years before. It appeared to be similar or even slightly worse than the 2017-2018 season, which was considered a high severity season by the CDC in the United States. I expect we will see the same phenomenon here, especially as flu season starts earlier and many people are unvaccinated.
dr Johnson: In the southern hemisphere, influenza transmission generally occurs from April to September, and this season saw more influenza activity in the southern hemisphere than the previous two seasons. So it makes sense to worry that we might see more flu activity in the US this flu season as well.
dr hateful: I worry that many Americans are not thinking about the threat that the flu could pose in the United States. Influenza can cause serious illness and death in both the very young and old.
dr Johnson: If you don’t get the flu vaccine, that person may be at risk for a more serious illness if they contract the influenza virus. And more severe flu can mean more days lost from work and school and more hospitalizations due to flu complications.
dr Strange: Not getting vaccinated increases your chances of spreading the disease and increasing your susceptibility to a more severe case of the disease and even death from the flu.
dr Chang: Since we haven’t had two “normal” flu seasons, many people’s immunity to seasonal flu will be reduced. Exposure to flu each season can help boost a person’s immune response against the next season’s flu. Given that we had relatively fewer cases of influenza in 2020 in particular, it is possible and probable that this year we are likely to see higher rates of serious illness from influenza, particularly among unvaccinated individuals, exacerbated by traditionally low influenza vaccination rates becomes.
dr hateful: I do think that coming out of the pandemic years with their various preventive measures (masks, focus on hand hygiene, staying at home when sick) has greatly reduced our natural interaction with influenza and Sars-CoV-2. With those measures now largely absent, coupled with the decline in routine health interactions, including routine childhood and adult vaccinations, it also sets us up for what could be a bad season. We’re seeing increases in a variety of respiratory diseases in general, and there’s no reason to think the flu will be any different.
dr Strange: The best ways to prevent and limit the effects if you do catch the flu are to get vaccinated now, wash your hands and wear a mask when in crowded areas with restricted airflow. Even if you’re sick with flu-like symptoms, be smart and isolate yourself from others, especially those at high risk.
dr Johnson: The best thing you can do is get your seasonal flu vaccine and these are now widely available. It can take up to two weeks for the vaccine to be most effective after administration and since the influenza virus is already circulating it is best to do so as soon as possible.
dr Chang: While we hope the vaccine will prevent influenza infection, we really want to minimize the risk of serious illness and serious consequences. The flu shot is the best way to do this. In addition, patients with underlying conditions such as heart disease, diabetes or lung conditions such as asthma need to be confident that their conditions are well controlled and that they are optimizing the management of their other conditions. Finally, if you are sick or have symptoms, try to stay home to minimize the risk of spreading your infection to others, be it the flu or something else!
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