Week 5 player props and NFL best bets

We’re going into week 5 of the 2022 NFL season and the prop betting isn’t slowing down. Today I’m supporting a receiver who saw 30% or more of his team’s goals on Sunday and a quarterback who ranks #1 on Pro Football Focus.

Latest NFL Prop Picks

• Williams for 65.5 yards (-115)
• Smith for 235.5 yards (-110)

Check out the full tips analysis below or click here for the full betting map.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

big mike

Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers were without receivers Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton, and this week Josh Palmer is a question with an ankle injury. Palmer is more likely than doubt after putting in a full practice session on Friday, but that pass-catching group is thin.

Mike Williams is the healthiest and best receiver going into Week 5. Even with a possible increase in goal percentage after hitting 11 goals on 39 passes a week ago, his total in the receiving area is lower than in Weeks 2 and 3. The Cleveland Browns have one of the worst run defenses in football, ranking 30th in EPA/Rush.

That’s why the defense gives up big plays in the high school, as only two other teams allow more yards per completion than the Browns. Trying not to get stabbed to the ground opens up deeper holes in the secondary. Cleveland’s pass defense is actually a top-five unit but has often been exposed to the big game this season. His high rank in pass defense is also based on some horrible opposing passing offenses with the Falcons, Panthers, Jets and Steelers.

Cleveland isn’t exactly healthy in their passing rush as Myles Garrett suffered a car accident and Jadeveon Clowney is questionable. Starting corner Denzel Ward was also restricted in practice all week. This could easily be another high volume game for the huge wideout with good playing conditions at FirstEnergy Stadium. In two of the last three weeks, he has had eight catches for 113 yards and seven for 120 yards. Now he has even less competition for objectives in what, script-wise, should be a neutral matchup.

With his ability to pass deep against a secondary prone to explosive passing, I’m happy to have his over 66.5 yards in a matchup that should serve him well.

Mike Williams Prop: Over 65.5 yards (-115)

QB #1

Geno Smith is PFF’s No. 1 quarterback for four weeks. He completes 77% of his passes, which is 10 points above his expected completion rate. He ranks 2nd in RBSDM’s CPOE + EPA/Play composite and has a 320-yard performance under his belt.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are a big help, hitting 60% of targets for 240 yards last week while Rashaad Penny and the running game keep the defense honest. Smith’s passing total can be found at 235.5 yards (PointsBet), and with THE BLITZ projecting over 300 yards against a No. 20 New Orleans pass defense, I hit the over with confidence.

The Saints saw Kirk pass Cousins ​​in London last week, faced Baker Mayfield in Week 3 and saw a WR-less Tom Brady in Week 2. Despite the cupcake matchups, they still sit in the bottom third in EPA/Dropback.

With a solid indoor match, I’m expecting a goal on Sunday and betting Smith gets his third big game through the air.

GenoSmith Prop: Over 235 passing yards (-125)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Green no more

New Orleans wide receiver Chris Olave is the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year (+450) and was a monster on offense for the Saints. With all the receiving corps injuries, the former Buckeye will be back at the center of offense on Sunday against a Seattle defense that just gave up 378 yards to an exhausted Detroit offense.

Over the past three weeks, Olave has a 30% target percentage, including seven of Andy Dalton’s 28 passes (25% TS) last week. He’s faced the Bucs and Panthers, both top-15 pass defenders, at this stretch and now faces the worst defense in EPA/dropback in Detroit.

The goals are great, but the rookie has also done a lot with them as he has 2,294 yards as of week 2, which is 36% of the team’s total receiving yards. He’s welcomed the Saints three weeks in a row. Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston are likely to be out, while Jarvis Landry and Alvin Kamara are doubtful after being restricted in training on Thursday.

It’s an indoor game and Geno Smith has proven to be a very competent quarterback and could keep things tight, meaning a more neutral game script.

Even though his mileage goes from 59.5 to 63.5, I still hit the over in a perfect matchup. Olave only needs three or four catches to top that as he has one of the best air yards per reception in football at 13.9 and four catches from over 30 yards.

Chris Olave Prop: Over 63.5 yards (-110)

Buy cheap at Hurts

The Eagles are running at 54%, which is the third highest in the league. Miles Sanders has been a beast in the backfield, but Jalen Hurts has 31% of the team’s total rushing yards (205 of 661) this year.

He had 31 designed carries and his scrambles hit 6.71 yards per carry. Philadelphia goes into Week 5 as a five-point favorite on the road against a team from Arizona, which is ranked No. 21 in EPA/Play and has one of the deepest injury reports of the week — including key parts of defense.

Hurts is averaging 13 carries for 51 yards per game this season and still averaging 10 carries in the two games the Eagles played in weeks 2 and 3 with a positive game script.

His rushing total is down five yards to 47.5 over the past two weeks thanks to just 58 yards on the ground. It will be difficult for the Cardinals to keep hurts at 2.2 yards per carry like Jacksonville and Washington have at that stretch — two top-10 defenses in win rate versus run.

With Miles Sanders looking dangerous and that pass defense at No. 31 needing respect for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, Hurts will have room to run around on Sunday. THE BLITZ projects the QB to 58.75 rushing yards.

Jalen hurts prop: Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

The opportunity is greater than the production

It’s not sexy to take a Joe Mixon Above prop these days, but with persistent play-caller Zac Taylor giving him 20 carries a game, it’s hard not to take the over at a modest 59.5 total.

Mixon had 61 yards last week, including a seven-yard long. It’s hard not to ground at least a 10-yard gain when you’re getting 24 carries in a neutral game script.

The new O-Line is taking their sweet time coming together, but they’re heading into the Week 5 matchup against the Ravens healthy and with some extra rest. Baltimore ranks 18th in the Rush EPA and 14th in pass rate. The Ravens only see 22 rushing attempts per game but rank 23rd in yards per rush with a 5.0. The teams just didn’t run well against Jim Harbaugh’s team.

During the season, Baltimore faced three teams that rank in the bottom 7 by run rate percentage — the Jets, Dolphins and Bills. Cincinnati is rushing nearly 30 times per game, which ranks seventh in the league, and will likely draw on the break again on Sunday as Joe Burrow has already taken 16 sacks this season.

With Taylor being as predictable as they come, Mixon is sure to get plenty of carries on Sunday night and he will be at 100% after an extra break from playing Thursday in Week 4. Mixon only needs 3.0 ypc on 20 carries to top that number.

Joe Mixon Prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110)

pick out singletary

Buffalo’s Devin Singletary has 125 receiving yards over the past two weeks, but his receiving yard prop is 17.5 — just two yards more than his closing number in Week 1.

The Buffalo running back saw 88% of the snaps last week, completed 118 routes, the most by any NFL RB, and took over the Bills’ backfield. Sean McDermott’s offense is also 65% season.

A trend in the NFL is forcing these elite quarterbacks to throw under as cover-2’s rise takes multiple seasons. Allen is 16th in air yards per attempt and has no trouble checking down as singletary has 16 targets for 13 catches in the last two weeks.

Allen could also see 20-mile winds that could help the short passing game. Pittsburgh allows 39 receiving yards per game, which is a bottom 10 mark in football.

With a nearly 90% sub-20 receiving total back running more distances than any other RB in football, I’m hammering the over.

Devin singletary support: Over 17.5 yards (-110 at bet365)

Hall-er at you, boy

Breece Hall’s overall yards market is up from 60.5 to 64.5, and I still think he’s short considering he’s essentially assumed the No. 1 role in the Jets’ backfield Has.

The rookie RB rushed 17 times for 66 yards and a touchdown last week and grabbed 66% of the snaps. He is also second in the NFL in goals among RBs behind Austin Ekeler. His arrow is up and he could see nearly 20 touches again against a Miami team that won’t be nearly as productive with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Even with the Jets catching up, Hall’s dominance of the passing game makes him game script-proof as he ran a passing route on 66% of the Jets’ passing plays in Week 4.

The Dolphins rank ninth in win rate compared to run, but the Jets have faced three top-15 rushing defenses this season (Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and Hall has still managed, averaging 4, Get 7 yards per carry. With Zach Wilson in the middle, the Jets will be more conservative, as we saw in Week 4 – 29 rush attempts versus an average of 19 rush attempts in Weeks 1-3.

If you don’t have access to his full yards market, I’d side with him for 16.5+ yards, but Wilson doesn’t target his RBs as much as Joe Flacco does, so I’ll go with his rushing and receiving market meet .

Breece Hall Prop: Over 64.5 total yards (-115)

Season so far: 41-30, +9.92 units (risk of 1 unit per game)

NFL Week 5 Prop Betting Card

• Smith Over 235.5 passing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
• Williams for 65.5 yards (-115 on FanDuel)
• Olave Over 63.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Pain Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Mixon Over 59.6 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Singletary Gained over 17.5 yards (-110 at bet365)
• Halle Over 64.5 yards (-115 at bet365)

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