Monday Night Football Picks, Prediction: Raiders vs. Chiefs Preview

Raiders vs Chiefs Odds

The Chiefs beat the Raiders in two games last season with an aggregate score of 89-23. Should we expect more of this this time?

Matchup analysis between Raiders and Chiefs

Toggle the dropdown menus below to show or hide how the Raiders and Chiefs statistically match:

Raiders vs. Chiefs DVOA breakdown

Total DVOA	20	14
Pass DVOA	21	21
Rush DVOA	13	5

Total DVOA	5	20
Pass DVOA	7	22
Rush DVOA	17	16

The first thing you need to know is that you need to kick out last year’s games. The Raiders have a new coaching staff and new personnel in key positions that are changing the dynamic of this encounter.

The second thing to know is that the Raiders were one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL for four weeks. According to Sean Koerner’s Luck Rankings, the Raiders were the second-luckiest team with a below-expectation 1.22 wins — thanks largely to a 0-3 record in one-score games that tends to gravitate towards the mean.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs were the ninth luckiest and created the biggest luck discrepancy of any game in Week 5.

From an offensive standpoint, Davante Adams, the Raiders’ new No. 1 receiver, changes the dynamic compared to last season. You can’t come to Arrowhead expecting to beat Patrick Mahomes — or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, for that matter — by nicking it with your tight end and slot receiver.

The Chiefs have always been one of the worst-managed defensemen in the league. The Chiefs’ biggest weakness this year has come against passing, where they rank 21st. Specifically, they rank 29th in the DVOA compared to the No. 1 wide receivers, which is where Adams comes in.

For four weeks, Adams is second in the league in goals (47), third in TD catches (30), ninth in receptions (26), and 15th in reception yards (290).

The Chiefs lost a talented corner in Charvarius Ward by free hand, and rookie Jaylen Watson takes his nugget on the outside. Derek Carr will have the trio of Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back together for the first time since Week 2. Carr should become more comfortable on offense with Josh McDaniels as the season progresses.

The Chiefs have played well this season, with their most impressive performance coming in a 41-31 win over the Bucs on Sunday Night Football. Still, they weren’t quite as good as they appear overall.

According to my colleague Nick Giffen, the Chiefs scored 17.3 more than expected, thanks in part to a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown in Week 2.

Remember how I said we have to discard last year’s results? The main reason for this was former Raiders defense coordinator Gus Bradley.

While the rest of the league cunningly forced Mahomes and company to dink and dunk by playing two-high cases, Bradley doggedly stuck to his single-high scheme. Coupled with the Raiders’ lack of staff, for Mahomes it was like playing Madden on beginner difficulty.

This season, the Raiders aren’t just improved from a personnel standpoint — and they’d be a lot better if someone could find the real Chandler Jones — but also from a schematic standpoint. Their new defensive coordinator is Patrick Graham, who spent the last few years with the Giants and, despite staffing shortages, successfully took action against high-profile quarterbacks.

Most notably, Graham brought his Giants defense on the road to Arrowhead last Monday night in Week 8 and held a Chiefs offense that averaged 26.9 points and 419.3 yards overall for 20 points and 368 yards. Despite an offense led by Daniel Jones, the Giants almost staved off the excitement and lost 20-17.

Andy Reid has always been strong in Monday Night Football (7-2-1 ATS with the Chiefs), but that’s factored into (and possibly inflated?) the line that should be closer to Chiefs -6 (our PRO models have it chiefs -5.9).

Three factors create value for the Raiders at this point:

1. Having Adams on offense to attack the Chiefs’ 29th defense against the No. 1 wide receiver.
2. Having Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator, who last year as the Giants’ defensive coordinator devised a plan that kept the Chiefs to 20 points at Arrowhead on a Monday night.
3. The luck discrepancy between the two teams, believed to be the biggest in Week 5.

It’s easy to fall prey to recency bias since the Chiefs beat a superior team in the Bucs last week, but weakening the Chiefs in those spots has proven profitable over the long run.

According to our Action Labs data, the Chiefs are just 7-17 (29%) against distribution in Mahomes-started games when favored by more than three points from early November of the 2020 season.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Raiders +7.5 | Bet on +6.5